Texas Winter 2010-2011

[iorange55]

So I feel out of the loop...but snow is still on so yay!

[Ntxw]

So I feel out of the loop...but snow is still on so yay!

Yeah I think we're all going to see snow. The GFS has been trending to a nicer storm but the pesky NAM hasn't been helping with it's warm bias. It showed very nice accumulations for Dallas and Collin counties with the 6z. I'm waiting to see if that trend had continued here with the 12z. FW NWS I think went along with the HPC for watches since it matches well with the probability maps.

[kb75007]

Hopefully something changes because I want to see some snow! And more than an inch!! The lady on NBC said a dusting to an inch around Dallas but 2 to 5 inches just to the east. What are everyones thoughts?

[iorange55]

So I feel out of the loop...but snow is still on so yay!

Yeah I think we're all going to see snow. The GFS has been trending to a nicer storm but the pesky NAM hasn't been helping with it's warm bias. It showed very nice accumulations for Dallas and Collin counties with the 6z. I'm waiting to see if that trend had continued here with the 12z. FW NWS I think went along with the HPC for watches since it matches well with the probability maps.

well the gfs12z didn't help much.

[Ntxw]

well the gfs12z didn't help much.

It's identical to the 6z, but a tad warmer, splitting hairs though lol.

Hour 30-36 is in transition. Lots of heavy precip over us, when the transition occurs in between is important. So far the GFS has >1"

[Stephanie]

Enjoy your winter weather and take lots of pictures. Just BE CAREFUL, especially where John has that possibility of an ice storm in northern LA, southern AR.

[iorange55]

well the gfs12z didn't help much.

It's identical to the 6z, but a tad warmer, splitting hairs though lol.

Hour 30-36 is in transition. Lots of heavy precip over us, when the transition occurs in between is important. So far the GFS has >1"

Ah, right right. I'm not going to be picky though just as long as I see it falling and covering at least a car I'll be happy.

[txagwxman]

Going to be so close tomorrow in Dallas.



Dewpoints upper teens NE TX, 16F Arkansas...me thinks it is a go for tomorrow DFW/DAL. Enjoy.

[Dallasaggie01]

I'm still trying to learn these types of graphs, is the green line the precip line. Im assuming you want below 0 the whole column down, but what are the other two (blue/red)?

[Ntxw]

I'm still trying to learn these types of graphs, is the green line the precip line. Im assuming you want below 0 the whole column down, but what are the other two (blue/red)?

Yeah first you want the the entire column below the 0c line. Green = dewpoint Red = Temperature, and blue is the wet bulb temperature (temps in which heavy precip can cool the temps to). Second you want the lines at the mid to lower level (700mb downwards) to be touching each other because that means the air is saturated and there is likely precip falling from it. Put both together = snow.

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm still trying to learn these types of graphs, is the green line the precip line. Im assuming you want below 0 the whole column down, but what are the other two (blue/red)?

Yeah first you want the the entire column below the 0c line. Green = dewpoint Red = Temperature, and blue is the wet bulb temperature (temps in which heavy precip can cool the temps to). Second you want the lines at the mid to lower level (700mb downwards) to be touching each other because that means the air is saturated and there is likely precip falling from it. Put both together = snow.

and for the record the y-axis on those maps are diagonal to the right. I used to find that confusing and just assumed it was vertical until someone pointed it out to me.

[wxman57]

I'm still trying to learn these types of graphs, is the green line the precip line. Im assuming you want below 0 the whole column down, but what are the other two (blue/red)?

Just focus on the red and green lines. The red line is the temperature curve. The green line is the dew point temperature curve. Where the two are within 5C of each other you can identify a cloud layer. Where they're real close together, you identify precipitation. In the graphic above, the red line (temperature) is left of the 0C diagonal line and the green line is right next to it, indicating precip with an air column below freezing (snow). Don't worry about that tiny are of above-freezing air right at the surface. Surface temps will drop some when the snow starts falling.

[kb75007]

Well this kind of sucks for us just north of DFW. It sucks to see the snow totals 4 to 6 inches in northeast Texas but us only 1 inch. Hopefully something will change!?

[Ntxw]

Well this kind of sucks for us just north of DFW. It sucks to see the snow totals 4 to 6 inches in northeast Texas but us only 1 inch. Hopefully something will change!?

Don't be so bummed out yet, there's always room for more. We're a bit more fortunate than our friends to our south (Portastorm) who got lucy'd via 18z NAM yesterday. He'd be happy to even get a dusting from any system at anytime of year, so it could be much worse .

[Portastorm]

I'm seeing rain for Dallas and snow in Austin based on the Portastorm model.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Well this kind of sucks for us just north of DFW. It sucks to see the snow totals 4 to 6 inches in northeast Texas but us only 1 inch. Hopefully something will change!?

It seems to me looking at the models Txagwx posted that we'll be getting more than an inch here in dfw. Certainly not a forecast as I'm not near qualified enough to venture that far, but if it's snowing at noon tomorrow it'll be more than an inch. If wxman57 is sure enough to verify that model as snow then I am

I'm with NTXW, I'd be happy to see the ground covered by an inch or two. Poor Porta has to take the stance of sideline viewer quite a bit to our events here in the metroplex.

[Tireman4]

I'm seeing rain for Dallas and snow in Austin based on the Portastorm model.

According the Portastorm model, I am seeing 12 inches for Austin....5 for Houston and cold rain for Dallas....

[iorange55]

I'm seeing rain for Dallas and snow in Austin based on the Portastorm model.

I was looking at that model earlier. I found it weird when the shield of precip was in the shape of a football.

[Portastorm]

I'm seeing rain for Dallas and snow in Austin based on the Portastorm model.

According the Portastorm model, I am seeing 12 inches for Austin....5 for Houston and cold rain for Dallas....

That's right, Tireman! You have done a fine job of reading the 12z Portastorm run.

[Ntxw]

I'm seeing rain for Dallas and snow in Austin based on the Portastorm model.

I was looking at that model earlier. I found it weird when the shield of precip was in the shape of a football.

LOok! The GFS ingested that data this morning! It does look like a football.

hr 21