Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Brent]

What is causing the warm wedge? And what happens if the warm wedge doesn't materialize as some models are advertising?

The low is too weak and has warm air aloft.

If the wedge wasn't there this would be a massive snowstorm everywhere.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I thought the low has been forecast to be stronger. They have gale warnings in effect for my fishing grounds around SE LA winds upwards of 45kts. And talk about a crappy forecast. For sunday night we have a 90% chance of heavy rain with a low of 33. No mention of anything frozen.

[Brent]

I thought the low has been forecast to be stronger. They have gale warnings in effect for my fishing grounds around SE LA winds upwards of 45kts. And talk about a crappy forecast. For sunday night we have a 90% chance of heavy rain with a low of 33. No mention of anything frozen.

Your guess is as good as mine. The low will be weakening once it passes here(highly unusual, usually our lows that give us snow/ice are strengthening). This one is weird.

[Brent]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
930 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...

.A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER A VERY COLD AIR MASS. AS A RESULT...SNOW...
FREEZING RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SLEET CAN BE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

ALZ011>015-017>029-091200-
/O.UPG.KBMX.WS.A.0001.110109T1800Z-110111T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBMX.WS.W.0001.110109T1800Z-110111T0000Z/
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMILTON...SULLIGENT...VERNON...
FAYETTE...DOUBLE SPRINGS...JASPER...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...
ANNISTON...CENTRE...HEFLIN...CARROLLTON...TUSCALOOSA...
BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...COLUMBIANA...PELHAM...ALABASTER...
PELL CITY...MOODY...TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...ROANOKE
930 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6
PM CST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER WEST ALABAMA STARTING LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING EASTWARD SUNDAY EVENING. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM
2 TO 6 INCHES... WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

IN ADDITION...SNOW MAY TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE-TENTH OF
AN INCH. ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE COULD VERY WELL DAMAGE
TREES AND POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
930 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...

.A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER A VERY COLD AIR MASS. AS A RESULT...SNOW...
FREEZING RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SLEET CAN BE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

ALZ030>050-091200-
/O.UPG.KBMX.WS.A.0001.110109T1800Z-110111T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBMX.WS.W.0001.110109T1800Z-110111T0000Z/
SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-
MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-
LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LIVINGSTON...EUTAW...GREENSBORO...
MOUNDVILLE...MARION...CENTREVILLE...CLANTON...ROCKFORD...
ALEXANDER CITY...DADEVILLE...VALLEY...LANETT...LAFAYETTE...
DEMOPOLIS...LINDEN...SELMA...PRATTVILLE...FORT DEPOSIT...
HAYNEVILLE...WETUMPKA...TALLASSEE...MONTGOMERY...TUSKEGEE...
UNION SPRINGS...AUBURN...OPELIKA...PHENIX CITY...TROY...EUFAULA
930 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR MIXTURE OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM CST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH
IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE STARTING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND SPREADING EASTWARD SUNDAY
EVENING. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW
BUT TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF DEMOPOLIS...TO SELMA...TO
AUBURN LINE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.

ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE COULD VERY WELL DAMAGE TREES AND
POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND ICE
ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS
OR IMPOSSIBLE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND FREEZING
RAIN. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN
EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY.TRAVEL IS LIKELY TO BE SEVERELY IMPACTED.

&&

$$

[Ivanhater]

Just got to my destination outside of Auburn (ugh Roll Tide!) Hopefully tomorrow things will change and it will be mostly snow instead of ice. Will try to drive back to Pensacola tomorrow evening if possible.

[Snowluvr]

I think there will be a suprise for southern Ms. Currently temps are in the mid 30s with low dewpoints and a north to northeasterly wind. The temp should drop to at least 30 if not lower and once the precip begins I don't see how the temp is gonna warm very much with that wind coming out of the north or northeast. Now if it were to shift out of the south or southwest that would be a different situation.

