Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Mr. Weather]

so its not looking good for any winter precipitation for the SE Houston area huh

[Portastorm]

12z GFS running now ... looks like it gives DFW a little snow (maybe an inch or two) this weekend but it also dumps 4-5 inches of NE Texas (Tyler, Texarkana ... you're the winners in this run!).

[gboudx]

I consider 1-2" of sneaux to be a winner as well Porta. At least we kick the football.

[Brandon8181]

12z GFS running now ... looks like it gives DFW a little snow (maybe an inch or two) this weekend but it also dumps 4-5 inches of NE Texas (Tyler, Texarkana ... you're the winners in this run!).

Looks like things are starting to come together

[Portastorm]

I consider 1-2" of sneaux to be a winner as well Porta. At least we kick the football.

Good point, gboudx. Anyone who gets snow in Texas this weekend should be considered a "winner."

I really think this is going to be one interesting weekend for weather in our state, between the severe weather and winter weather.

[WacoWx]

Brandon and Ntxw have done REALLY well on this weekend storm from the beginning! nice job, yall.

[Rgv20]

Brownsville late morning discussion

.LONG TERM /6 PM SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
(BELOW) COVERS THE GENERAL THINKING QUITE NICELY. AS
MENTIONED...THE MOST PRESSING CONCERN UP FRONT IS THE EXPECTATION
OF THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS IN THE FORM OF A VIGOROUS SQUALL
LINE...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SHORT WAVE ON THE 06Z
GFS...OFTEN A TOUGH MODEL CYCLE TO GAGE...IS DOWNRIGHT SCARY WITH
A QUICK NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SLIDES THROUGH THE SOUTH TEXAS BRUSH
COUNTRY JUST NORTH OF OUR COVERAGE AREA IN BROOKS/JIM HOGG/KENEDY
COUNTY.

A QUICK INSPECTION OF GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE LIMITING
FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER BEING THE STRENGTHENED INVERSION THE
FARTHER SOUTH ONE TRAVELS...INCLUDING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
SOUNDINGS ARE MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY WHICH MAKES
SENSE GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGEST LIFT. THE OTHER MITIGATING
FACTOR IS TIME OF DAY...IN THE HEART OF THE NIGHT...BUT THAT IS
NOT ALWAYS AN ISSUE WHEN RAPID RECOVERY OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN PLAY. THERE ARE SURFACE LOWS...SUCH AS THE
LEE SIDE TROUGHS THAT ARE DRY AND HOT...AND THERE ARE SYNOPTIC
SURFACE LOWS...FORMING AND LIFTING WITH WARM FRONTAL ZONES WHERE
TRADITIONAL "LID LIFTING" IS CRITICAL FOR EXPLOSIVE SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT.

WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK WITH THE 12Z RUNS TO DETERMINE ANY NEED
FOR AFTERNOON SPS AND CUSTOMER NOTIFICATION HEADING INTO A WEEKEND.

THE OTHER ISSUE IN THE LONGER TERM IS A GRADUAL COOL DOWN EARLY
WEEK FOLLOWED BY WHAT APPEARS TO BE OUR FIRST BONA FIDE
OVERRUNNING CHILL EVENT OF THE THUS FAR DRY AND MILD WINTER OF
2010/2011. LONG TIME STAFF HAVE NOTED THAT A WINTER DOES NOT GO BY
WITHOUT AT LEAST ONE PERIOD OF RAW DAMP CHILL...AND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK MIGHT BE THAT FIRST SUCH PERIOD OF THIS WINTER. MORE LATER...

[russham3]

Looks like Lubbock is going to just be cold and dry again.

From this mornings discussions...

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
COMPLICATED OF THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE EXITING CENTRAL
AND SRN TX WHILE A DEEP UPPER LOW DIGS SEWD THROUGH THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN THE WAKE OF
THE SRN WAVE SHALLOW SFC RIDGING ACROSS OKLA AND NORTH TX IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE WWD INTO AT LEAST THE ROLLING PLAINS. THIS WILL
MAKE THE TEMP FCST TRICKY WITH A PRONOUNCED W-E TEMP GRADIENT
LIKELY ACROSS THE FA. ADDITIONALLY...WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LIFT
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND A NEARLY SATURATED LOW-LVL PROFILE MAY
LEAD TO SOME LIGHT PRECIP...WITH POSSIBILITIES IN PRECIP TYPE RANGING
FROM -RA TO FRDZ TO -SN...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SE PANHANDLE AND
NRN ROLLING PLAINS. FCST X-SECTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LVL
SATURATION WILL OOZE WWD SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH FOG/LOW OVERCAST
ADVANCING UP ONTO AT LEAST ERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK. THE NEXT
CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT BRINGING OUR MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS. MOST OF THE MED-RANGE GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
INDICATING THAT IT WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND PERHAPS
NOT UNTIL AFTERNOON. THIS OF COURSE WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FCST ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING CLOUDS AND FOG ARE ALSO IN THE MIX. HAVE RAISED TEMPS
SOMEWHAT RELUCTANTLY ACROSS THE FA BUT WE ARE STILL UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE BY 5-10 DEGREES MOST AREAS. WHENEVER THE FRONT DOES MOVE
THROUGH...ENHANCED LIFT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY TO THE NRN ZONES WHERE LIFT WILL BE COUPLED
WITH THE UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY DRY
MID-LVLS WHICH STILL SUPPORT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

THE COLD SFC RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE SRN PLAINS FOR TUE
AND WED. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...HIGHS IN THE 20S
AND 30S AND LOWS NEAR ZERO NORTHWEST TO TEENS ELSEWHERE ARE
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. IF THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT REMAIN ELEVATED
TUE NIGHT WIND CHILLS MAY DROP TO ZERO OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CAPROCK. AN UPPER-LVL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS
WTX ON WED...AND MAY PROVIDE A BRIEF SHOT AT SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT
HAVE KEPT POPS SILENT FOR NOW. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...A BATTLE WILL
COMMENCE BETWEEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS.
EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT GUIDANCE IS OFTEN TOO QUICK TO DISLODGE THE
COLD AIR...ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COOLER
THU WHICH LOOKS GOOD WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
FRIDAY.

