Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Ntxw]

Lol, no wife here yet. I might go to bed early though or just stay up all night. Hopefully since we were so lucky last year we won't get burned this year.

Lets hope it's not just a cold rain like JB thinks lol. Here's to hoping he is dead wrong!

[Brandon8181]

Yep iorange, I would advise doing like Ntsw said and getting some rest now. Get up about 3 a.m. and make a long day of it tomorrow.

Lol, no wife here yet. I might go to bed early though or just stay up all night. Hopefully since we were so lucky last year we won't get burned this year.

That would be true about getting burned..

Everyone here is pretty excited.

[kb75007]

What are the temps supposed to do tonight? I heard they were going to drop throughout the day tomorrow, and also heard they would be steady and not really drop. Is it still unsure about it?

[Brandon8181]

What are the temps supposed to do tonight? I heard they were going to drop throughout the day tomorrow, and also heard they would be steady and not really drop. Is it still unsure about it?

I feel like temperatures will remain somewhat steady then slowly drop over night...and then drop more during the day; then start dropping a lot Sunday night into Monday.

[johnbasham]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
618 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST TO UPGRADE FROM A WATCH FOR THE
AREA ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THIS WAS
BASED ON THE MODEL SOUNDING FORECAST...ALONG WITH THE AMOUNTS OF
ICE ACCUMULATION FROM HEAVY SLEET AT TIMES...AND BRIEF FREEZING
RAIN, THE ICE ACCUMULATION OF ONE QUARTER TO UP TO NEAR ONE HALF
INCH WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY THE SNOW AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE
INCHES. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO CHANGE
OVER TO MOSTLY ALL SNOW WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OF SLEET. /06/

&&

Looks like they are seeing the same thing as me with the last 2 model runs and the SREF.
The atmosphere could support a large area ice storm across portions of North Central & Northeast Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.

This ice accumulation would be in addition to the snow. Ice anywhere from .10" to .40" are possible in some areas by late Sunday.

Basham

[iorange55]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
618 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST TO UPGRADE FROM A WATCH FOR THE
AREA ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THIS WAS
BASED ON THE MODEL SOUNDING FORECAST...ALONG WITH THE AMOUNTS OF
ICE ACCUMULATION FROM HEAVY SLEET AT TIMES...AND BRIEF FREEZING
RAIN, THE ICE ACCUMULATION OF ONE QUARTER TO UP TO NEAR ONE HALF
INCH WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY THE SNOW AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE
INCHES. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO CHANGE
OVER TO MOSTLY ALL SNOW WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OF SLEET. /06/

&&

Looks like they are seeing the same thing as me with the last 2 model runs and the SREF.
The atmosphere could support a large area ice storm across portions of North Central & Northeast Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.

This ice accumulation would be in addition to the snow. Ice anywhere from .10" to .40" are possible in some areas by late Sunday.

Basham

Had a fun storm last year. This might be a nasty one.

[Ntxw]

Luckily this is happening on a Sunday where rush hour traffic isn't too big a problem, Monday morning looks a bit tricky though.

Question! Does anyone know where I can find the soundings information from the local weather office live time? I know they let balloons up twice a day 12z and 0z.

Edit: Nvm found it

[MSUDawg]

Hello everyone... been following along for the past week since I found this site.
Living in the southeast (MS/AL) my whole life until August I'm always the excited to see snow pop up on forecast.

I'm interested in the latest update by John. Enjoy the products you post which are very easy to follow for a newbie.
What has changed in the forecast that would cause the snow to change over to a wintry mix in the evening hours as the storm moves east. Warmer air flowing into the "mid-levels" therefor changing snow into rain and then freezing on the way back down? is this correct.
Thanks for everyone on the site.. I will try not to ask too many questions. Weather is a very interesting subject for me and one I enjoy casually reading about.
I'm hoping the 3-5 comes true in my specific area..though I know DFW airport doesn't..(I'm very close to the airport)

[Ntxw]

Hello everyone... been following along for the past week since I found this site.
Living in the southeast (MS/AL) my whole life until August I'm always the excited to see snow pop up on forecast.

