Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[NDG]

I can't see to where a well defined "closed" surface low has formed yet by looking at surface observations in northern MX & southern TX.

[BigB0882]

This thread is unusually dead for the day before a big event! Did the models all trend the wrong way and everyone is busy crying or are people out buying snow shovels.

[Brent]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
224 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE MIDSOUTH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST SUNDAY
MORNING TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE SYSTEM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE ARKLATEX
REGION AND SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL THEN
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE MIDSOUTH BY SUNDAY EVENING.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOME LIGHTER INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS THE STORM PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.

IT APPEARS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE
SNOW INITIALLY SOUTH OF TUNICA TO TUPELO MISSISSIPPI LINE...BUT
ANY SLEET SHOULD QUICKLY TURN TO SNOW SUNDAY EVENING.

ARZ035-036-048-MSZ001>006-009-014-TNZ053-088>092-091100-
/O.UPG.KMEG.WS.A.0001.110110T0000Z-110110T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMEG.WS.W.0001.110110T0000Z-110110T1200Z/
CROSS-CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-BENTON MS-TIPPAH-
ALCORN-TISHOMINGO-PRENTISS-UNION-CHESTER-SHELBY-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
MCNAIRY-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WYNNE...WEST MEMPHIS...FORREST CITY...
SOUTHAVEN...OLIVE BRANCH...CORINTH...IUKA...BOONEVILLE...
NEW ALBANY...BARTLETT...GERMANTOWN...COLLIERVILLE...MEMPHIS...
MILLINGTON...SOMERVILLE...BOLIVAR...SAVANNAH
224 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6
AM CST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY RAISE HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES.

* IMPACTS: SNOW COVERED ROADS AND DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MID EVENING SUNDAY. THE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT LEAST INTO THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH...AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH THE DAY AND BEYOND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

[mitchelliii]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
224 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE MIDSOUTH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST SUNDAY
MORNING TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE SYSTEM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE ARKLATEX
REGION AND SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL THEN
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE MIDSOUTH BY SUNDAY EVENING.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOME LIGHTER INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS THE STORM PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.

IT APPEARS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE
SNOW INITIALLY SOUTH OF TUNICA TO TUPELO MISSISSIPPI LINE...BUT
ANY SLEET SHOULD QUICKLY TURN TO SNOW SUNDAY EVENING.

ARZ035-036-048-MSZ001>006-009-014-TNZ053-088>092-091100-
/O.UPG.KMEG.WS.A.0001.110110T0000Z-110110T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMEG.WS.W.0001.110110T0000Z-110110T1200Z/
CROSS-CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-BENTON MS-TIPPAH-
ALCORN-TISHOMINGO-PRENTISS-UNION-CHESTER-SHELBY-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-
MCNAIRY-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WYNNE...WEST MEMPHIS...FORREST CITY...
SOUTHAVEN...OLIVE BRANCH...CORINTH...IUKA...BOONEVILLE...
NEW ALBANY...BARTLETT...GERMANTOWN...COLLIERVILLE...MEMPHIS...
MILLINGTON...SOMERVILLE...BOLIVAR...SAVANNAH
224 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6
AM CST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY RAISE HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES.

* IMPACTS: SNOW COVERED ROADS AND DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MID EVENING SUNDAY. THE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT LEAST INTO THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH...AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH THE DAY AND BEYOND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

Here come the warnings!

[Brent]

[Brent]