[ndale]

Am I reading the 12z gfs right in showing no return of cold air anytime soon after next week? That seems to contradict what the hpc is saying about cold air moving south out of Canada next Fri and Sat. I assume the hpc prediction is from a combination of models, so what should we expect here after next week, warm or cold?

[Brandon8181]

Brandon and Ntxw have done REALLY well on this weekend storm from the beginning! nice job, yall.

Thank you so much! I have a lot of weather experience and I use that more so than the models because honestly; I'm not really good with all the models.

Though, I wouldn't have been able to arrive at the thoughts I did without everyone elses help!

Thank you!

[Tireman4]

I consider 1-2" of sneaux to be a winner as well Porta. At least we kick the football.

Good point, gboudx. Anyone who gets snow in Texas this weekend should be considered a "winner."

I really think this is going to be one interesting weekend for weather in our state, between the severe weather and winter weather.

Remember that one year....I cannot remember when....when there were Severe Thunderstorm Watch Boxes and Winter Weather Advisory Boxes out at the same time in the same area (DFW, I think). Was it 2007 or 2008?

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

I consider 1-2" of sneaux to be a winner as well Porta. At least we kick the football.

Good point, gboudx. Anyone who gets snow in Texas this weekend should be considered a "winner."

I really think this is going to be one interesting weekend for weather in our state, between the severe weather and winter weather.

Remember that one year....I cannot remember when....when there were Severe Thunderstorm Watch Boxes and Winter Weather Advisory Boxes out at the same time in the same area (DFW, I think). Was it 2007 or 2008?

I remember that; not sure which year though.

[gboudx]

I consider 1-2" of sneaux to be a winner as well Porta. At least we kick the football.

Good point, gboudx. Anyone who gets snow in Texas this weekend should be considered a "winner."

I really think this is going to be one interesting weekend for weather in our state, between the severe weather and winter weather.

Remember that one year....I cannot remember when....when there were Severe Thunderstorm Watch Boxes and Winter Weather Advisory Boxes out at the same time in the same area (DFW, I think). Was it 2007 or 2008?

I believe it was 2007. We had a Tornado Watch and WWA at the same time.

[Tireman4]

I really think this is going to be one interesting weekend for weather in our state, between the severe weather and winter weather.[/quote]

Remember that one year....I cannot remember when....when there were Severe Thunderstorm Watch Boxes and Winter Weather Advisory Boxes out at the same time in the same area (DFW, I think). Was it 2007 or 2008?[/quote]

I believe it was 2007. We had a Tornado Watch and WWA at the same time.[/quote]

That night ( I think it was night when the front was barreling down) was just wild. I mean wild.

[Portastorm]

Am I reading the 12z gfs right in showing no return of cold air anytime soon after next week? That seems to contradict what the hpc is saying about cold air moving south out of Canada next Fri and Sat. I assume the hpc prediction is from a combination of models, so what should we expect here after next week, warm or cold?

Yes, you are reading that model run correctly.

Considering how much volatility we are seeing in the short term ... my personal feeling is that any forecast beyond 3-5 days at this point is nothing more than an educated guess. I have read comments from pro mets in the last 24 hours which support both a "warm" and "cold" outlook for the nation for mid January.

[orangeblood]

The Navy model looks like it should've been the model of choice all along, maybe that blind squirrel might find a nut once again.

For those in South Texas, go check out today's "Crazy Uncle" 12Z Canadian run. That disturbance coming in from California might be something to watch out for around the middle of next week

[Portastorm]

The Navy model looks like it should've been the model of choice all along, maybe that blind squirrel might find a nut once again.

For those in South Texas, go check out the 12Z Canadian. That disturbance coming in from California might be something to watch out for around the middle of next week

Speaking of the 12z CMC ... those of you in North Texas would love it if this were to pan out. Shows quite a nice snow event for you this weekend.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html#picture

But keep in mind at looking at the latest 5-day, 6-day forecasting skill scores ... the Navy model and the Canadian are the two worst.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The Navy model looks like it should've been the model of choice all along, maybe that blind squirrel might find a nut once again.

For those in South Texas, go check out today's "Crazy Uncle" 12Z Canadian run. That disturbance coming in from California might be something to watch out for around the middle of next week

That disturbance for next week is the one JB talked about!

[newtotex]

If we can get a snow pack in here and north of here, what kind of temps are we looking at for next week? Also, im not taking the Accuweather1 15 day forecast with a grain of salt but its showing fairly chilly temps and freezing rain for my area for the week of the 17th, way to far out to know for sure?

[Ntxw]

I'm in love with the Canadian! And thank you WacoWx! I'm just an enthusiast that's relentlessly looking for chances and sometimes I get lucky that's all . It's the pro mets that teaches so much, this time for instance, wall_cloud kept my hopes alive a few nights ago!