Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Brandon8181]

Tonight's model suite consensus points to northeast Texas for heavy snow. NCT will be at the western edge so a little jog this way would certainly help.

I'm pretty impressed with the EURO's 0z run. It brings the 0C line way far south, especially in TX. Hopefully you guys will have moisture to go along with it! The low is a good deal stronger as well.

The Euro is actually warmer than it's previous runs. 540 thickness doesn't even go south beyond I-20 anywhere in the south for the duration of the storm which isn't a good thing aloft.

Nam is warmer to then previous runs.

[wall_cloud]

Thought I'd share my upper air analysis from this evening...00Z 1/8/11

850 mb


700 mb


500 mb


250 mb

[Ntxw]

Could you explain it to us and your thoughts for those of us less fortunate to have extensive knowledge on such good work?

[Ntxw]

Take this with a grain of salt, I'm posting it because it's the only time I've seen in awhile the GFS has snow for us. And frankly I like looking at it, purty.

[Ntxw]

HPC updated maps. Our eastern counties has hope!

[Turtle]

My forecast for Marshall, TX has changed quite a lot.

Saturday Night: Chance of precipitation went from 60% to 70%.
Sunday: High dropped from 39 to 34. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Sunday Night: Precipitation jumped from 40% to 60%.

[johnbasham]

I have a very busy day today with family, but thought I'd start your day with our client forecast for Texas Sunday @ Noon...



My staff will be running forecasts most of the rest of the day. I won't be back until this evening.
I'll try and share more then.

John Basham
Senior Meteorologist
Storm Spotter Live, Inc.
Fort Worth, Texas

[johnbasham]

Okay, one more for Sunday from our group and I REALLY need to go.



I'll catch up with everyone later tonight.

John Basham
Senior Meteorologist
Storm Spotter Live, Inc.
Fort Worth, Texas

[srainhoutx]

Very interesting for those of us in SE TX...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
540 AM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

TXZ163-164-176-177-179-082300-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...LIVINGSTON...CORRIGAN...ONALASKA
540 AM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE TO RESULT IN RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH
SNOW AND SLEET BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER HOUSTON...
MADISON...TRINITY...AND NORTHERN POLK COUNTIES. IF THE CHANGEOVER
TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION OCCURS IN THE MORNING...THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THIS
AREA ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...ICING OF BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING EITHER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY EVENING. ON SUNDAY EVENING...SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE OR SNOW FLURRIES WILL
IMPACT THE AREA. MINOR ICING OF BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
540 AM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

TXZ178-195>200-210>213-226-227-082300-
SAN JACINTO-BURLESON-BRAZOS-WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-
COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-HARRIS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...CALDWELL...
LAKE SOMERVILLE...COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...
THE WOODLANDS...CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...
COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...
PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...
HUMBLE...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...
MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG
540 AM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE TO RESULT IN RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS...FEEDER
ROADS...SECONDARY ROADS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...STORMS COULD PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OR SNOW FLURRIES AFFECTING AREAS NORTH OF A COLLEGE STATION
TO NEW WAVERLY TO SHEPHERD LINE. MINOR ICING OF BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

[DentonGal]

Out of the Fort Worth NWS this moring...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
532 AM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH NORTH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHEAST AND HIGH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY INCREASING.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY TONIGHT AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN AZ MOVES EAST. MOISTURE WILL
SURGE NORTHWARD WITH MVFR CIGS AND AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
DEVELOPING. WILL SHOW CIGS LOWERING AND -RA AT WACO AT 04Z AND IN THE
METROPLEX BY 07Z. CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE FURTHER TOWARD EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND INCREASING RAIN INTENSITY
BY 10-12Z. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HEAVIEST INTENSITY AT
THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE EAST OF THE METROPLEX BUT WILL INTRO A
-RASN MIX BY 17Z AT DFW. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING/INTENSITY
WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE NEXT ISSUANCE. SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST SAT JAN 8 2011/
...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HEAVY SNOW SUNDAY ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING AND OVERSPREAD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES WE WILL SEE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COOL. THE AIR
MASS WILL SATURATE FROM THE RAIN...BUT DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST
WILL ALSO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY TO COOL EVEN FURTHER. THUS THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
THE METROPLEX...WHERE 3 TO OVER 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. A WINTER
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA FROM BONHAM TO ROCKWALL
AND KAUFMAN TO CANTON NORTHEASTWARD. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH...AND TEMPERATURES BEING
CRITICAL...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE KEY
TO THE LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF SNOW AS HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST IF THE FORECAST TRACK IS OFF.

THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL END DURING THE EVENING SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH THAT THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH. HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW FLURRIES FROM BOWIE TO EMORY NORTHWARD FOR
MONDAY...AND EVEN INTO MONDAY NIGHT FROM BONHAM TO SULPHUR SPRINGS
NORTHWARD. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
30S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK AS ARCTIC AIR
MASS FINALLY STARTS TO SCOUR OUT. HAVE STILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...GIVEN THE SHALLOW
ARCTIC AIR MASS.

