Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Dean4Storms]

Notice in that graphic of Snow from the NAM that it depicts the very northern parts of AL and GA and into TN with lessening amounts of snow. This has to be in response to a further south placement of the Low pressure center. Any further south than what this represents we will see snow/ice down to the coast here in the western panhandle IMO.

This is why I am so curious to see the next set of runs tomorrow. I am also beginning to wonder just how much farther south this Low may be forming. I mentioned earlier today how critical a factor the track would be with all of this. Any deviation of 50 -100 miles either way is a HUGE factor. So far, the colder trend by the models for now does give a clue that the surface Low may track farther south than what was initially thought.

Hopefully, we will know more from tomorrow's runs.

Totally agree. I think the 0z runs of the GFS and ECM will be interesting, but the real deal comes with the 12z runs tomorrow when I believe the exact placement becomes more certain.

[MGC]

We along the coast are hoping for the low to be stronger and futher south than forecast.....seems every time it does snow down here it is not forecast until the last minute....lets hope that trend continues....MGC

[Dean4Storms]

Just a thought...

Now that the system has moved onshore and we are able to get accurate upper level data into the models, maybe they are resolving the solution and that solution is a colder, farther south one?

That will have an affect on the models most likely as will the depth of this UL trough over the east.

[Brent]

Wow. I just fainted.



10-11 inches of snow and a glaze of ice on top! Atlanta's all-time snow record would fall if this verified.

[Dean4Storms]

I noted today that the contrails up there at 30,000ft were getting blown due south.

[bella_may]

Do you think a winter weather watch could be issued in the morning for the gulf coast? Pending the 00z runs

[Dean4Storms]

Do you think a winter weather watch could be issued in the morning for the gulf coast? Pending the 00z runs

Maybe a Winter Weather Advisory as the Accums. if any would be light and prolly just pose a risk on bridges and overpasses.

[Snowluvr]

The NWS in Mobile has a forecast low on Saturday night of 29 with a north wind and a high of 41 on Sunday with a northeast wind here in Lucedale, Ms. Not sure how it's gonna make it to 41 on Sun with freezing precip and a northerly or northeasterly wind. I've noticed the wind is never forecast to shift out of the South during the entire event, which is a good thing for those of us hoping to see snow.

[MississippiWx]

Good news from the 0z GFS. Looks like it continues the trend of colder and farther south. Ivan, you have any snow maps from this run?

[timNms]

If the NAM snowfall total verifies, we'll still be digging out come Spring break about 20 miles north of Hattiesburg, MS. WOW

[Metalicwx220]

Talk about a January thaw....hmm...Who would have predicted snow in the deep south? Will savannah and charleston get snow?

[DEEDEE911]

well its a wait and see the mets here keep changing things its like they can not make up their minds is it looking any better for southwest mississippi around franklin county we are under a winter weather watch

[Jag95]

I don't see much of a change in the 0z GFS snowfall estimate. Bulleyes on central MS (Jackson NEward) and Atlanta to SC border. Rain/snow line from McComb to Meridian to Montgomery.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

In regards to the latest snowfall maps Ivanhater posted, it just aggrevates me more and more. Shows the snow line west of me then arcs up north around me, then drops back down south and follows the coastline eastwards. No snow in my parish. Go figure. Don't think it will materialize anyway but one can only hope. We didn't get it last go around while further east did and Ivanhater had some nice pictures of the county north of p'cola getting a nice snow shower. Like others said, might have to make a trip further north up into MS somewhere between McComb and Hattiesburg if this pans out.

[Jag95]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
915 PM CST FRI JAN 7 2011


CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY. COLD AIR EXPECTED
TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA
WILL MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST.

THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE CRITICAL AS TO WHAT TYPE AND HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR THE LOW TO
TRACK ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST. THIS SCENARIO WOULD HAVE A
MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET NORTH OF A CITRONELLE WIGGINS LINE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET TO THE SOUTH. ON SUNDAY
A MIX OF SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE NORTH OF A
HIGHLAND HOME...BREWTON...SEMMES LINE WITH RAIN TO THE SOUTH. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET NORTH OF
AN OPP...CITRONELLE...PERKINSTON LINE WITH RAIN TO THE SOUTH. IF
THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER THE GULF...THERE WOULD BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY.

TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AND SLEET EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY NORTH OF A GREENVILLE TO
WAYNESBORO LINE. AN INCH OR LESS NORTH OF A WIGGINS TO OPP LINE. IN
AREAS WHERE FREEZING RAIN FALLS...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS MAY OCCUR
BUT THAT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES EXTREMELY
HAZARDOUS.

[tugreenie]

Road Trip from BSL if no flakes!

[Jag95]

Road Trip from BSL if no flakes!

N.O. NWS updated their forecast to include the mention of snow on the MS coast. At least I think they updated it because I don't remember seeing it.

BSL forecast:
Sunday Night: Rain likely before 2am, then a chance of snow and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 38. Breezy, with a east wind 20 to 25 mph becoming north 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

[Ivanhater]

WRF model...only goes out to 48 hours

[MississippiWx]

Got my fingers crossed that the EURO is going to go back to a snowier/colder solution on this 0z run. NAM and GFS certainly are on board as of now.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

You are right jag95. Just took a look and they mention it for us as well. Only light stuff with no accumulation. Live just a little south of Baton rouge.