Texas Winter 2010-2011

[vbhoutex]

Welcome to all our "newbies". We're glad you have chosen to join us. DO NOT hesitate to ask questions if you don't understand something that is posted. I see a few are not shy and that is good. We have a lot of very knowledgeable weather people here, both Professional Mets and amateurs, and they are good about answering questions. That is how we all learn.

[orangeblood]

THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED COLDER AND FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THIS IS
CONCERNING BECAUSE IT ALLOWS A SURFACE LOW TO WRAP UP AROUND 6Z
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD PROVIDE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE SYSTEM
AND ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROWAL.

portastorm,

With these models showing motion southward, do you think there is any hope for those of us in Central Texas for any wintery weather?

There is a model out there (Navy Model) that depicts a big winter storm breaking out early Monday from Austin to College Station and points north. With that being said, the Navy model is not used very often and is probably the most inaccurate of all the models.

But hey, a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then - just like the aggies find a win over the longhorns in football a few times a decade

[Turtle]

Well at least my NWS is still showing chilly temps. I'm I20 East Texas.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 38.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 23.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 36.

Here is a snippet from the Shreveport forecast discussion:

THE SFC-850MB LOW ACROSS SRN LA WILL ENHANCE COLD ADVECTION FROM THE
MID-SOUTH REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE OPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE
A TRANSITION OVER TO A LIGHT SLEET/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SE OK/SW AR/ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC-850MB
LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY

DID INSERT MENTION OF LIGHT SLEET/SNOW/RAIN MIX FOR SE OK/SW
AR MONDAY...AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW THAT WILL DRIFT E ACROSS THE
PLAINS/MS VALLEY MONDAY/TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PLUNGE A DEEP ARCTIC
AIR MASS SEWRD INTO THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES NOT SEEN THUS
FAR THIS WINTER SEASON...ESPECIALLY AS THE SNOW PACK SHOULD BE FARTHER
S ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN CO/NE/KS/POSSIBLY NRN OK. ANY WINTRY MIX ACROSS
THE NRN ZONES MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BE
LIGHT...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. BY THE TIME TEMPS ARE ABLE TO FALL TO NEAR FREEZING MONDAY
NIGHT...DEEP LYR MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE DIMINISHING...THUS AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF A WINTRY THREAT FOR OUR REGION OTHER THAN THE
PROLONGED COLD TEMPERATURES INVADING OUR AREA. DID LOWER TEMPS QUITE A
BIT IN THE EXTENDED NEXT WEEK...SUCH THAT MUCH OF THE AREA MAY REMAIN
BELOW 40 DEGREES FOR AT LEAST A 48-60 HR PERIOD.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED COLDER AND FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THIS IS
CONCERNING BECAUSE IT ALLOWS A SURFACE LOW TO WRAP UP AROUND 6Z
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD PROVIDE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE SYSTEM
AND ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROWAL.

But hey, a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then - just like the aggies find a win over the longhorns in football a few times a decade

That is an awesome comparison I love it. Hook'em!

There's some aggie on the board right now typing away about, "hey, what about the late eighties and early nineties?"

Btw, Porta, Your explanations are always awesome, thats why you deserve a freak snowstorm out of this thing. I'd say those definitions were pretty rich poor mans interpretations.

[Portastorm]

THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED COLDER AND FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THIS IS
CONCERNING BECAUSE IT ALLOWS A SURFACE LOW TO WRAP UP AROUND 6Z
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD PROVIDE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE SYSTEM
AND ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROWAL.

portastorm,

With these models showing motion southward, do you think there is any hope for those of us in Central Texas for any wintery weather?

The "trowal" to which they refer usually is a warm tongue of air which wraps north and west of a surface low. I haven't seen anything suggesting the low would be so far south as to affect us that way. Think all the surface dynamics will be well north of us. We might see some light precip after fropa but heck, that's probably pushing it. Sorry. You know me ... if I had an inkling of snow or ice for our area, I'd be the first to post about it!

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
348 PM CST WED JAN 5 2011

.DISCUSSION...
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW QUICKLY CLEARED OUT OUR SKIES THIS
MORNING RESULTING A CLEAR...SUNNY DAY. EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME
TOMORROW WITH SIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AS THE AREA REMAINS IN WEAK
CAA. FRIDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE MORE OF THE SAME. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
WEAK AND WESTERLY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH A SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MUCH MORE INTERESTING WEATHER BEGINS ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER AND COLDER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. YESTERDAYS AND LAST NIGHTS RUNS BROUGHT THE LOW THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TODAYS RUNS DO NOT BRING THE TROUGH AXIS
THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION WHICH IS MAKING THIS FORECAST
DIFFICULT. A FEW AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY NEED TO EMPHASIZED TO
ACCURATELY PORTRAY OUR CURRENT THINKING. FIRST...THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED COLDER AND FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THIS IS
CONCERNING BECAUSE IT ALLOWS A SURFACE LOW TO WRAP UP AROUND 6Z
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD PROVIDE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE SYSTEM
AND ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROWAL. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROWEL
COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IF SURFACE TEMPS ARE
COLD ENOUGH. SECOND...THE ECMWF PROGS THE SYSTEM TO BE CLOSED AT
500MB UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN ITS CENTERED NEAR EL PASO.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH MOVE THE SYSTEM OVER SOUTH TEXAS
AS AN OPEN WAVE AT 500MB. THIS LIMITS THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT
IS PULLED INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING. CONVERSELY...THE CANADIAN
KEEPS THE SYSTEM CLOSED AT 500MB. THIS SOLUTION SUGGESTS MORE COLD
AIR COULD BE IN PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE POTENTIAL TROWAL
FEATURE MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY MOVES OVER THE AREA. IN
CONCLUSION...OUR CURRENTLY FORECAST HAS COLD RAIN ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME LIGHT WINTER
PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS MONDAY.
CURRENT MODEL TIMING IS TOO SLOW...AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE WITH
ARCTIC FRONTS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. NO PRECIP IS IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH STRONG ARCTIC FRONTS LIKE THIS OFTEN PRODUCE
STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WHICH CAN RESULT IN PRECIP
PRODUCTION WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE.

