Texas Winter 2010-2011

[srainhoutx]

Nice catch by EWX on the slowing trend of the Upper Low and the possible impacts regarding P types if that trend contniues...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1142 AM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

.UPDATE...
CONTINUED SUBTLE DEEPENING AND SLOWING TREND OF THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING SOUTH TX WARRANTED A FEW CHANGES TO
TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS. COASTAL SURFACE LOW FOR SUNDAY
MORNING APPEARS CONSISTENT WITH THE EARLIER...BUT HIGHER PRESSURES
DRAWING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE NE SUGGEST STRONGER WINDS OVER
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND LOWER RH VALUES AND MIN TEMPS TONIGHT OVER
NE COUNTIES. REST OF MORNING PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD...BUT WILL MONITOR
THE DRYING TRENDS AND ITS IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PRECIPIATION OVER OUR NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES IN LATER PERIODS.

[Tireman4]

ECMWF hair warmer vs the 00z for tomorrow's event...going to be so close. But I think it will happen for DFW / TYR / GGG.

Txagwxman,

Did you see this? Is the HGX NWS hedging their bets still? Sounds like it.

AS FOR WINTER WEATHER...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME
BUT THE NAM 12 DOES SUPPORT SOME TYPE OF WINTRY PRECIP. SOUNDINGS
ARE SATURATED FROM 800 MB TO THE SFC BUT STRADDLES THE ZERO
ISOTHERM FROM THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER TO 950 MB. NOT SURE
IF THIS IS COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW OR JUST A COLD RAIN. WILL
WAIT FOR OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS BEFORE MAKING OTHER CHANGES. 43

[iorange55]

A foot of snow last year in one storm and possibly 3-5 inches this year? That's a nice couple of years.

[Portastorm]

I cannot stress enough how important it will be for folks in Texas, especially the eastern half, to keep up on the latest forecasts. As y'all are seeing already from this morning's developments, things can change quickly. As our pro mets would attest to, sometimes forecasting upper lows in winter can be very tough. They slow down, they speed up, they move further north or south than progged. Even the slightest changes will have big impacts on real weather.

There's been some great posts this morning ... keep it up and thanks to Mr. Basham and Mr. Txagwxman, and Mr. Wxman57 for their keen insights!

[SouthernMet]

For the metroplex... East of I-35 a widespread 3-5 inches with an isolated 6" total snow accumulation is very possible. Just west of I-35 (Fort Worth) 2-4 inches is possible. Relatively immediately west of I-35 from a Granbury to a Weatherford to Decatur line a 1-3 inches looks possible. IMHO a Winter Storm Watch is warranted for the metroplex and as we see how things evolve, possibly a Waring for eastern areas of the metroplex. But like Ntxw touched on, it heavily depends on where the precip sheild is that's why it is a very difficult forecast for us to make. Meaning, if the transition occurs when or before a nice heavy band of precip rolls through a particular location then a quick additional 1-2 inches is possible associated with that band. Right now that is my reasonable thoughts based on how I see it. And FWIW temperatures actually look to start out around 32-34 at the surface in the DFW metroplex at daybreak.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Forecast disclaimer added by moderator Portastorm

[txagwxman]

For the metroplex... East of I-35 a widespread 3-5 inches with an isolated 6" total snow accumulation is very possible. Just west of I-35 (Fort Worth) 2-4 inches is possible. Relatively immediately west of I-35 from a Granbury to a Weatherford to Decatur line a 1-3 inches looks possible. IMHO a Winter Storm Watch is warranted for the metroplex and as we see how things evolve, possibly a Waring for eastern areas of the metroplex. But like Ntxw touched on, it heavily depends on where the precip sheild is that's why it is a very difficult forecast for us to make. Meaning, if the transition occurs when or before a nice heavy band of precip rolls through a particular location then a quick additional 1-2 inches is possible associated with that band. Right now that is my reasonable thoughts based on how I see it. And FWIW temperatures actually look to start out around 32-34 at the surface in the DFW metroplex at daybreak.

