Texas Winter 2010-2011

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

We will know fairly soon if the FW NWS decides to upgrade the watch into a warning for some areas in the AFD.

[Ntxw]

If I recall correctly, the criteria for a warning is 4+ inches as a general idea. That would probably verify just to the E/NE of DFW based on consensus.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

If I recall correctly, the criteria for a warning is 4+ inches as a general idea. That would probably verify just to the E/NE of DFW based on consensus.

I think that's about right.
I also agree with you on the areas E/NE of DFW getting upgraded to a warning with the AFD.

[kb75007]

hmm so something drastic would have to change for us to know were getting 4+ inches?

[txagwxman]

ECMWF going low teens Wednesday in NE TX with the snow cover.

[iorange55]

FW NWS

MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS FORECAST. WE FEEL CONFIDENT
THAT MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE WINTER WEATHER. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. A LOT OF THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST HINGES ON MESOSCALE PHENOMENA. THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THE TEXAS COAST UP INTO SOUTHERN
NORTH TEXAS. THEY FORECAST THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE TO DEVELOP A
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY WHICH WILL CREATE A MID-LEVEL
MESOSCALE LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH TEXAS. IF IT FORMS THIS
LOW WILL VEER THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SHUNT THE BEST
MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE METROPLEX AND NORTHERN NORTH
TEXAS...LIMITING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THIS PROCESS IS SIMILAR TO A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX FORMING IN THE SUMMER. THE GFS AND
NAM ARE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS AND DO NOT HANDLE MESOSCALE
PHENOMENA WELL...SO WE CANNOT SAY WITH CERTAINTY THAT THE LOW
WILL OR WILL NOT FORM. NO LOW...MORE SNOW.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURES BEFORE SUNRISE...AS
PRECIP WILL ENHANCE THE COOLING PROCESS AND CONTINUE IT DURING
THE DAY. AREAS THAT START OUT AS RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AND THEN TO SNOW LATER IN THE DAY. IN THE SOUTH...THIS WILL
BE DELAYED ENOUGH THAT PRECIP WILL BE TAPERING OFF BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER IS COMPLETE. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF SLEET MIXING
IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BUT RAIN AND SNOW APPEAR TO BE THE
DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPES.

GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MEANS
THAT ROADS SHOULD SHED A LOT OF THE SNOW. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
WILL COOL MUCH MORE QUICKLY AND WILL POSE A TRAFFIC HAZARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS. AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS...RE-FREEZING THAT OCCURS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY MAKE
THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE MORE HAZARDOUS THAN SUNDAY DURING THE
PRECIP. MONDAY WILL NOT SEE MUCH OF A WARM UP...WITH HIGHS NEAR
40 IN FAR SOUTHERN NORTH TEXAS RANGING TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE NORTH.

THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND NEAR 50 SOUTH EXPECTED THURSDAY. 84

A "meh" discussion.

[Ntxw]

We're getting some help from the HPC. Starting to nudge into that 40%.



Feeling lucky?

[Ntxw]

Latest GFS breaks snow out in our western counties as well. Probably starting in the Mineral Wells area. 3-4 inches in Ft Worth Verbatim. The entire column quickly goes below 0c. All in all 2-4 inches Metroplex which pretty much the ballpark NWS has.

[iorange55]

Looking like the snow is coming and a nice amount of it (at least for us in North Texas) I'd imagine if we hadn't of had that foot last year this would be even bigger news than it is.

[WacoWx]

i'm doubtful here and I havent read the last 10 pages, but do the words "Waco" and "Winter Weather" ever get mixed together in a pro snow-minded manner for me? (is it gonna snow/mix in Waco?)

[Ntxw]

i'm doubtful here and I havent read the last 10 pages, but do the words "Waco" and "Winter Weather" ever get mixed together in a pro snow-minded manner for me? (is it gonna snow/mix in Waco?)

There's a small small chance for a brief changeover period when the low passes overhead in Waco or maybe sleet. My avatar (coincidence) gives a general idea of what the radar might look like. Of course not that heavily lol at least I think not.

Texarkana still is the sweet spot anywhere. We better be getting awesome pictures from Kelarie!

[WacoWx]

i know that radar all too well. story of my life

[Turtle]

000
FXUS64 KSHV 082203
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
403 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...
WINTER STORM STILL HEADING TO PARTS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. HOWEVER
THE AREA AFFECTED BY HEAVY WINTER PRECIPITATION NOW LOOKS TO BE
CONFINED TO AREAS WELL NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. SO HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...ADJACENT NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. WITH THAT SAID...AREAS ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET...SO HAVE KEPT
THE WINTER STORM WATCH GOING FOR NOW. IN THIS AREA...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE KEY. IF READINGS END UP BELOW FREEZING
TONIGHT IN ANY PORTION OF THIS AREA...WHEN THE PRECIPITATION
BEGINS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING PROBLEMS MAY ARISE. AT THE CURRENT
TIME AND WITH THE CURRENT MODEL AGREEMENT...A WARM AIR INTRUSION
UP TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING BETWEEN 3 AND 6 THOUSAND FEET LOOKS
LIKELY. THIS WOULD MEAN THE PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF SLEET AND RAIN AT THE ONSET. WITH THE EXPECTED
QFP...TOTAL WATER EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE ORDER OF
ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SO THE
TEMPERATURES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DETERMINE IF IT IS JUST
MAINLY A RAIN EVENT OR A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM. AT THIS TIME WILL
ALLOW THE EVENING OR NIGHT SHIFT TO DETERMINE IF A WARNING OR
ADVISORY IS NECESSARY.

[txagwxman]

18F Dewpoint Sulpher Springs, TX.

[Portastorm]

i know that radar all too well. story of my life

To my friend 100 miles north ... I feel your pain.

I've built more cold rainmen in the last few winters than anyone, including H-town folks!

[benrayrog]

So what's the latest? Haven't seen many updates lately.

[BigB0882]

I thought the low was trending more south, so why are they saying now it looks like the frozen precip will be even further north?

[Ntxw]

I thought the low was trending more south, so why are they saying now it looks like the frozen precip will be even further north?

It's the calm before the storm. We've disected, drilled, taken apart every model run to the nth power. Not much to do now but wait and see

BigB, south or north wouldn't make a huge difference, it's the strength of the storm and location of cold air does. A further north solution would have more snow because there are more places cold enough for snow. A more southern track is less snow because the moisture shield would be further south in warmer areas. Except for people directly under the influence of the cold core low which might get brief changeovers, hence a stronger storm = colder core.

[ndale]

i know that radar all too well. story of my life

Don't give up all hope, this is the nws forecast for Waco tomorrow:
Sunday: Rain and snow, mainly before noon. High near 37. East northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

[Portastorm]

Well said, Ntxw!

And as you mentioned earlier, we're in "nowcast" time for this event ... watching satellite, observing soundings and surface temps and dew points, latest forecast dicussions, and seeing how the upper low is moving and where its moving and comparing that to model initializations at certain times, etc.