THE MUCH DISCUSSED ARCTIC PATTERN REMAINS PROGGED SO COLD
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN 30S AND LOWS IN 20S....ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

FTW still see's something but not as severe.

[Longhornmaniac8]

Thanks for the reply orangeblood (and right you are about the damn Aggies!), good to know. As limited as my knowledge is about meteorology (having only taken an Earth Science class with a meteorology component, and, of course, a general interest in the topic), I know how these things tend to fluctuate back and forth. I'm glad to see I'm like so many others here that get (over) excited about things, only to wind up somewhat disappointed. I'm trying really hard not to get my hopes up, but it's pretty hard not to, since the general weather patterns seem to be shaping up fairly well for a good blast of cold air (and hopefully, some precipitation, too!).

Thanks for the welcome, vbhoutex!

I do have one question, what is a trowel?

Edit: answered above by Portastorm!

[iorange55]

Now the 18z is looking a little colder next week and it was the one "warm" one. These models sure are confusing of late. No telling what will happen.

[Portastorm]

Now the 18z is looking a little colder next week and it was the one "warm" one. These models sure are confusing of late. No telling what will happen.

Yeah, I notice at 6z Wed, the 18z run has a 1056mb high edging into Montana while the 12z run had it at 1050mb. Also, the 18z run has the front through the entire state at this time while the 12z run had it halfway through. Interesting.

[BigB0882]

Is the freezing line well into the Gulf on the 18z and completely clearing all of TX? Wow!

[Ntxw]

18z GFS has the prolonged cold snap again with maybe a small blip but shoves new cold in just in time. Sigh...the rollercoaster continues.

[iorange55]

If the 18z were correct North Texas would be blow freezing from Tuesday all the way really into the next week with perhaps temps reaching freezing maybe briefly over the weekend before more cold comes.

So, basically we don't know what will come out of this.

[Ntxw]

If the 18z were correct North Texas would be blow freezing from Tuesday all the way really into the next week with perhaps temps reaching freezing maybe briefly over the weekend before more cold comes.

So, basically we don't know what will come out of this.

And the storm that is supposed to crash into the high disrupting it, is the mechanism for another big storm between the transition from cold to colder...yeah I'm clueless.

[Portastorm]

Is the freezing line well into the Gulf on the 18z and completely clearing all of TX? Wow!

Well, I should clarify ... the 850mb zero-degree isotherm is ... but that doesn't match up with freezing temps at the surface. Here it is:

[setxwxgurl]

Thanks for the reply orangeblood (and right you are about the damn Aggies!), good to know. As limited as my knowledge is about meteorology (having only taken an Earth Science class with a meteorology component, and, of course, a general interest in the topic), I know how these things tend to fluctuate back and forth. I'm glad to see I'm like so many others here that get (over) excited about things, only to wind up somewhat disappointed. I'm trying really hard not to get my hopes up, but it's pretty hard not to, since the general weather patterns seem to be shaping up fairly well for a good blast of cold air (and hopefully, some precipitation, too!).

Thanks for the welcome, vbhoutex!

I do have one question, what is a trowel?

Edit: answered above by Portastorm!

A TROWAL is a relatively narrow band of relatively warm and moist air aloft that wraps around to the north and west of a mature cyclone. As this moisture moves north and then is turned cyclonically to the southwest, it begins to slowly rise producing an extensive area of clouds and light precipitation

[srainhoutx]

Hey, what's all this talk about warm and dry and no pattern change? Seriously, it's looking mighty interesting folks. Stay Tuned!

[DonWrk]

Does anyone know how these models compare to the snow storm last year? And is this usually normal how the models are showing now, going from a decent consistency for a few days then throwing some loops a few days later? I guess my question is, from what we've seen in the models so far, is this normal? Or is this a little rare seeing them like this?

[Ntxw]

Hey, what's all this talk about warm and dry and no pattern change? Seriously, it's looking mighty interesting folks. Stay Tuned!

I subscribed to your premium services at a hefty price, still hoping you'll deliver them goods!

[srainhoutx]

Does anyone know how these models compare to the snow storm last year? And is this usually normal how the models are showing now, going from a decent consistency for a few days then throwing some loops a few days later? I guess my question is, from what we've seen in the models so far, is this normal? Or is this a little rare seeing them like this?

This year has been extremely difficult via the models in the medium range. Last year the signals were fairly clear with a strong El Nino and an active STJ. This season the -AO/-NAO and an extreme blocking regime (Greenland Block) have caused fits in the model world, IMO.

[newtotex]

Whats up to all, this is my first post and im new to Texas, hence the name hah. With the talk of the cold thats going on, I had one question, are lows in the 10's-20's unusual here? I moved from Alabam and that isnt really that unusual (atleast the 20's), usually occuring a few times each winter, even down to the gulf. This is an awsome forum to read by the way, keep up the good work!