Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Mattie]

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I log on a lot as a guest from work . . . .especially since I just "read" . . .

[iorange55]

So just getting going here this morning and I see not too much has changed. The 6z looked pretty crazy. I guess it's turning into this front next week will be a taste of what is to come. We've seen it predict crazy temps only to come back up again just recently, however this looks a bit more realistic.

Maybe record cold is still to come? Who knows. I'll hope for snow sometime this coming weekend and week and then hope for the record cold later. Still think the models are showing the cold this coming week leaving too fast, I think it'll stay pretty chill for a longer amount of time. Which might set the whole country up nicely for a huge Arctic front.

[Ntxw]

Busy today so not a lot of posting BUT! Pretty much everything that has been mentioned sounds good, no big changes. I'd like to add that my personal hunch is that the models still are not initializing the SW low over the eastern Pacific well. It has still yet to move so the models will be having a hard time hence the constant slowing down of it. Don't be surprise if it takes it's sweet time .

[Mr. Weather]

with this Arctic Front will Houston see any snow from it ?

[iorange55]

with this Arctic Front will Houston see any snow from it ?

Which front? Snow is not looking likely this weekend/week for Houston, but in the longer range who knows. Too far out to tell. Things change constantly so don't be surprised for a few surprises before all of this craziness ends.

[Mr. Weather]

the front that they say we are going to get towards the end of next week

[iorange55]

the front that they say we are going to get towards the end of next week

No way to tell this early. I hope so! If the 6z temps came even close to being right (which isn't likely) but if they did then it would definitely be cold enough for snow. It would also be coming later than the end of next week. The start of the week after that seems more likely.

[Tejas89]

FW office doesn't seem as bullish as others past 7 days..

BEYOND 7-DAY FORECAST...STILL APPEARS SEVERE ARCTIC AIR
WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO CANADA.

[Stormcenter]

They must be reading the write ups from Accu-guys.

FW office doesn't seem as bullish as others past 7 days..

BEYOND 7-DAY FORECAST...STILL APPEARS SEVERE ARCTIC AIR
WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO CANADA.

[iorange55]

FW office doesn't seem as bullish as others past 7 days..

BEYOND 7-DAY FORECAST...STILL APPEARS SEVERE ARCTIC AIR
WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO CANADA.

That was in the morning discussion right? Maybe now with the 12z showing it coming down as well they might get on board. The 12z doesn't show it as bad here in Texas. It does show the air spilling down into the country, though.

[orangeblood]

A good indicator of where this Arctic Air will head next weekend is to check out the 500mb flow charts and see how/where the Hudson Bay Polar Vortex sets up. For example, just look at the differences between the 06Z GFS run and this mornings 12Z run. The 06Z run shows the vortex much deeper and further south (even dropping into the lower Great Lakes region at one point) than what the 12Z run is showing.

[HockeyTx82]

A good indicator of where this Arctic Air will head next weekend is to check out the 500mb flow charts and see how/where the Hudson Bay Polar Vortex sets up. For example, just look at the differences between the 06Z GFS run and this mornings 12Z run. The 06Z run shows the vortex much deeper and further south (even dropping into the lower Great Lakes region at one point) than what the 12Z run is showing.

What does each mean in terms of cold coming south? I assume one means no cold and the other means cold?

[Ntxw]

Anyone look at the Canadian? Winter precip north Texas. 540 thickness is a bit far but looks like underneath the low should provide sufficient cooling, now if we get the cutoff as per EC, different animal.

[orangeblood]

A good indicator of where this Arctic Air will head next weekend is to check out the 500mb flow charts and see how/where the Hudson Bay Polar Vortex sets up. For example, just look at the differences between the 06Z GFS run and this mornings 12Z run. The 06Z run shows the vortex much deeper and further south (even dropping into the lower Great Lakes region at one point) than what the 12Z run is showing.

What does each mean in terms of cold coming south? I assume one means no cold and the other means cold?

The deeper, further south version of the Vortex is what you like to look for in prolonged Severe Arctic outbreaks. Cold high pressure systems will come down one after the other along the west side of the Vortex from Western Canada.

[northtxboy]

so the question is,,,is north texas going to get snow/ice late this weekend,,,I think we will but I would like the imput of some of you that have been doing this for awhile.

[HockeyTx82]

I think this forecast about sums it up for next week. Thoughts?

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[newtotex]

So what are our chances now for getting winter precip in N. Texas this weekend, or is it still to far out to tell?

[northtxboy]

I think we will see snow/ice in north texas sunday night and into monday,,,how much is still in question

[newtotex]

I think we will see snow/ice in north texas sunday night and into monday,,,how much is still in question

How far out do you usually have to get until you can pinpoint that? Would we know by tmrw? Hopefully it'll be snow rather than ice

[gboudx]

I think we will see snow/ice in north texas sunday night and into monday,,,how much is still in question

Can you tell us why it is that you think this area will see ice/snow? Do you think the ULL will progress slower, allowing the cold air to be deeper when it arrives? Do you see this in the models or something? Just curious. I'm not buying into anything at this point, having been burned beyond a 3 day time period in the past.