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
301 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT OUR AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND COMBINE WITH VERY COLD AND INITIALLY DRY AIR
ACROSS THE REGION TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ034>036-040>044-047>066-
090515-
/O.UPG.KJAN.WS.A.0001.110109T1200Z-110110T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KJAN.WS.W.0001.110109T1500Z-110110T1200Z/
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-WARREN-
HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROSSETT...NORTH CROSSETT...HAMBURG...
WEST CROSSETT...DERMOTT...LAKE VILLAGE...EUDORA...BASTROP...
OAK GROVE...EPPS...LAKE PROVIDENCE...RAYVILLE...DELHI...
TALLULAH...WINNSBORO...JONESVILLE...HARRISONBURG...NEWELLTON...
ST. JOSEPH...WATERPROOF...VIDALIA...FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY...
GREENVILLE...BELZONI...ISOLA...DURANT...TCHULA...LEXINGTON...
PICKENS...GOODMAN...MAYERSVILLE...ROLLING FORK...ANGUILLA...
YAZOO CITY...RIDGELAND...MADISON...CANTON...CARTHAGE...
VICKSBURG...JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...FOREST...
MORTON...NEWTON...UNION...DECATUR...CONEHATTA...MERIDIAN...
PORT GIBSON...CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...WESSON...MAGEE...
MENDENHALL...TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...
QUITMAN...STONEWALL...SHUBUTA...FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...BUDE...
ROXIE...MEADVILLE...BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...
PRENTISS...BASSFIELD...COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL
301 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN
ALONG WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY
TO 6 AM CST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING: PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING MIXED
WITH FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE
MIXTURE SHOULD END FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

* MAIN IMPACT: FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A RAYVILLE LOUISIANA TO
CANTON TO PHILADELPHIA LINE...MOSTLY SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SLEET IS EXPECTED WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY. ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...A SLUSHY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO
FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY EVENING WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE QUARTER
TO ONE HALF INCH NOW EXPECTED. FARTHER SOUTH...TO THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR...A MIX OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN SUNDAY MORNING
CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH THE ONE QUARTER INCH OF
POTENTIAL ICING. THE RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN AND ICE ACCUMULATION
APPEARS GREATEST FROM THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR DOWN TO THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR...A BAND OF ONE INCH ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS STRADDLING ROUGHLY A WISNER LOUISIANA TO
PORT GIBSON TO QUITMAN LINE AND DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES
WILL BE A PRIMARY CONCERN. TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BE VERY LIMITED IF
NOT COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE.

* OTHER IMPACTS: BRISK EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY EVNING AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD COMBINE WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF SLUSH OR ICE TO RESULT IN EVEN MORE TREE AND POWER
LINE DAMAGE. TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY WIND CHILLS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING AFTER MID MORNING MONDAY BUT LOCATIONS WITH
ANY SNOW OR ICE COVER WILL NOT REACH THE FREEZING MARK UNTIL MIDDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ICING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ARE FORECAST...
ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE YOU BECOME
STRANDED.

$$

[Ivanhater]

Well I'm currently stuck on Mobile bay there is a wreck. I'm picking my friend up and bringing them home to dadeville Alabama close to auburn. Should definitely see snow

[Brent]

Well I'm currently stuck on Mobile bay there is a wreck. I'm picking my friend up and bringing them home to dadeville Alabama close to auburn. Should definitely see snow

Might see an ice storm.

[Turtle]

Everything is further north.

[Jag95]

Yeah, that ice storm possibility scares me. Drivers around here are bad enough in just plain snow. May have to rethink my earlier comment about a road trip.

[bella_may]

Yep I'm on a road trip to just north of montgomery! Can't wait to see the snow!!!

[Brent]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
325 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FOUR STATE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. THE WINTER PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS EARLY AS THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY MORNING...
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-090530-
/O.UPG.KSHV.WS.A.0001.110109T1200Z-110110T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KSHV.WS.W.0001.110109T1200Z-110110T0600Z/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-
MORRIS-CASS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...
IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...PITTSBURG...
DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA
325 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
CST SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM
SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* SNOW AND SLEET SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINTER
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.

* FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. IN
SOME AREAS THE SNOW MAY FALL IN COMBINATION WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SLEET.

* SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA...CREATING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

[Tabitha]

Hi! What are the chances that Charleson SC may get some wintery weather this weekend? Our weather ppl are saying RAIN...ugh, I would love to see some winter weather here. I moved to the south a couple yrs ago, and I do miss the snow we had up north. Not a bunch, ha, but, its awesome to see snow in the south evey now and again...for all you that will be getting snow and ice, be safe!!! Thanks.....Tabby

[Brent]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
337 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

LOOKING AT THE OVERALL SCHEME OF THINGS THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN WINDS NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON...THUS A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER TODAY. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL BRING IN COLD AIR TONIGHT...SETTING US UP FOR THE WINTER
WEATHER EVENT BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
EVENING. THE 12Z MODELS ARE ALL COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
FURTHER OFF THE COAST. THAT WOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR SNOWFALL IF NOT
FOR THE PESKY 850MB 50 KT JET MOVING IN BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WARM
NOSE WILL CREATE A POSSIBLE DANGEROUS SITUATION ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT
ICING SCENARIO. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST...THAT 850 MB
JET BUILDS QUICKLY INTO THE SOUTH AND WE WILL SEE A GOOD 4 OR 5
DEGREE C WARM NOSE MOVE NORTH. BY THE TIME THIS WARM NOSE WORKS INTO
THE NORTH THIS NOSE IS ONLY 1 TO 2 DEGREE C NEAR BIRMINGHAM. THE
QUESTION HERE...WILL BE THE COOLING UNDER THE NOSE. IF THE COLUMN
REMAINS AROUND 3 TO 4 KFT THICK THEN THIS WOULD BE MORE SLEET THAN
FREEZING RAIN. 1.5 TO 2 KFT WOULD BE GENERALLY JUST FREEZING RAIN.
THIS STANDS TRUE THROUGH. THE OTHER SCENARIO IS LOOKING AT THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS...THE ICE CRYSTALS ARE MINIMAL AT BEST ACROSS THE SOUTH
BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z...WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES. PROBLEMS WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM ACROSS THE SOUTH.

AT THE SAME TIME WE COULD ALSO SEE QUITE A BIT OF SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTH AS AN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AND SLIDE NORTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE SWEET SPOT THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPECTING TO DEVELOP.
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN...SO FEEL OKAY ABOUT HOLDING THE WATCH
FOR ANOTHER 4 TO 6 HOURS...BEFORE PULLING THE WARNING LATER TONIGHT.
WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING TO COVER ALL POSSIBLE
WEATHER SCENARIOS.

LET ME REITERATE...THE SCENARIO IS REALLY BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE
LIKE AN ICING SITUATION ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND COULD BE CAUSE MAJOR
TRAVEL ISSUES.

WHILE THE INITIAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WE
WILL ALSO BE WATCHING ACTIVITY LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS ADDITIONAL LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW COULD FALL
ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS WOULD BE MINIMAL AS FAR AS AMOUNTS ARE
CONCERNED BUT WOULD BE ON TOP OF ANYTHING ELSE. ANOTHER CONCERN
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE ANY MELTING AND THEN REFREEZING.
TRAVELERS NEED TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE ROADS IF THE NEED TO TRAVEL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A VERY
COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER THAN MOS
FOR BOTH DAYTIME AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES DURING THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH SO MUCH COLD AIR IN
PLACE...THIS COULD GIVE US ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION. ON THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA AND IT COULD POSSIBLE SQUEEZE OUT A FEW FLURRIES. MODELS ARE
NOT GENERATING ANY QPF YET...SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY WEATHER AT THIS
TIME.

ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION COULD MOVE IN EARLY ENOUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE STILL BELOW FREEZING.
THEREFORE...FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE EXTREME
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY WARM UP ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD END UP THE THREAT. GIVEN THAT THIS IS SEVEN
DAYS OUT...THE FORECAST WILL MOST LIKELY CHANGE.

