Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

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SunnyThoughts
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble

#2641 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Jan 07, 2011 8:13 pm

Jag95 wrote:I can't wait to see what the next model run is gonna look like. Chances say it'll be all liquid on the coast where I'm at, but watching these model runs of heavy snow in the deep South is very entertaining.



I feel the same way. Love to see the south get snow, and who knows...maybe we'll get to see a flake or two.. Its great fun to see those fairly close to us with a chance of some big time accumulation.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble

#2642 Postby MGC » Fri Jan 07, 2011 8:38 pm

Doubt we see much here on the coast....so, we are planning a road trip Sunday afternoon. Gotta throw some snowballs! Will decide Sunday morning how far north we will have to travel.......MGC
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble

#2643 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 07, 2011 9:09 pm

My call map <_<

Image
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble

#2644 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jan 07, 2011 9:30 pm

00z Nam out to 57 hours and continues to shift the snow line further south! Wow!

Image
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble

#2645 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jan 07, 2011 9:32 pm

60 hours New Orleans, Biloxi, Mobile, Pensacola all sees accumulating snow :eek:

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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble

#2646 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jan 07, 2011 9:33 pm

63 hours :eek:

Image
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#2647 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Jan 07, 2011 9:35 pm

Im trying hard not to get my hopes up for anything lol It never works though.
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#2648 Postby Jag95 » Fri Jan 07, 2011 9:36 pm

I like that map Brent. I have a feeling that down here we may get a few ice pellets when it starts and then turns to rain as the warm layer moves in. I can settle for that as I don't care for freezing rain at all and snow is unlikely. Anywhere from northern LA through Atlanta may end up being the snow king though. No telling where the heaviest bands will set up.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble

#2649 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Jan 07, 2011 9:36 pm

Ivanhater wrote:63 hours :eek:

Image



Hard to make out, is that showing up to an inch down to P'Cola?
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble

#2650 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jan 07, 2011 9:39 pm

Wow!
00z Nam snowfall

Image
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#2651 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Jan 07, 2011 9:43 pm

Wow, that is even showing some snow just south of Gulf Shores out over the Gulf.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble

#2652 Postby mvtrucking » Fri Jan 07, 2011 9:46 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Wow!
00z Nam snowfall

Image



Wow, that has us getting hammered with snow here in north central Louisiana!
(Dark green is 10-15 inches? :eek: )
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#2653 Postby Jag95 » Fri Jan 07, 2011 9:48 pm

OK, I'm confused. Why is it showing snowfall that far south with 850mb soundings in the mid-40s? What am I missing?
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#2654 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Jan 07, 2011 9:49 pm

Beautiful map there, hope the other models trend south also. Wow
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#2655 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jan 07, 2011 9:50 pm

I am amazed that the models keep trending colder. I will be interested to see tomorrow's 12z runs.

I still am inclined to think that maybe some sleet/light wintry mixed bag may get close to Mobile on Sunday, but it will likely be a short lived event that far south. But my goodness, if the models stay on the trend of being colder, we may be lookinjg at some impressive snowfall accumulations across all of North and Central MS and AL, spreading into GA and the Carolinas later Sunday thru Monday evening.

A very impressive winter storm evolving for the Deep South for sure!
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Re:

#2656 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jan 07, 2011 9:52 pm

Jag95 wrote:OK, I'm confused. Why is it showing snowfall that far south with 850mb soundings in the mid-40s? What am I missing?


I don't get it either, multiple models have been showing this for days now. However, NWS Mobile/Pensacola seem to think it is legit.

AT THIS
TIME...AREAS SOUTH OF A WIGGINS TO CITRONELLE TO BREWTON TO ANDALUSIA
LINE CAN EXPECT MAINLY RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TREND HAS BEEN TO
ADJUST THIS FURTHER SOUTH.
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#2657 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Jan 07, 2011 9:55 pm

Notice in that graphic of Snow from the NAM that it depicts the very northern parts of AL and GA and into TN with lessening amounts of snow. This has to be in response to a further south placement of the Low pressure center. Any further south than what this represents we will see snow/ice down to the coast here in the western panhandle IMO.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble

#2658 Postby Raebie » Fri Jan 07, 2011 9:56 pm

Our mets here seem to be confused. They can't decide on a mix or snow. I find it hard to believe it will be a mix this far north if they're forecasting snow in the deep south. And accumulation? Depending on what news site you frequent, we're looking at anywhere from 1 to 12 inches. Gah.
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Re:

#2659 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:07 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Notice in that graphic of Snow from the NAM that it depicts the very northern parts of AL and GA and into TN with lessening amounts of snow. This has to be in response to a further south placement of the Low pressure center. Any further south than what this represents we will see snow/ice down to the coast here in the western panhandle IMO.




This is why I am so curious to see the next set of runs tomorrow. I am also beginning to wonder just how much farther south this Low may be forming. I mentioned earlier today how critical a factor the track would be with all of this. Any deviation of 50 -100 miles either way is a HUGE factor. So far, the colder trend by the models for now does give a clue that the surface Low may track farther south than what was initially thought.

Hopefully, we will know more from tomorrow's runs.
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Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble

#2660 Postby MississippiWx » Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:15 pm

Just a thought...

Now that the system has moved onshore and we are able to get accurate upper level data into the models, maybe they are resolving the solution and that solution is a colder, farther south one?
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