[Brent]

Just got to my destination outside of Auburn (ugh Roll Tide!) Hopefully tomorrow things will change and it will be mostly snow instead of ice. Will try to drive back to Pensacola tomorrow evening if possible.

BMX just updated... for Auburn looks like 1-2" of snow and then a quarter to half inch of ice. I'm hoping it's all snow too. Good luck.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Lucky You, Lucky You. Hey Brent will gladly trade you our weather of low 30's and rain for a little of your snow and ice

[SunnyThoughts]

Good luck everybody with all the ice thats apparently headed to many parts of the south. Yikes Ivan/Michael...you stay put if those roads are icy tomorrow night.

[NDG]

I still find it crazy that people from the coastal areas want to travel north to find the snow and then drive back. I see a lot of sleet and freezing rain in between the all snow areas far north and liquid precipitation closer to the coast.
Ivanhater, at least you drove there before precip starts but make sure you check conditions on the road before driving back south tomorrow night.

[Brent]

Updated forecast for me:
Sunday...Partly cloudy in the morning...then cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday Night...Snow in the evening...then freezing rain or snow or sleet after midnight. Snow and sleet accumulation around 3 inches. Ice accumulation of up to one quarter of an inch. Near steady temperature in the upper 20s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Monday...Light freezing rain and light sleet in the morning... Then light freezing rain or light sleet likely in the afternoon. Ice accumulation of up to one quarter of an inch. Highs in the lower 30s. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

Monday Night...Cloudy. Slight chance of light freezing drizzle and flurries. Lows in the upper 20s. Northeast winds around 5 mph in the evening then becoming light.

[Raebie]

Charlotte mets still forecasting 3-5 inches with .10 of ice on top. Guess I'm off to the store after all.

[Jag95]

Last two GFS/NAM model runs have backed off the amounts for central AL and GA, but still rock northern LA, central MS and north AL with 6+ inches. Still a guessing game though because they're never perfect. It'll be interesting watching how this plays out. Heavy rain with thunderstorms developing in central TX with the low center near the Big Bend.

[MGC]

Radar in Texas lighting up like a Christmas tree....down to 43 at my place here one block off the beach in Mississippi...real dry air so once the rain starts it should cool the air real fast....MGC

[Janie2006]

Unless something changes, anyone from the coast trying to "meet the snow" in central/ northern Mississippi or Alabama will have to run the gauntlet of ice and run the risk of getting stuck exactly where they are. In other words, I wouldn't try it unless you're an experienced snow hunter. Even a small amount of ice can cause tremendous problems. Travel may very well be almost impossible in some of those areas Sunday night and Monday morning.

[Metalicwx220]

Come on seriously. ALMOST THE WHOLE STATE OF GEORGIA IS UNDER A WINTER STORM WATCH. MAYBE SOUTHEAST AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IS SURROUNDED BY A FORCEFIELD FROM SNOW. OUR HOURLY FORCECAST HAS ONE HOUR OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN SAVANNAH. WHATS THE POINT OF THAT?

[BigB0882]

Does anyone know what TSPL stands for? I have never seen it but it is showing up on the GFS forecast and I can't figure it out. Something to do with tropical weather from the low?

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kbtr.txt

It shows .59 in Tprcp and .04 in Cprcp. What are the differences?

[Brent]

Does anyone know what TSPL stands for? I have never seen it but it is showing up on the GFS forecast and I can't figure it out. Something to do with tropical weather from the low?

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kbtr.txt

It shows .59 in Tprcp and .04 in Cprcp. What are the differences?

well PL is sleet so TSPL must be thundersleet...

and in related news, my college has outright closed Monday. 2nd day of classes... XD

[BigB0882]

Thanks! Sounds fun, lol Could you explain the difference between the Tprcp column and the Cprcp column?

[Metalicwx220]

I want strong storms and wind. Better than plain rain. You guys are gonna enjoy the wintry mix and ice and snow and thunder. SOUNDS FUN!