10/ARM

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER MID WEST WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH 00Z UNDER SKC CONDITIONS. AS HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AFTER
00Z...SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO NE AND START TO INCREASE AFTER 15Z
MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER
18Z.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED
TO THE END OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE 2010/2011 WINTER
SEASON. THE CEILOMETER DATA WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS
AND MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

STEFKOVICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 19 33 27 31 29 / 0 20 100 80 20
ANNISTON 18 32 28 32 28 / 0 20 100 80 20
BIRMINGHAM 22 33 28 33 30 / 0 50 100 70 20
TUSCALOOSA 22 34 28 35 31 / 10 60 100 50 20
CALERA 21 33 28 34 30 / 0 50 100 60 20
AUBURN 23 34 28 33 29 / 0 20 100 70 20
MONTGOMERY 24 34 29 38 32 / 10 50 100 60 10
TROY 25 35 31 38 32 / 10 50 100 60 10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...
CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...CHILTON...CLAY...CLEBURNE...
COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...ETOWAH...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...
JEFFERSON...LAMAR...LEE...LOWNDES...MACON...MARENGO...MARION...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...
SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...SUMTER...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA...
TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...
BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...CHILTON...
CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...ETOWAH...FAYETTE...
GREENE...HALE...JEFFERSON...LAMAR...LEE...LOWNDES...MACON...
MARENGO...MARION...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...
RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...SUMTER...TALLADEGA...
TALLAPOOSA...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

$$

16/10/01

[Brent]

Ivanhater, I'm not sure coming up here is a good idea.

My forecast:

Sunday Night...Snow in the evening...then freezing rain or snow or sleet after midnight. Snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Ice accumulation of up to one quarter of an inch. Near steady temperature in the upper 20s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Monday...Light freezing rain and light sleet in the morning... Then light freezing rain or light sleet likely in the afternoon. Ice accumulation of less than one quarter of an inch. Highs in the lower 30s. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

Auburn:

Sunday Night...Snow in the evening...then freezing rain or sleet after midnight. Snow and sleet accumulation up to 1 inch. Ice accumulation of one quarter to one half of an inch. Lows in the upper 20s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Monday...Light freezing rain or light sleet likely. Ice accumulation of less than one quarter of an inch. Highs in the mid 30s. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Troy:

Sunday Night...Freezing rain or snow or sleet in the evening... Then freezing rain or sleet after midnight. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation. Ice accumulation around one half of an inch. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Monday...Light freezing rain or light sleet likely in the morning...then chance of light freezing rain or light sleet in the afternoon. Ice accumulation of less than one quarter of an inch. Highs in the upper 30s. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

On the flip side...

Gadsden/Anniston:

Sunday Night...Snow. Snow accumulation of 4 to 5 inches. Lows in the mid 20s. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Monday...Snow and light sleet in the morning...then light freezing rain or light sleet likely in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

[Ntxw]

This is starting to set up as possibly being a significant ice event. I'm really concerned for the central areas of MS/AL/GA. Thinking those with loose trees limbs, items outside should prepare properly as well as prepare for a possible period of power outages. It's going to get cold afterward should take steps now.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[BigB0882]

Can someone explain how you can see precipitation on these but it still says .00 inches? Is it because it is high up in the atmosphere and not making it to the ground?

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kbtr.txt

[Brent]

*drool*

[Jag95]

Looks like it's starting to come together south of El Paso, with convection increasing over the last 3 hours. Last 3 hourly observations in El Paso also show the wind having picked up. Time to watch the real thing (and models too).

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=8

[jabber]

Raleigh NWS do not seem very concerned... Dam warm nose.... Very strange day today. Clouds would come in then snow for a couple minutes... then sun... repeat several times. Odd for around here.

TIMING OF THE WARM NOSE AS THE H85 WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY EVENING WILL BE CRITICAL TO HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND WHEN THE A CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
OCCURS. MODELS INDICATE DRYING ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WHICH
WOULD LIMIT QPF OVERNIGHT AND TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
BY TUESDAY MORNING...POTENTIALLY LINGERING THROUGH A PORTION OF THE
DAY TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50" FROM WEST TO EAST SEEM MOST
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...WHICH COULD LEAD TO 1-3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA..TRANSITIONING TO LESS IN THE
WAY OF SNOW AND A LITTLE MORE FREEZING RAIN TO NORTH AND EAST. THIS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON QPF AND THE TIMING OF THE WARM NOSE
WHICH WILL BECOME BETTER HANDLED MUCH CLOSER TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE
STORM.