I'm interested in the latest update by John. Enjoy the products you post which are very easy to follow for a newbie.
What has changed in the forecast that would cause the snow to change over to a wintry mix in the evening hours as the storm moves east. Warmer air flowing into the "mid-levels" therefor changing snow into rain and then freezing on the way back down? is this correct.
Thanks for everyone on the site.. I will try not to ask too many questions. Weather is a very interesting subject for me and one I enjoy casually reading about.
I'm hoping the 3-5 comes true in my specific area..though I know DFW airport doesn't..(I'm very close to the airport)

Welcome to the board! I hope you get to see the snow here! Living around these parts can be fun as we aren't devoid of snow as some places (please refer to Portastorm for details), but we often get burned. Feel free to ask questions!

[Ntxw]

NAM starts out sleet, then changes to all snow with a widespread 3+ inches for the metroplex with 5+ somewhere in the core. 0c top to bottom.

And then 6+ Metroplex Snow all the way to Abilene.

Edit 3: Someone in the Metroplex has 10.

Cold run...difference here is the low closes off and drills NTX. The RUC has been hinting at a closed low idea.

[txagwxman]

00z NAM cold enough....2m temps are < 32F DFW after 18z.

Enjoy...DFW TYR GGG TXK.

[wxman57]

If I was in Dallas hoping for snow, I'd be concerned that the temperature is currently in the low 40s with a dewpoint in the 24 degree range. That's really borderline for snow tomorrow. The farther east you are in the Metroplex, the better the chance of snow. Going to be close...

[Brandon8181]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
741 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

TXZ093>095-102>107-117>123-131>134-091000-
/O.CON.KFWD.WS.A.0001.110109T0900Z-110110T0600Z/
GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-PARKER-
TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...
DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...
CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...EDGEWOOD...EMORY...POINT...
EAST TAWAKONI...GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...
CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...
GLENN HEIGHTS
741 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM CST SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HEAVY SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM CST
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR WEST TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND AFFECT NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT. AREAS
OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE
SURGES NORTHWARD. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO SNOW BEGINNING
SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A VERY
FLUID SITUATION AND MANY FACTORS MAY CHANGE THE FORECAST. IT
SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT IF TEMPERATURES WERE TO BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER...NO SNOW WOULD FALL IN AND AROUND THE METROPLEX. AT THIS
TIME...TEMPERATURES DO APPEAR TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

PORTIONS OR ALL OF THIS WATCH COULD BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING OVERNIGHT IF THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY ARE NOW.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
PERSONS WITH PLANNED TRAVEL ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
INTO LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
CLOSELY FOR ANY CHANGES.

$$

[iorange55]

NAM starts out sleet, then changes to all snow with a widespread 3+ inches for the metroplex with 5+ somewhere in the core. 0c top to bottom.

And then 6+ Metroplex Snow all the way to Abilene.

Edit 3: Someone in the Metroplex has 10.

Cold run...difference here is the low closes off and drills NTX. The RUC has been hinting at a closed low idea.

Well um uh yeah....I'll be watching? Let's see what the GFS says and then really it's just all about watching.

[txagwxman]

If I was in Dallas hoping for snow, I'd be concerned that the temperature is currently in the low 40s with a dewpoint in the 24 degree range. That's really borderline for snow tomorrow. The farther east you are in the Metroplex, the better the chance of snow. Going to be close...

Yea going to be close...but see if the NAM has it right...strong vertical motion underneath the comma head should do the trick, plus melting of graupel/snow aloft should cool the 850 - 950 mb layer enough for snow, plus NAM < 540 mb thickness after 18z. But again only a model.

[iorange55]

Lol, all these discussions are so eerily similar to last year. Model shows high amounts of snow but it's so close who really knows...yadda...yadda. Only this time we'll get burned.

At least that is how I think I can trick Mother Nature into giving us another snow event.

[txagwxman]

CLOSE.

[Ntxw]

Lol, all these discussions are so eerily similar to last year. Model shows high amounts of snow but it's so close who really knows...yadda...yadda. Only this time we'll get burned.

At least that is how I think I can trick Mother Nature into giving us another snow event.

That's what makes it fun! Here's how I see it. The NWS didn't buy it until late in the game last year and said 2-3 inches = we got a foot. This year same ordeal, temps, precip too far south etc etc NWS says 2-4 = 15+! Lol...

[txagwxman]

Won't start out as snow in Dallas ... rain first.

[iorange55]

Won't start out as snow in Dallas ... rain first.

You just said that so it would sound even more like last year. Although it seems pretty given that it'll be rain at first this time.