Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Brent]

[Ivanhater]

I really hope this turns out not to be ice. I am currently passing evergreen Alabama heading north. I have a meeting back in Pensacola Monday morning but if there is ice I will wait to travel back

[BigB0882]

It's like the snow line is allergic to crossing the MS and LA border to the south. lol

[Lane]

How are the latest models looking? Are they still going north or (fingers crossed) south?

[Brent]

I really hope this turns out not to be ice. I am currently passing evergreen Alabama heading north. I have a meeting back in Pensacola Monday morning but if there is ice I will wait to travel back

Really worried about major ice from Montgomery/Auburn south. North of there it should be fairly light(a glaze I'm thinking) on top of some snow(more as you head north towards I-20).

Lane... how close are you to Montgomery? I still really don't know exactly what to expect between I-20 and I-85... it could be significant snow and no ice, or it could be a little snow and pretty major ice. Gonna be a close call. I am pretty sure whatever happens it will start as snow and will fall as snow during the evening hours, then after midnight go freezing rain/sleet. How early that happens decides how much ice obviously.

The 18z models did shift south which would normally be good, but the problem is the warm nose still shows up, so I think almost everyone outside of north of I-20 will changeover to ice at some point. Hopefully it's overdone. I certainly wouldn't rule out anything at this point. Significant snow is possible deep into Central Alabama, but not likely.

[Lane]

Brent I live in Tallassee, about 30 or so miles ene of montgomery closer to Auburn.

[Brent]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
721 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FOUR STATE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. THE WINTER
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS EARLY AS THE PREDAWN HOURS
SUNDAY MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

LAZ001>006-010>014-021-TXZ124>126-137-138-151-091100-
/O.UPG.KSHV.WS.A.0001.110109T1200Z-110110T0600Z/
/O.EXA.KSHV.WS.W.0001.110109T1200Z-110110T0600Z/
CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-UNION LA-DE SOTO-
RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-CALDWELL-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-
GREGG-HARRISON-PANOLA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...
HOMER...RUSTON...FARMERVILLE...MANSFIELD...COUSHATTA...
BIENVILLE...JONESBORO...MONROE...COLUMBIA...QUITMAN...GILMER...
JEFFERSON...LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...CARTHAGE
721 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
CST SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR ICE...SLEET...AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WARNING WILL
BE FOR THE AREA ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* RAIN AND SLEET SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND SPREAD INTO NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN...
MIXED WITH THE SLEET SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS AND THIS MAY FALL AFTER...OR IN COMBINATION WITH ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE OR HIGHER...ALONG WITH SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE INCH OR POSSIBLY HIGHER.

* MAIN IMPACT WILL BE ICE ACCUMULATION ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME BREAKAGE OF
TREE LIMBS COULD OCCUR...RESULTING IN ISOLATED POWER FAILURES...
ESPECIALLY IF THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

[Cristina]

What can we expect 40 miles north of Atlanta? Thanks for any input...

[Kennethb]

It's like the snow line is allergic to crossing the MS and LA border to the south. lol

Yes, This is a classic setup for south Louisiana and here in Baton Rouge for a cold rain. If this was a typical clear night, we would see a low in the low to mid 30s. Ideally we would like to have it remain clear all night and let clouds move in at dawn. But what will happen is that clouds will move in this evening and we will still be in the 40s in the morning. We could see a couple of ice pellets as the rain begins. As rainfall increases the temperature will find a spot in the upper 30's and remain there all day and into Sunday night as the rain comes to an end. Really do not think we will see any sleet at all. I cannot recall any event since the early 1970's where precitation mixed with or turned to sleet as the precipitation ended.

As most of the time here, the snow is so close yet so far.

[Brent]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
817 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY...

A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND COLD AIR TO PRODUCE
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-091100-
/O.UPG.KHUN.WS.A.0001.110109T2100Z-110111T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KHUN.WS.W.0001.110110T0000Z-110111T0000Z/
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...
RUSSELLVILLE...MOULTON...ATHENS...HUNTSVILLE...DECATUR...
GUNTERSVILLE...SCOTTSBORO...FORT PAYNE...CULLMAN...LYNCHBURG...
FAYETTEVILLE...WINCHESTER
817 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM
CST MONDAY. THIS REPLACES THE WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED: SNOW WILL BEGIN AROUND 6 PM SUNDAY
ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND CULLMAN COUNTY...AND QUICKLY SPREAD
OVER THE REST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW
MAY CHANGE TO LIGHT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

* OTHER HAZARDS: THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY SNOWFALL
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY...MAKING DRIVING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS. A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH COULD CREATE A THIN LAYER OF ICE ATOP ANY EXISTING
SNOWFALL.

* IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH MANY
ROADWAYS LIKELY BECOMING SNOW COVERED OVERNIGHT. TRAVEL ON MONDAY
WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT AT BEST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND
WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

[Brent]

0z NAM looks awful. Major ice storm even for I-20. Very little, and I mean very little snow south of there.

[Raebie]

What's it looking likefor the Piedmont?

[Brent]

What's it looking likefor the Piedmont?

Precip mostly disappears...

[MSUChristian88]

Models still agree on 4-8+ inches for the Starkville, Ms area?

[Raebie]

What's it looking likefor the Piedmont?

Precip mostly disappears...

What?? Nothing?

[Brent]

What's it looking likefor the Piedmont?

Precip mostly disappears...

What?? Nothing?

It starts slow and finally delivers a couple inches. Further NE in Raleigh gets totally screwed.

This run is however a HUGE snow event for North MS/AL/GA, widespread 6-10". I-20 south looks very very icy, possibly including Birmingham and Atlanta.

[Raebie]

Thanks Brent. You just saved me a total headache at the store tomorrow.

[hcaeb]

How about the Sandhills of NC? I can not seem to find anyone to post on the other thread.

[bella_may]

What about for just north of montgomery? Wc is sayin over an inch of snow

[timNms]

What is causing the warm wedge? And what happens if the warm wedge doesn't materialize as some models are advertising?