Texas Winter 2010-2011

[northjaxpro]

Sorry russham3. My bad. Welcome to Storm 2k!

A poor man's explanation:

AO -- Arctic Oscillation. When it is negative, it means very cold Arctic air is pooled to the north of us and high pressure is over the Arctic regions and lower pressure in the middle latitudes. This tends to drain it southward towards us.

NAO -- North Atlantic Oscillation. When this is negative, it usually means a large trough is over the eastern (and maybe central) US. When it is neutral or positive, it can mean ridging over the east and a trough over the west or central US (troughs mean stormy weather). Neutral can also mean a zonal flow.

PNA -- Pacific/North American Teleconnection -- a positive PNA means ridging over Hawaii and the intermountain region of the western US and often means below normal temps for our area.

MJO -- Madden-Julian Oscillation -- involves areas of storminess and convection in the tropics. When the MJO is in Phase 7 or 8, it tends to average colder and wetter than normal in our area.

Anyone feel free to chime in or improve my rough explanation. I'm sure it can be improved!

Portastorm, no improvement needed I couldn't have done it any better for the sake of brevity.

[russham3]

Sorry russham3. My bad. Welcome to Storm 2k!

A poor man's explanation:

AO -- Arctic Oscillation. When it is negative, it means very cold Arctic air is pooled to the north of us and high pressure is over the Arctic regions and lower pressure in the middle latitudes. This tends to drain it southward towards us.

NAO -- North Atlantic Oscillation. When this is negative, it usually means a large trough is over the eastern (and maybe central) US. When it is neutral or positive, it can mean ridging over the east and a trough over the west or central US (troughs mean stormy weather). Neutral can also mean a zonal flow.

PNA -- Pacific/North American Teleconnection -- a positive PNA means ridging over Hawaii and the intermountain region of the western US and often means below normal temps for our area.

MJO -- Madden-Julian Oscillation -- involves areas of storminess and convection in the tropics. When the MJO is in Phase 7 or 8, it tends to average colder and wetter than normal in our area.

Anyone feel free to chime in or improve my rough explanation. I'm sure it can be improved!

Thanks, that helps a lot.

[Ptarmigan]

The GFS model tends to be bullish within 9 to 16 days, than back off within 5 to 8 day period, and within 3 to 5 days later become bullish before the date. I think we should have a better idea within the next 3 to 5 days. I use the models as guidelines and use my own analysis.

I think a freeze is likely. I have seen models that around MLK Jr. Day that it could get another shot of cold winter.

[Snowman67]

Afternoon discussion out of Corpus says there is still a lot of uncertainty as to how cold things may get.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=CRPAFDCRP

[northtxboy]

I think we might get some snow/ice sunday night for the red river counties

[Ntxw]

I think we might get some snow/ice sunday night for the red river counties

Only the Euro has anything substantial right now and that's in far Northeast Texas. Nice trend though. GFS has a small dot of snow northeast of the metroplex.

[Kelarie]

I think we might get some snow/ice sunday night for the red river counties

Only the Euro has anything substantial right now and that's in far Northeast Texas. Nice trend though. GFS has a small dot of snow northeast of the metroplex.

Hey Ntxw, do you have a link for that? I am in NE and am curious, don't have any of my links at work. Thanks.

[northtxboy]

we have a low that will come into texas on sat and sunday,,I know that the low has to move for the cold air to come down late sunday into monday,,,is it possable for us to get the wrap around rain from that low and it meet up witht he cold air and get ice or snow?

[Ntxw]

Here's the site I use to look at snow amounts close range from the GFS and NAM

http://wxcaster.com/models_main.htm

Euro can't post or show because it's paid.

And for northtxboy, it's too early to know. We've gone about 100 different ways with the system. Right now it looks like it's an open wave and not a cutoff low that creates it's own super cold air so there won't be much wrap around moisture and it appears the bulk of the precip will be to our south. Best chances would be if the cold air arrives earlier or somehow the storm is entrenched from the building cold to our northeast, hence the best chances will be to our northeast.

[Snowman67]

This afternoon's discussion from NWS Houston

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HGXAFDHGX

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I dont like the Euro or GFS runs . I think its in the period where they have trouble forecasting though.Basically they lose the trend they had before, but they will come back 3-5 out. At least thats what im hoping happens

[Ntxw]

^ Wow that's pretty bullish of HGX when FW isn't even going to try at predicting such a thing this far out lol

A
CONCERN IS THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT THE ECMWF IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS GETTING CLOSE TO A RAIN SNOW
MIX AND THE ECMWF IS LOOKING LIKE A SNOW AND RAIN MIX FOR THE
NORTHERN AREAS (CLL-UTS- LIVINGSTON) NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY. HAVE
OPTED TO ADD RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE NORTHERN AREAS BUT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE ANY STICKING TO ROADWAYS BUT TREES AND
GRASSY AREAS MIGHT SEE A LITTLE ACCUMULATION.