Actually most models have DFW starting out in the upper 30s at daybreak.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

For the metroplex... East of I-35 a widespread 3-5 inches with an isolated 6" total snow accumulation is very possible. Just west of I-35 (Fort Worth) 2-4 inches is possible. Relatively immediately west of I-35 from a Granbury to a Weatherford to Decatur line a 1-3 inches looks possible. IMHO a Winter Storm Watch is warranted for the metroplex and as we see how things evolve, possibly a Waring for eastern areas of the metroplex. But like Ntxw touched on, it heavily depends on where the precip sheild is that's why it is a very difficult forecast for us to make. Meaning, if the transition occurs when or before a nice heavy band of precip rolls through a particular location then a quick additional 1-2 inches is possible associated with that band. Right now that is my reasonable thoughts based on how I see it. And FWIW temperatures actually look to start out around 32-34 at the surface in the DFW metroplex at daybreak.

I'm going to be the bad guy for Porta here real quick, don't forget to post your disclaimer.

[Ntxw]

Time to shift gear away from model watching and enter now-cast mode! Light bands of rain is breaking out in far west Texas, likely not reaching the ground but harbingers of things to come.

[Portastorm]

For the metroplex... East of I-35 a widespread 3-5 inches with an isolated 6" total snow accumulation is very possible. Just west of I-35 (Fort Worth) 2-4 inches is possible. Relatively immediately west of I-35 from a Granbury to a Weatherford to Decatur line a 1-3 inches looks possible. IMHO a Winter Storm Watch is warranted for the metroplex and as we see how things evolve, possibly a Waring for eastern areas of the metroplex. But like Ntxw touched on, it heavily depends on where the precip sheild is that's why it is a very difficult forecast for us to make. Meaning, if the transition occurs when or before a nice heavy band of precip rolls through a particular location then a quick additional 1-2 inches is possible associated with that band. Right now that is my reasonable thoughts based on how I see it. And FWIW temperatures actually look to start out around 32-34 at the surface in the DFW metroplex at daybreak.

I'm going to be the bad guy for Porta here real quick, don't forget to post your disclaimer.

Thank you DFW! Yes, please include the forecast disclaimer if you are going to make forecasts.

[iorange55]

Dan Henry of Fox 4 news here in Dallas tweeted this

Winter Storm Watch now in effect for much of North Texas including DFW for snow on Sunday...2-4" a safe bet, with potential for more.

I'm going to buy new gloves.

[srainhoutx]

HPC as updated...



DAY 1...

SERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

A WIDESPREAD HVY PCPN EVENT WL BREAK OUT THIS PERIOD ACRS SERN
PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF THE
CLOSED LOW PUSHING EWD FROM NRN MEXICO INTO THE S TX
OVERNIGHT...EWD ACRS ERN TX AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURG SUN.
LITTLE IF ANY PCPN IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS CLOSED LOW AT THE
MOMENT AS IT REMAINS CUTOFF FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SOURCE.
HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING MOIST SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE WRN GULF
WL SUPPORT A RAPID INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE TONIGHT ACRS CNTRL TO
S TX...WITH THIS PCPN SHIELD EXPANDING NEWD EARLY SUN AND INTO THE
DAY TIME HOURS OF SUN INTO NERN TX/FAR SERN OK...SRN AR AND EWD
ACRS LA INTO WRN MS. MAX PCPN AMTS EXPECTED FROM SRN TX NEWD
ALONG THE CNTRL TO UPR TX COAST INTO SRN LA WHERE A CONVECTIVE MAX
IS EXPECTED IN THE NOSE OF THE STRONG MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE GULF.
THE HI RES ARW/NMM WERE MORE EMPHATIC ABOUT A COASTAL CONVECTIVE
MAX THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE DAY 1 QPF LEANED TOWARD THIS
SOLN. FARTHER NORTH...A DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION BAND
WL SUPPORT MDT TO HVY PCPN AMTS NEWD INTO NERN TX/FAR SERN OK/SRN
AR. SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE NRN PORTION OF
THIS COMMA HEAD WHERE COLD TEMPS WL SUPPORT HVY SNOW AND
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR FURTHER
WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.

