Texas Winter 2010-2011

[orangeblood]

The Navy model looks like it should've been the model of choice all along, maybe that blind squirrel might find a nut once again.

For those in South Texas, go check out the 12Z Canadian. That disturbance coming in from California might be something to watch out for around the middle of next week

Speaking of the 12z CMC ... those of you in North Texas would love it if this were to pan out. Shows quite a nice snow event for you this weekend.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html#picture

But keep in mind at looking at the latest 5-day, 6-day forecasting skill scores ... the Navy model and the Canadian are the two worst.

Hence the nicknames of Blind Squirrel (Navy model) and Crazy Uncle (Canadian Model)

[Ntxw]

I'm not saying this is the same storm or anything or have the same outcome (CMC says it is), pattern is quite different, but the series of events leading to it sounds much like Feb 11th, doesn't it!?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

the models are backing off on all this crazy cold, but the Canadian does look nice. Thats abojut the time we would need that storm since we would have plenty of cold air.

[djmikey]

Just recieved an email advisory from NWS for SETX/WLA! Interesting!

ORANGE, TX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1158 AM CST FRI JAN 7 2011 ..WINTER IS ABOUT TO MAKE A RETURN TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS WEEKEND... CURRENTLY UNDER SUNNY SKIES TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BUT THIS IS THE LAST DAY WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES THIS WARM FOR OVER A WEEK. THE REASON IS A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT THAT IS SLIPPING DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND NOW IS MOVING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA BY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY MIDNIGHT. THE PROBLEM IS A LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER WEST TEXAS TOMORROW AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND OFF THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED OUT OF THE GULF AND ABOVE THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF COLD RAIN AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WHILE AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY WILL SEE A COLD RAIN DURING THE DAY WITH THE THREAT OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN/RAIN MIXING IN SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WINDOW FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL NOT LAST LONG AS WARMER AIR ALOFT FROM THE GULF WILL KICK THIS EVENT BACK INTO A COLD RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY. NO ACCUMULATION OF ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. ONE POINT IS THIS LATEST EVENT WILL NOT DRIVE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 20S...AND THEREFORE NOT REALLY LOOKING AT A HARD FREEZE WITH THIS LATEST COLD OUTBREAK. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 30 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH. FOR MARINE INTEREST... OFFSHORE FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH WATER OUT OF THE BAYS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH WATER INTO THE LAKES AND BAYS SUNDAY. WE ARE LOOKING AT STRONG CURRENTS DURING THIS TIME MOVING THROUGH THE SHIPPING CHANNELS AND BAYOUS...THAT ALONG WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FOR THIS TIME FRAME AND A GALE WARNING LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR THE OFFSHORE. FINALLY SEAS WILL ALSO BE HIGH AND CONFUSED WITH RAPIDLY CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS.

[txagwxman]

EURO < 540 thickness, 850 -1c to -2C at DFW ----> SNOW.

[Ntxw]

EURO < 540 thickness, 850 -1c to -2C at DFW ----> SNOW.

It's showing a widespread and significant event at that into parts of southern Oklahoma as well.

[Brandon8181]

I'm in love with the Canadian! And thank you WacoWx! I'm just an enthusiast that's relentlessly looking for chances and sometimes I get lucky that's all . It's the pro mets that teaches so much, this time for instance, wall_cloud kept my hopes alive a few nights ago!

Me too! Anytime I can hope or forecast snow I'm darn well going to do it

Enjoy the weather and take care.

[newtotex]

Take a look at this. I pulled this from a weather blog back home, its the snow accumulation through monday at 6am, from the RPM. It shows no accumulation here, what do you guys think?


http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/wp- ... _R12km.png

[PTPatrick]

NTXW...can you go over to the deep south thread and post what the latest Euro says for south miss, south al, etc...I am curious because the latest NAM and GFS have snow almost to the coast now.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Twister data still showing 2-4 inches across north texas, gradually building into Northeast Texas. Thats encouraging 48 hours out.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[TwisterFanatic]

EURO < 540 thickness, 850 -1c to -2C at DFW ----> SNOW.

It's showing a widespread and significant event at that into parts of southern Oklahoma as well.

Orly?

[Ntxw]

NTXW...can you go over to the deep south thread and post what the latest Euro says for south miss, south al, etc...I am curious because the latest NAM and GFS have snow almost to the coast now.

The euro isn't as good for the southeast this go round, it sort of kills the storm slowly as it moves out of the TX/LA region. It has the heaviest stuff along the TN border and less than 2 inches or so from Birmingham-ATL. It's further north. (I don't think it's quite cold enough much south of I-20)

[Dallasaggie01]

Looks like Ft. Worth is starting to change their tune based on the latest. Think we'll see a WWA by tonight?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1107 AM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH
TEXAS TAF SITES...BUT FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES WILL HAVE TO INTRODUCE
PRECIPITATION BEYOND THIS CYCLE. OTHERWISE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY AND THEN TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

...OUTLOOK...
THERE ARE EARLY INDICATIONS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER PRECIP
ACROSS THE METROPLEX TAF SITES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL
EVENT WILL BE FINED TUNED AND MAY BE INTRODUCED IN TAF ISSUANCES
TOMORROW.

85/NH

&&

[Ntxw]

Looks like Ft. Worth is starting to change their tune based on the latest. Think we'll see a WWA by tonight?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1107 AM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH
TEXAS TAF SITES...BUT FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES WILL HAVE TO INTRODUCE
PRECIPITATION BEYOND THIS CYCLE. OTHERWISE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY AND THEN TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

...OUTLOOK...
THERE ARE EARLY INDICATIONS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER PRECIP
ACROSS THE METROPLEX TAF SITES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL
EVENT WILL BE FINED TUNED AND MAY BE INTRODUCED IN TAF ISSUANCES
TOMORROW.

85/NH

&&

If the GFS and NAM trend further north like the CMC and ECMWF I don't see why not to post watches up late tonight.

[PTPatrick]

Thanks NTXW, I thought it was wierd. on both GFS and NAM the thickness really dont look all that supportive of snow south of I-20 either, but the accum maps show it nonetheless. Its weird.

[Portastorm]

12z Euro shows possible winter weather for parts of central/south Texas by midweek!

[Ntxw]

12z Euro shows possible winter weather for parts of central/south Texas by midweek!

There's been reports that the Europeans have taken Lucy hostage. Take it while it's hot!

[Portastorm]

12z Euro shows possible winter weather for parts of central/south Texas by midweek!

There's been reports that the Europeans have taken Lucy hostage. Take it while it's hot!

Dangit! I should have known better.

You North Texans better make sure your iphones, blackberries, and digital cameras are working. Portastorm wants to see pix posted on this forum when the snow starts flying!

[Snowman67]

12z Euro shows possible winter weather for parts of central/south Texas by midweek!

Can you post a link for that run of the Euro? Thanks!

[johnbasham]

It is my concern, after reviewing multiple models (and runs) that we could be looking at a sleet / (elevated) freezing rain event Sunday across North Texas.

Different level thickness and "warm" slots above the 850 (further south) could give a setup that will allow for heavier sleet or even freezing rain on elevated items (trees/power lines).

Am I the only one seeing this?

Basham