College Station: Sunday: Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

[Longhornmaniac8]

I'm curious about the HGX forecast where they're already discussing another front for next weekend (+240 hrs, or so). Has that been discussed earlier in the thread as the "second blast," or are they referring to something entirely different?

[Ntxw]

I'm curious about the HGX forecast where they're already discussing another front for next weekend (+240 hrs, or so). Has that been discussed earlier in the thread as the "second blast," or are they referring to something entirely different?

It's been discussed. It's been somewhat confusing as many think it's one big BOOM but really the models have shown seperates fronts each colder than the previous.

[Portastorm]

You folks in North Texas are going to love this one out of NWSFO Fort Worth:

MUCH MORE INTERESTING WEATHER BEGINS ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER AND COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. YESTERDAYS AND LAST NIGHTS RUNS BROUGHT THE LOW THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TODAYS RUNS DO NOT BRING THE TROUGH AXIS
THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION WHICH IS MAKING THIS FORECAST
DIFFICULT. A FEW AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY NEED TO EMPHASIZED TO
ACCURATELY PORTRAY OUR CURRENT THINKING. FIRST...THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED COLDER AND FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THIS IS
CONCERNING BECAUSE IT ALLOWS A SURFACE LOW TO WRAP UP AROUND 6Z
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD PROVIDE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE SYSTEM
AND ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROWAL. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROWEL
COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IF SURFACE TEMPS ARE
COLD ENOUGH. SECOND...THE ECMWF PROGS THE SYSTEM TO BE CLOSED AT
500MB UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN ITS CENTERED NEAR EL PASO.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH MOVE THE SYSTEM OVER SOUTH TEXAS
AS AN OPEN WAVE AT 500MB. THIS LIMITS THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT
IS PULLED INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING. CONVERSELY...THE CANADIAN
KEEPS THE SYSTEM CLOSED AT 500MB. THIS SOLUTION SUGGESTS MORE COLD
AIR COULD BE IN PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE POTENTIAL TROWAL
FEATURE MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY MOVES OVER THE AREA. IN
CONCLUSION...OUR CURRENTLY FORECAST HAS COLD RAIN ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME LIGHT WINTER
PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS MONDAY.
CURRENT MODEL TIMING IS TOO SLOW...AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE WITH
ARCTIC FRONTS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. NO PRECIP IS IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH STRONG ARCTIC FRONTS LIKE THIS OFTEN PRODUCE
STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WHICH CAN RESULT IN PRECIP
PRODUCTION WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE.

THE MUCH DISCUSSED ARCTIC PATTERN REMAINS PROGGED SO COLD
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN 30S AND LOWS IN 20S....ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

[Cuda17]

^ Wow that's pretty bullish of HGX when FW isn't even going to try at predicting such a thing this far out lol

A
CONCERN IS THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT THE ECMWF IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS GETTING CLOSE TO A RAIN SNOW
MIX AND THE ECMWF IS LOOKING LIKE A SNOW AND RAIN MIX FOR THE
NORTHERN AREAS (CLL-UTS- LIVINGSTON) NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY. HAVE
OPTED TO ADD RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THESE NORTHERN AREAS BUT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE ANY STICKING TO ROADWAYS BUT TREES AND
GRASSY AREAS MIGHT SEE A LITTLE ACCUMULATION.

College Station: Sunday: Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

WOW! Now I'm really confused?!?!? Models are backing off... AFD's are getting crazy! Two days ago, the models were trending a significant winter weather story and the AFD's were shunning the models. Complete switcharoo... Oh yeah, and hi everyone, i've been lurking for a few days

[Ntxw]

Welcome to the board Cuda17! Volatile weather patterns call for volatile times! This is much better than soaps, wouldn't you say? The suspense of twists and turns are killing me!

[Longhornmaniac8]

THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED COLDER AND FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THIS IS
CONCERNING BECAUSE IT ALLOWS A SURFACE LOW TO WRAP UP AROUND 6Z
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD PROVIDE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE SYSTEM
AND ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROWAL.

portastorm,

With these models showing motion southward, do you think there is any hope for those of us in Central Texas for any wintery weather?

[Cuda17]

Welcome to the board Cuda17! Volatile weather patterns call for volatile times! This is much better than soaps, wouldn't you say? The suspense of twists and turns are killing me!

Ha! I totally agree! Thanks for the welcome Ntxw! The last two days have been dragging for me, and I believe it's because I keep updating this forum and a local one (khou) to watch for the new discussions about the models. Little to no work getting done

[Kelarie]

Well this just out for us in Texarkana 30% of snow/sleet Sunday night...lets see what happens from here on out. Hasn't been an update from the Shreveport NWS yet, waiting for it, should be anytime now.

Ntxw thanks for that page!!