[txagwxman]

UKMET 850 0C isotherm DFW/CRS/LFK.

[Night on the Sun]

I grew up outside of Boston, where, some winters, we would get a storm dumping 4-6 inches of snow about once a week. I've lived in north Texas for 7 years now. I never thought I'd get excited about a possible snowstorm, but I honestly have to say I miss it. I am realizing what a treat last February/March turned out to be. Hoping for a nice little accumulation over the next couple of days, but I have not seen any rings around the moon, which is how the oldtimers predicted snow up north.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

NWS just upped the snow probability up to 80% from I20 northward and east of I 35 with 2 to 4 inches and locally higher. I-35 and west is 70 % with 2 to 4 inches out to 820 and 1 to 3 inches west of there.

[newtotex]

What area of that would Argyle (southern Denton) fall under?

[DFW Stormwatcher]

I think that was under the 2-4 inch category, here is the point forecast from NWS for Argyle.

Point Forecast: Argyle TX
33.14°N 97.19°W (Elev. 653 ft) Mobile Weather Information | En Español
Last Update: 12:04 pm CST Jan 8, 2011
Forecast Valid: 2pm CST Jan 8, 2011-6pm CST Jan 14, 2011



This Afternoon: Mostly sunny, with a high near 52. East wind around 5 mph.

Tonight: A slight chance of rain before midnight, then rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. East southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Sunday: Snow likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 34. East northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

[newtotex]

I think that was under the 2-4 inch category, here is the point forecast from NWS for Argyle.

Point Forecast: Argyle TX
33.14°N 97.19°W (Elev. 653 ft) Mobile Weather Information | En Español
Last Update: 12:04 pm CST Jan 8, 2011
Forecast Valid: 2pm CST Jan 8, 2011-6pm CST Jan 14, 2011



This Afternoon: Mostly sunny, with a high near 52. East wind around 5 mph.

Tonight: A slight chance of rain before midnight, then rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. East southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Sunday: Snow likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 34. East northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Thanks, I probably should start looking at that first ha

[Dustan78]

Tonight: A slight chance of rain before midnight, then rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. East wind between 5 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Sunday: Snow likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 36. East northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

This is for the NWS FW office for 76111, this was just updated as well, when I looked this morning, they were saying up to an inch.

[Ntxw]

The core of the Metroplex is now under the winter storm watch.

RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1159 AM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

TXZ093-102>104-117>119-131>134-090200-
/O.EXB.KFWD.WS.A.0001.110109T0900Z-110110T0600Z/
GRAYSON-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHERMAN...DENISON...DECATUR...
BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...
PLANO...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...
GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...
WAXAHACHIE...ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS
1159 AM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL
CONTINUE EAST TODAY AND AFFECT NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT. AREAS OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
TEXAS OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD. AS THE STORM SYSTEM
CROSSES NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO TRANSITION TO SNOW BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A VERY FLUID SITUATION AND MANY
FACTORS MAY CHANGE THE FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT IF
TEMPERATURES WERE TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...NO SNOW WOULD FALL IN
AND AROUND THE METROPLEX. AT THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES DO APPEAR
TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW MAY
FALL OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

PORTIONS OR ALL OF THIS WATCH COULD BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT IF THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW AND THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAINS SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY ARE
NOW.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
PERSONS WITH PLANNED TRAVEL ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
INTO LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
CLOSELY FOR ANY CHANGES.

DFW will be under very heavy precip, if the changeover happens quickly watch out.

[kb75007]

So now we are under a winter storm watch.. Does anyone think they will upgrade it to a warning? What would have to happen for them to up it to a warning?