Texas Winter 2010-2011

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Pinwheel still isn't really moving. It needs to make some ground if it's going to arrive this weekend.

slower the better though right?;)

[CaptinCrunch]

I really appreciate those sat images NTXW!

There is nothing to push the low along, and this will increase the chance of wintery precip over parts of texas as long as the arctic air slides in first sometime on sunday afternoon. That system is at least 3 days out right now and might not cross Texas till Monday morning.

[Kelarie]

This is from the Shreveport guys for us in NE Texas...they have taken out the sleet/snow for us Sunday and Monday and have just rain.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANGE...SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST. EAST TEXAS WILL SEE THE RAIN FIRST BEGINNING SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING THE MOISTURE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A WET AND COLD DAY AS THE LOW
TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER LEVELS ABOVE FREEZING JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIP
ALL LIQUID. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HE TRACK OF THE LOW...AND THIS
WILL DETERMINE IF ANY OF THE CWA GETS FROZEN PRECIP. GENERALLY FOR
THIS REGION...IF THE PRECIP BEGINS AS RAIN...IT WILL END AS RAIN.
AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...MUCH COLDER AIR
BEGINS TO ADVECT SOUTH INTO THE ARKLATEX. NEXT SHORT WAVE EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE MONDAY EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME SNOW. BUT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOISTURE LIMITED AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30.

AFTER MONDAY...DRIER AIR AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.

[Portastorm]

I really appreciate those sat images NTXW!

There is nothing to push the low along, and this will increase the chance of wintery precip over parts of texas as long as the arctic air slides in first sometime on sunday afternoon. That system is at least 3 days out right now and might not cross Texas till Monday morning.

I'm not sure what you're looking besides the current picture. The 12z GFS progs at 250mb and 300mb show strong southwest to west winds which will push that upper low along just fine. I would be very surprised if the upper low slowed down that much.

[CaptinCrunch]

This is from the Shreveport guys for us in NE Texas...they have taken out the sleet/snow for us Sunday and Monday and have just rain.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANGE...SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST. EAST TEXAS WILL SEE THE RAIN FIRST BEGINNING SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING THE MOISTURE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A WET AND COLD DAY AS THE LOW
TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER LEVELS ABOVE FREEZING JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIP
ALL LIQUID. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HE TRACK OF THE LOW...AND THIS
WILL DETERMINE IF ANY OF THE CWA GETS FROZEN PRECIP. GENERALLY FOR
THIS REGION...IF THE PRECIP BEGINS AS RAIN...IT WILL END AS RAIN.
AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...MUCH COLDER AIR
BEGINS TO ADVECT SOUTH INTO THE ARKLATEX. NEXT SHORT WAVE EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE MONDAY EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME SNOW. BUT
WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOISTURE LIMITED AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30.

AFTER MONDAY...DRIER AIR AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.

Upper Low is tracking slower than this outlook, plus the 2nd wave behind it is starting to show some good spin. Third wave looks to be futher north and should track across the central US.

[CaptinCrunch]

I really appreciate those sat images NTXW!

There is nothing to push the low along, and this will increase the chance of wintery precip over parts of texas as long as the arctic air slides in first sometime on sunday afternoon. That system is at least 3 days out right now and might not cross Texas till Monday morning.

I'm not sure what you're looking besides the current picture. The 12z GFS progs at 250mb and 300mb show strong southwest to west winds which will push that upper low along just fine. I would be very surprised if the upper low slowed down that much.

What I ment to say was the upper low has stalled some and does not look to make it into Texas till late Sunday into early monday. FTW NWS has already taken the rain out of the Saturday forcast and has moved it to Sunday/Sunday night and into Monday.

EDIT: Now FTW has put rain back in for Sat night....LOL, gotta love the science

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
352 PM CST THU JAN 6 2011

.DISCUSSION...
BEAUTIFUL DAY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH MUCH OF THE SAME
EXPECTED TOMORROW. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXPECTED WEATHER CHANGE IS A WIND SHIFT FROM
WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY. SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS FEW AS COLD AIR SLOWLY FILTERS SOUTH.

CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE MODELS PROG WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS LIFT SATURATES A LAYER
BETWEEN 600-700 MB AROUND 20Z OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. PRECIPITATION
FROM THAT LAYER THEN MOISTENS THE LAYER BELOW IT BY 06Z RESULTING
IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. BY 12Z SUNDAY
PRECIP TOTAL ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND ONE FOURTH OF AN INCH SOUTH
OF A COMANCHE TO ATHENS LINE AND AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
ELSEWHERE. THE BEST FORCING REMAINS SOUTH SO NO CONVECTIVE STORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY. VARIOUS SOLUTIONS APPEAR FAVORED BY THE
MODELS...BUT NO TWO MODELS AGREE ON THE PRECIP TYPE AND STRENGTH
OF THE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON TIMING BUT NOT ON STRENGTH.
THE ECMWF HAS A STRONGER...COLDER SYSTEM WHICH RESULTS IN WINTER
PRECIP AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. THE GFS IS WARMER AND WEAKER WITH ONLY
RAIN DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE 12Z CANADIAN AND 12Z NAM HAVE A
MUCH STRONGER...BUT SLOWER SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM IS TOO
WARM FOR ANY WINTER PRECIP. THE CANADIAN IS COLD AND STRONG AND
HAS AN AREA OF SNOWFALL IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF...NAM...AND CANADIAN ALL WRAP UP THE
SYSTEM...RESULTING IN PRECIP LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. ALL THIS TO SAY...THE MODELS HAVE YET TO CONVERGE ON A
SOLUTION...LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SURPRISINGLY...THE GEFS SHOWS ONLY A MODERATE SPREAD OF ITS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...NONE OF WHICH HAVE THE NAM/CANADIAN
SOLUTION...ONLY ADDING TO THE DIFFICULTY OF THE FORECAST. LEFT
SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW FOR A FEW REASONS...IN ORDER OF
IMPORTANCE. ONE...PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
TWO...TEMPS IN MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TOO WARM. THREE...DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE IS NOT SATURATED IN NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS.
FOUR...GEFS AND SREF ENSEMBLES DO NOT FAVOR WINTER PRECIP. IN
CONCLUSION...WINTER PRECIP APPEARS POSSIBLE BUT NOT PROBABLE AT
THIS TIME.

ARCTIC FRONT APPEARS ON TRACK FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE FROM SUNDAYS UPPER LOW SO A QUICK DROP IN
TEMPERATURES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED. COLD AIR
SHOULD FILTER IN MONDAY NIGHT AS WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY INCREASE.
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY RESULTING IN WIND CHILL VALUES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TUESDAY MORNING AND LOW 20S TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH BUILD A 1040MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...COLDEST TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. GRID
INTERPOLATIONS FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE HIGHS BELOW FREEZING
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...KEPT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S SINCE
ITS SO FAR INTO THE FORECAST AND THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW.

So they have no idea whats going to happen....awesome

[gboudx]

So they have no idea whats going to happen....awesome

Time to put the weather rock out in the backyard for it's prediction.

[Turtle]

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30.
Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 42.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 24.
Wednesday: A slight chance of rain and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

They bumped up the temps about 5 degrees, but now they show precip. Marshall, TX which is near I-20 East Texas.

[northtxboy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
352 PM CST THU JAN 6 2011

.DISCUSSION...
BEAUTIFUL DAY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH MUCH OF THE SAME
EXPECTED TOMORROW. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXPECTED WEATHER CHANGE IS A WIND SHIFT FROM
WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY. SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS FEW AS COLD AIR SLOWLY FILTERS SOUTH.

CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE MODELS PROG WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS LIFT SATURATES A LAYER
BETWEEN 600-700 MB AROUND 20Z OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. PRECIPITATION
FROM THAT LAYER THEN MOISTENS THE LAYER BELOW IT BY 06Z RESULTING
IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. BY 12Z SUNDAY
PRECIP TOTAL ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND ONE FOURTH OF AN INCH SOUTH
OF A COMANCHE TO ATHENS LINE AND AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
ELSEWHERE. THE BEST FORCING REMAINS SOUTH SO NO CONVECTIVE STORMS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY. VARIOUS SOLUTIONS APPEAR FAVORED BY THE
MODELS...BUT NO TWO MODELS AGREE ON THE PRECIP TYPE AND STRENGTH
OF THE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON TIMING BUT NOT ON STRENGTH.
THE ECMWF HAS A STRONGER...COLDER SYSTEM WHICH RESULTS IN WINTER
PRECIP AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. THE GFS IS WARMER AND WEAKER WITH ONLY
RAIN DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE 12Z CANADIAN AND 12Z NAM HAVE A
MUCH STRONGER...BUT SLOWER SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM IS TOO
WARM FOR ANY WINTER PRECIP. THE CANADIAN IS COLD AND STRONG AND
HAS AN AREA OF SNOWFALL IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF...NAM...AND CANADIAN ALL WRAP UP THE
SYSTEM...RESULTING IN PRECIP LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. ALL THIS TO SAY...THE MODELS HAVE YET TO CONVERGE ON A
SOLUTION...LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SURPRISINGLY...THE GEFS SHOWS ONLY A MODERATE SPREAD OF ITS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...NONE OF WHICH HAVE THE NAM/CANADIAN
SOLUTION...ONLY ADDING TO THE DIFFICULTY OF THE FORECAST. LEFT
SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW FOR A FEW REASONS...IN ORDER OF
IMPORTANCE. ONE...PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
TWO...TEMPS IN MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TOO WARM. THREE...DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE IS NOT SATURATED IN NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS.
FOUR...GEFS AND SREF ENSEMBLES DO NOT FAVOR WINTER PRECIP. IN
CONCLUSION...WINTER PRECIP APPEARS POSSIBLE BUT NOT PROBABLE AT
THIS TIME.

