Texas Winter 2010-2011

[orangeblood]

Yeah, a few years ago we had 3 inches here in Baton Rouge and just 2 days before the snow fell it was in the 70's. It still stuck, even in the streets after a little while!! If it comes down hard enough, it piles up and then begins acting like an ice box.

That system was a cold core upper level low that moved across the gulf coast states and brought down very cold air aloft down to the surface. This system is not forecasted to be nearly as cold aloft. It doesn't appear that this system will be cold enough to produce any significant precip that causes any problems, school days off, etc.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Brandon8181]

Anything that does fall will probably melt on contact due to temps being in the 60's most of this week.

Now anything that falls towards the middle of next week will surely stick around.

I would have to disagree,,,we might not see much on the main roads but grass and trees will hold it,,bridges/overpass's will freeze over I am sure[/quote]

You're sure, huh? well that's a pretty bold forecast for this far out considering the Arctic front probably won't arrive until sometime Monday. This is well after precip ends with the Sunday system.[/quote]

I've got to say, the timing will be VERY close. I think there is a realistic chance that the northern counties of Texas could see a chance for a some kind of winter mix; however, I also feel like there is a realistic chance it could go the other way.

It's just OH so close.

[newtotex]

Which weather site is usually the most accurate with temps and all that? Weather.com has us getting cold here in Denton but warming up into the 50's-60's by late next week, does this mean the cold wont be sticking around as long as thought?

[iorange55]

Which weather site is usually the most accurate with temps and all that? Weather.com has us getting cold here in Denton but warming up into the 50's-60's by late next week, does this mean the cold wont be sticking around as long as thought?

I'd just advise you to go to noaa.gov and enter your zip code. Look at their forecasts and read their discussions. I don't follow weather.com or any of the other sites really. Like I said before I don't see as warming that much or that fast with the cold coming down.

Still need to see how cold it will get and we're still waiting to be able to track the cold that will come down here. We don't even truly know for sure what this Weekend storm will do. Lots of uncertainty.

[CaptinCrunch]

Here's the problem with these type of weather forecast.

1. Anytime very dence and cold arctic air is involved the models have a hard time with it. The reason is that the dence arctic air is right at the surface and models don't seem to handle it well. Best thing to do is look at the temp readings upstream to get an idea of where the front truly is.

2. With the low out west and whether or not it closes off is the big question, as that will influance the precip values.

3. Timing is everything, and I dont see the upper levels being cold enough to support snow at the surface, however this could turn into a freezing rain or sleet system with the precip following into the cold dence arctic air at the surface and freezing on contact if we can get temp that cold.

4. How long will the cold stay in place? I believe temps will be just below freezing for highs most of next week with lows in the lower 20's to upper teens. By saturday things will warm back into the 40's before the next shot and we see highs in the mid 30's for a few more days before the patteren goes zonal late Jan.








The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Portastorm]

Kudos to those of you who are using the proper disclaimer when you are making a forecast. For those of you who are new, we have a rule that when you make a forecast or prediction, you need to use the following disclaimer:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Rgv20]

Afternoon discussion from the NWS in Brownsville

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE
LONG TERM REVOLVES AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND RAIN IT WILL BRING...AND THE SUBSEQUENT POLAR
OUTBREAK BARRELLING SOUTHWARD BEHIND IT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL TEXAS. PRECIP MAY START DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY...BUT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW ITSELF. MAIN EFFECTS FOR RAIN ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT...A COMBINATION OF UPPER DYNAMICS AND SFC LOW TRACKING
THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS. MOST DYNAMICS WILL STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH...KEEPING HEAVIEST RAINFALL NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS COULD STILL SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. DYNAMICS WILL ALSO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THUNDER
ALONG WITH THE RAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES OVERHEAD AROUND DAWN SUNDAY...SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...ALLOWING DRIER AIR AT THE SFC. DRY AIR SHOULD HAVE SKIES
ALMOST CLEAR BY NOON...WITH FAIR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE 40S...BUT MASSIVE
POLAR OUTBREAK WONT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE MONDAY WITH TEMPS PLUNGING
FURTHER INTO THE 30S MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH WEDNESDAY ARE GOING TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME CRAWLING OUT OF THE
40S AREAWIDE WITH CONTINUED STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.

[txagwxman]

12z Canadian is interesting for NE TX on Sunday. 850 mb temps are < 0F, but thicknesses are > 540. Sleet (TXK/GGG).

GEM also colder next week.

ECMWF 28F snowing TXK Sunday afternoon.

[iorange55]

I like Brownsville's wording "Massive Polar Outbreak" has a nice ring to it.

[Rgv20]

I like Brownsville's wording "Massive Polar Outbreak" has a nice ring to it.

haha yesterday they had it as a "Strong Cold Front"

[CaptinCrunch]

12z Canadian is interesting for NE TX on Sunday. 850 mb temps are < 0F, but thicknesses are > 540. Sleet (TXK/GGG).

GEM also colder next week.

txagwxman, thanks for supporting my 10 day outlook...lol

The upper low is tracking to slow to be here Saturday, looking more like Sunday afternoon thru Monday evening and yes it could be very interesting come Sunday evening into monday morning for NTX.

[northtxboy]

12z Canadian is interesting for NE TX on Sunday. 850 mb temps are < 0F, but thicknesses are > 540. Sleet (TXK/GGG).

GEM also colder next week.

txagwxman, thanks for supporting my 10 day outlook...lol

The upper low is tracking to slow to be here Saturday, looking more like Sunday afternoon thru Monday evening and yes it could be very interesting come Sunday evening into monday morning for NTX.

I 100% agree

[Mr. Weather]

hoping for snow in Houston maybe not this weekend but maybe the next

[northtxboy]

hoping for snow in Houston maybe not this weekend but maybe the next

maybe but still to far out.

[gboudx]

The upper low is tracking to slow to be here Saturday, looking more like Sunday afternoon thru Monday evening and yes it could be very interesting come Sunday evening into monday morning for NTX.

As we would say down in South La, Sunday is looking like good gumbo weather.

[wxman57]

whats the best website to go to for about a 15 day forecast ???

I don't know of any "good" 15 day forecast sites. Any such website would simply display raw GFS model guidance, which may fluctuate considerably with each 6-hr run. They're only as good as the latest GFS run.

We're focused on the local Houston weather on the KHOU weather forum (http://forums.khou.com/). I post under the same nickname there.

[Mr. Weather]

thanks i will check it out !!!

[BigB0882]

The upper low is tracking to slow to be here Saturday, looking more like Sunday afternoon thru Monday evening and yes it could be very interesting come Sunday evening into monday morning for NTX.

As we would say down in South La, Sunday is looking like good gumbo weather.

For sure!! The ironic thing is that I had gumbo last night and today I am making chili. Why couldn't I wait for the better weather? lol

[Ntxw]

Pinwheel still isn't really moving. It needs to make some ground if it's going to arrive this weekend.

[WacoWx]

I really appreciate those sat images NTXW!