Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Ivanhater]

NWS Mobile/Pensacola discussion from this morning

TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE...PRIMARILY A COLD RAIN
EVENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES
THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PCPN MAY POSSIBLY OCCUR A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND THE WSW MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST...BUT WE WILL WAIT AND
EVALUATE FUTURE MODEL DATA BEFORE MAKING THAT CALL

[Ivanhater]

From JB this morning...the low further south is good

"The low has just formed…and a little more to the south from where we expected."

[srainhoutx]

From JB this morning...the low further south is good

"The low has just formed…and a little more to the south from where we expected."

[sherry]

I like the Impact weather video. We are it seems on the 6-8 inch area. I am hoping that will pan out. Even though I would be happy with even 4-6 inches.

[Ivanhater]

WRF model

[SunnyThoughts]

So this WRF model map is suppose to be snow depth? Even along the gulf coast? ahaha ( must not get suckered into believing..must...not ...

[Metalicwx220]

So this WRF model map is suppose to be snow depth? Even along the gulf coast? ahaha ( must not get suckered into believing..must...not ...

LOL!

[NDG]

The WRF is full of crap, critical thickness for snow that close to the gulfcoast is not going to happen according by all models, I am only expecting snow along the I-20 corridor, with more sleet than anything.

[Ivanhater]

The WRF is full of crap, critical thickness for snow that close to the gulfcoast is not going to happen according by all models, I am only expecting snow along the I-20 corridor, with more sleet than anything.

I know what you mean, but the NWS is thinking about extending the winter storm watch down to the coast.


NWS Mobile/Pensacola discussion from this morning

TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE...PRIMARILY A COLD RAIN
EVENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES
THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PCPN MAY POSSIBLY OCCUR A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND THE WSW MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST...BUT WE WILL WAIT AND
EVALUATE FUTURE MODEL DATA BEFORE MAKING THAT CALL

[Metalicwx220]

That WFR could be right. They did talk about the low forming more south. RIGHT?

[Jag95]

OK, I'm putting my chips on Jackson, MS. May make a little road trip if it starts early enough.

[SunnyThoughts]

Would the low forming more south...make the temps colder along the coast though? Im way confused I guess. MId 40's for lows Sunday night here last I looked. Don't see how thats anywhere cold enough to have snow or ice over rain.

[Metalicwx220]

Its possible to snow with 40 degrees.

[NDG]

Even if you see a wintry precip close to the gulfcoast don't expect for it to be that of snow, it would of mainly sleet behind the passage of the low surface pressure before the atmosphere dries up, but heights are not going to be low enough for snow formation that close to the coast.
Anybody thinking about driving to Jackson MS or northward has to plan on getting there before and staying put after the event because there will be an area of freezing rain/sleet before you get to the all snow area that could make traveling on the road very dangerous with surface temps near or below freezing thus for the icy conditions to form on the roads.

[psyclone]

that wrf map literally shows a half foot at the FL/GA/AL triple point...i don't think so. that said if i lived in the panhandle and wanted to see snow i would be taking a road trip north...you probably won't have to travel too far to get into some serious snow. good luck to all the dixie snow fans. i hope you get a good dumping.

[NDG]

Its possible to snow with 40 degrees.

But we are talking about a different set up here, very cold surface temps with an above freezing temps near H85 from I-20 down to the coast, this will be almost like a warm front moving into an area of colder surface temps with the warm air rising above the cold surface temps.

[Metalicwx220]

Im thinking of when its like a big rain area and there are lots of places in the mid to upper 30s and low 40s and then out of nowhere your precip just changes and mixes with snow. ON the radar it shows up like a small blob of white and every one else is raining. I think someone will understand what im saying. Another word is surprise snow.

[NDG]

Im thinking of when its like a big rain area and there are lots of places in the mid to upper 30s and low 40s and then out of nowhere your precip just changes and mixes with snow. ON the radar it shows up like a small blob of white and every one else is raining. I think someone will understand what im saying. Another word is surprise snow.

That happens when we have a very cold atmosphere to where the precipitation forms as snow and falls as snow without having the opportunity to melt before reaching the above freezing surface temps, this is not going to be the case this time with this system in the deep south. We are going to see a lot of places that are going to be well below freezing and have only sleet & freezing rain with very little snow and places with only a few degrees above freezing but have nothing but liquid precipitation mainly.

[Brent]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1243 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-091845-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
1243 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE
LIKELY THROUGH 6 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN ALABAMA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL MOVE OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW
NORTH AND SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CENTRAL AND SOUTH. HOWEVER...ALL
THREE FORMS OF PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LATEST FORECAST MODELS HAVE NOW SHIFTED THE MAIN SNOW THREAT
NORTHWARD...AND HAVE INCREASED THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM
CENTRAL AND SOUTH. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY THE EXTREME NORTH. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1/4 OF AN INCH...OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW COULD CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS LIKELY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

[BigB0882]

Have any of the models run that have initialized with the L in the right place, now that is has finally formed? Curious to see those. Any new NAM or GFS snow cover maps? I like the WRF one, it has Baton Rouge very close to 4 inches, not that I am buying it but sometimes fantasy snow is better than no snow.