ARCTIC FRONT APPEARS ON TRACK FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE FROM SUNDAYS UPPER LOW SO A QUICK DROP IN
TEMPERATURES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED. COLD AIR
SHOULD FILTER IN MONDAY NIGHT AS WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY INCREASE.
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY RESULTING IN WIND CHILL VALUES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TUESDAY MORNING AND LOW 20S TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH BUILD A 1040MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...COLDEST TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING. GRID
INTERPOLATIONS FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE HIGHS BELOW FREEZING
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...KEPT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S SINCE
ITS SO FAR INTO THE FORECAST AND THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW.

So they have no idea whats going to happen....awesome

ya I agree they have no idea,,I think we will get some snow out of this

[Tireman4]

So they have no idea whats going to happen....awesome

Time to put the weather rock out in the backyard for it's prediction.

Or the Magic 8 Ball!!!

[Ntxw]

JB thinks that if the metroplex misses heavy snow sector this weekend, the next shot is midweek which makes sense.

[Longhornmaniac8]

So I have a question about the water vapor image (which is really neat, BTW)

As I understand it, the storm system slated to bring us the moisture on Sunday (approx.) is that low pressure system spinning off the SW coast of California, yes?

Did I understand correctly that it's not moving east as quick as previously thought?

If it is, indeed, moving slower, would that have potential ramifications as far as winter weather is concerned in other parts of Texas, if it happened to arrive after the Arctic fropa?

[Texas Snowman]

JB thinks that if the metroplex misses heavy snow sector this weekend, the next shot is midweek which makes sense.

So does JB actually think the Metroplex gets into the snow this weekend?

[Ntxw]

So I have a question about the water vapor image (which is really neat, BTW)

As I understand it, the storm system slated to bring us the moisture on Sunday (approx.) is that low pressure system spinning off the SW coast of California, yes?

Did I understand correctly that it's not moving east as quick as previously thought?

If it is, indeed, moving slower, would that have potential ramifications as far as winter weather is concerned in other parts of Texas, if it happened to arrive after the Arctic fropa?

It's going to move as winds aloft are coming in from the SW, and yes correct it is that spinning low off the California coast. The main evidence showing it's slow/models not handling it well, is that they continue to push timing of the system back to later overall as a trend. So obviously they didn't have the right initialization previous runs. Until the 'pushing back' stops, I'm led to believe they don't have it correct yet.

A slower system means it is powerful enough to be it's own entity and not be pushed by the progressive nature of the atmosphere, big dog. Hence it would correlate to it moving slower which gives chance the cold has time to come in before the moisture has passed for mostly northern parts of Texas.

[Ntxw]

JB thinks that if the metroplex misses heavy snow sector this weekend, the next shot is midweek which makes sense.

So does JB actually think the Metroplex gets into the snow this weekend?

He thinks it might miss mostly to our east and northeast.

[Portastorm]

So I have a question about the water vapor image (which is really neat, BTW)

As I understand it, the storm system slated to bring us the moisture on Sunday (approx.) is that low pressure system spinning off the SW coast of California, yes?

Did I understand correctly that it's not moving east as quick as previously thought?

If it is, indeed, moving slower, would that have potential ramifications as far as winter weather is concerned in other parts of Texas, if it happened to arrive after the Arctic fropa?

Answers to your questions:

1) Yes

2) No; what is being mentioned by NWS forecasts is the speed with which it will move is in question to some degree as is its ultimate track. This is not unusual at all for upper level lows which can be challenging for the models and forecasters alike.

3) Yes but mostly for North Texas. We won't see anything but rain here in Austin. However, it could be a very chilly rain on Sunday.

[Portastorm]

A slower system means it is powerful enough to be it's own entity and not be pushed by the progressive nature of the atmosphere, big dog. Hence it would correlate to it moving slower which gives chance the cold has time to come in before the moisture has passed.

Not always. I have seen a slower upper level system also slow the southward progress of cold air, especially the depth of the cold air. Dynamics are not always the same.

[Ntxw]

Not always. I have seen a slower upper level system also slow the southward progress of cold air, especially the depth of the cold air. Dynamics are not always the same.

That is true, however I was answering for this particular case. What's happening here is the cold air is oozing from the northeast, kind of a backdoor front you'd say, the slower the storm the more time there is for this to happen, only in this case. Which is why areas further northeast/east of the metroplex has the best shot this go round.

[SouthernMet]

So I have a question about the water vapor image (which is really neat, BTW)

As I understand it, the storm system slated to bring us the moisture on Sunday (approx.) is that low pressure system spinning off the SW coast of California, yes?

Did I understand correctly that it's not moving east as quick as previously thought?

If it is, indeed ,, moving slower, would that have potential ramifications as far as winter weather is concerned in other parts of Texas, if it happened to arrive after the Arctic fropa?

In the most simple of ways to put it, the slower the low progresses the higher the chances of wintry precip (in NTX) will be because of the colder (artic air) that will be in place. But... The faster it progresses then the lower the chances of wintry precip because of the more mild air. For example, if the low came through Saturday, obviously temperatures would not permit wintry precipitation and if it arrived Monday conditions are alot more condusive for winter precip.

So if there was a sudden stall in the system, folks in North Texas and Metroplexers will have a much better oppurtunity for winter precip.