Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[MississippiWx]

You are right jag95. Just took a look and they mention it for us as well. Only light stuff with no accumulation. Live just a little south of Baton rouge.

Hmmm...Makes you wonder if they're about to change their forecast a bit and trend more towards these cooler solutions being offered by the models tonight. NOLA was already flirting with giving a WSW for their northern counties. It will be interesting to see if they pull the trigger in the morning.

[MississippiWx]

EURO only out to 24 hours right now, BUT it has a 992mb low pressure over Northern Mexico this run, as opposed to a 1005-1007mb low last run! That is a huge swing in strength. Will be interesting to see what happens from here...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... PUS024.gif

[georgia_tech_swagger]

GFS is exploding in the Upstate of SC.

[mitchelliii]

Wow.... just Wow.....ATL.

[MississippiWx]

00z EURO is much colder and stronger than the 12z run:

Link:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... PUS048.gif

[Lane]

This is from a local weather blog:

One Potential Change... The last few runs of the NAM have indicated very strong lift in the atmosphere. This does a few things - first, it generates very heavy precipitation. Secondly, it cools the atmosphere down quite a bit. This extra cooling could potentially mean more snow than ice for our area. It's too early to really nail this idea down yet, but just know that if these trends continue, we will likely adjust the forecast to include less ice and more snow.

This extreme lift in the atmosphere can also lead to thunder and lightning, even during wintry precip. Thundersnow or thundersleet is possible with this setup.

Another "What IF"... If we see a line of thunderstorms down over the northern Gulf of Mexico, then this could lead to less moisture being transported into our area. This is called a "dry slot," and it's been the downfall of many winter storm forecasts. If this were to occur here, precipitation amounts would be much lighter than predicted, and there would likely not be any major problems. It's unlikely, but it has happened before in instances like these.

Time to get some sleep - stay tuned to the blog over the weekend, though....we will keep you up to date!

[BigB0882]

A little further south, please!

[Brent]

The NAM is AGAIN dumping record snows in MS/AL.

[tugreenie]

hoping to see a shift southward again. anyone read the models yet this am? if so please share.

[Metalicwx220]

Pssst...I doubt its gonna be snow, sleet, and freezing rain here in savannah. Its in the forecast, but we don't have a WSW(west south west Lol) and Twc keep raising our temps.

[northjaxpro]

Good morning everyone. Awaiting the 12z model runs, like everyone else. Hopefully we will get a lot of answers to clear up some uncertainties in which at least I had when I went to bed last night.

Of course, the biggest thing we will be watching when the new runs come out is the track of the developing Low pressure area. The trends by the models last night definitely indicated a more southerly track. If this trend contiunues through today by the models, then look for more significant changes. A more southerly track will mean a more colder solution for the Deep South. Therefore, we may be seeing epic snowfall accumulations in many areas. Plus, if the more southerly track trend continues, the threat of wintry precip farther to the south would also increase as well.

So much attention to details with regards to this rare and potent winter storm coming through the heart of Dixie the next 48-72 hours. Quite an amazing event shaping up folks.

[Raebie]

If the southern track verifies, what does your Magic 8 Ball see for the Charlotte area in terms of precipitation type? Our local mets are saying it might start as snow and change to a mix overnight Monday. Possible power outages. Please god no. I went through an ice storm about 7 years back and was without power for 5 days. I about lost my mind.

[northjaxpro]

If the southern track verifies, what does your Magic 8 Ball see for the Charlotte area in terms of precipitation type? Our local mets are saying it might start as snow and change to a mix overnight Monday. Possible power outages. Please god no. I went through an ice storm about 7 years back and was without power for 5 days. I about lost my mind.

Raebie, if the colder southern trend comes to fruition, then I would be inclined to believe that up in the Charlotte metro area this would be more of a heavy snow event, at least for most of the day on Monday. I just got off the phone with family up there and I was told the local mets at the current time are forecasting accumulations in the 4-6 inch range.

The model runs a bit later today will provide better insight hopefully.

[Raebie]

Thanks so much. Will stay tuned.

[bella_may]

I'm taking a road trip to montgomery! Hope it snows a lot there!!

[tugreenie]

Unfortunately I am like a kid. I can't wait. hoping it snows in southern MS.

[DEEDEE911]

our mets here are still saying a wintery mix guess we will not see just snow i just wish we could get snow so that my kids can go out and enjoy it instead of nasty ice that causes alot of problems where is everybody today

[Brent]

[georgia_tech_swagger]

Greenville-Spartanburg finally pulls the trigger.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1145 AM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

...SNOW SHOWERS AND ICY ROADS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...
...MAJOR WINTER STORM EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...

.NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TENNESSEE
BORDER. TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING WILL FURTHER CREATE DANGEROUS
ROAD CONDITIONS IN MANY NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS TODAY.
MEANWHILE...A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN
GULF AND MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COASTLINE BY TUESDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ509-510-SCZ001>007-010>013-019-
082200-
/O.CON.KGSP.WS.A.0001.110110T0000Z-110111T1100Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-
UNION SC-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...COLUMBUS...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...
ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...GREENWOOD
1145 AM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH
CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOWFALL...MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
AT TIMES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT...
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY OCCURRING DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY. A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 85 THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
WELL.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND VERY
SLIPPERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW
EARLY IN THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS LATER
IN THE DAY COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES MONDAY NIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S THROUGHOUT THE STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

[srainhoutx]

Impact Weather has just issued a video regarding the upcoming Winter Storm...

http://www.youtube.com/user/impactweather