[northtxboy]

Okay, one more for Sunday from our group and I REALLY need to go.



I'll catch up with everyone later tonight.

John Basham
Senior Meteorologist
Storm Spotter Live, Inc.
Fort Worth, Texas

Thanks John!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Kelarie]

Texarkana is the winner in tonight's American model runs! Kelarie better have her cameras ready .

I am. I have being telling people about this storm all week, and the response has been "You are crazy!". Hmmm looks like I am not so crazy after all huh?

[northtxboy]

Texarkana is the winner in tonight's American model runs! Kelarie better have her cameras ready .

I am. I have being telling people about this storm all week, and the response has been "You are crazy!". Hmmm looks like I am not so crazy after all huh?

same here I told my family 5 days ago anf they rolled there eyes at me,,,I should wake them all up right now and show them.

[gboudx]

Woke to see that here in Rockwall, we're under a WSW. I'm tempering any excitement over accumulation totals by telling the kids to just wait and see. I've seen too many 2-4" forecasted snow events turn into freezing rain, or a cold rain. Need to put the weather rock outside later on.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Woke to see that here in Rockwall, we're under a WSW. I'm tempering any excitement over accumulation totals by telling the kids to just wait and see. I've seen too many 2-4" forecasted snow events turn into freezing rain, or a cold rain. Need to put the weather rock outside later on.

And an early Congrats gboudx on being the only county in the metroplex included in that, lol:) This is such a fluid situation right now, how many times have we seen a situation like this in North Texas. This could end up being a complete wash out or a blizzard(Texas blizzard that is, which means big fluffy flakes ).

It was two years ago I believe when they had upgraded all the way to winter storm warnings and it ended up being an all rain event. GFS still has 1-3 inches to Fort Worth and Denton, would rather be in Texarkana's spot right now, but who knows could be a whole different situation in the morning.

Of course two years ago I was only watching the tv mets and nws and didn't have the great benefit of this board, so I don't know what might have been said on here about that situation. This is a wonderful source, being a lifelong weather junkie this forum is just awesome.

[gboudx]

And an early Congrats gboudx on being the only county in the metroplex included in that, lol:) This is such a fluid situation right now, how many times have we seen a situation like this in North Texas. This could end up being a complete wash out or a blizzard(Texas blizzard that is, which means big fluffy flakes ).

It was two years ago I believe when they had upgraded all the way to winter storm warnings and it ended up being an all rain event. GFS still has 1-3 inches to Fort Worth and Denton, would rather be in Texarkana's spot right now, but who knows could be a whole different situation in the morning.

Of course two years ago I was only watching the tv mets and nws and didn't have the great benefit of this board, so I don't know what might have been said on here about that situation. This is a wonderful source, being a lifelong weather junkie this forum is just awesome.

Yeah I'm tempering any excitement because we are on the western-most edge of that WSW, so that could mean we don't get as much or anything. But after last year's snowmargeddon's I and II, it's hard to be picky this year. If we get enough for the kids to make a small snowman and go do some sledding, that would be good. Let's see how this plays out.

[Brandon8181]

Texarkana is the winner in tonight's American model runs! Kelarie better have her cameras ready .

I am. I have being telling people about this storm all week, and the response has been "You are crazy!". Hmmm looks like I am not so crazy after all huh?

same here I told my family 5 days ago anf they rolled there eyes at me,,,I should wake them all up right now and show them.

Same here, everyone at my office, etc. I told my mother in law about this days ago.. "well none of the local guys are saying that" etc etc....

[Ntxw]

Well based on the models the past few days, they've been moving the accumulations back and forth especially for the DFW area. The constant here is northeast Texas which looks to get a good dosing. For the rest of us, we're going to have to watch the precip shield.

It seems here that when the changeover to snow happens will be very important. If it happens earlier you could be talking locally heftier amounts. If it doesn't happen at all, none. It's one of those things that will easily burn a forecaster. The precip underneath will be extremely heavy so if it's cold enough, a quick one to two inches fast will be likely.

I am willing to bet a 2-4 inch area wide (Tarrant, Denton, Dallas, Collin county eastward) and 3-5 for the eastern counties. I am going to get burned I know it lol...but hey what the hay! Personally the numbers in my head are higher than this but I'm going to go conservative due to the fine line that is involved with this sytem.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[kb75007]

Well from what i've heard it looks like us north of DFW don't really have much hope!

[Brandon8181]

Well here we go!

I had been saying all along for my area I felt like we would have 2 - 4 inches of snow and isolated higher amounts (4-6 inches?)

No one around here believed me, I'm crazy, etc haha...They have been saying anything from an inch, to a trace to up to 3 inches...

Updated forecast from NWS for Sherman, TX:
Sunday: Rain and snow likely, becoming all snow after noon. Cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 31 by 5pm. East northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 29. East northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 33. East southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph

Of course, if I would had been wrong, I would be in a hole not saying anything about it...lolol

Happy Weather watching and everyone have a wonderful weekend. Be sure and take your cold and winter weather precautions as needed.