Texas Winter 2010-2011

[iorange55]

The GFS 00z is not good at all.

[Texas2Florida]

Snow flurries with an air temp of 46? Really??

Wow, there must be some amazing evaporative cooling going on up there.

Well something was going on for about 5 minutes. Everyone ran outside to see, then stood around scratching their heads like "now what"?

[serenata09]

The GFS 00z is not good at all.

Meh. We'll find out for sure soon enough.

[Portastorm]

Hey, if you saw it, you saw it ... not trying to refute the report. I was just very surprised because the air temp is so warm in a relative sense. But it certainly is possible.

When it snows in the mid 40s, there's a great deal of evaporative cooling going on in the atmosphere and the dynamic process of the water droplet freezing/melting/freezing really cools the air column.

[Parker_County1]

This is my first time to ever post here.

I live in Weatherford and I will try to keep you updated as to what's happening here in Parker County.

We are not predicted to get as much ice or snow as those of you further east, but we will probably get the precipitation first.

So far there has been no precipitation at all here at my house. It is currently cloudy and 45 degrees.

[DonWrk]

Just raised the low for my area from 34 to 37. Currently 40 degrees here with very very small flurries.

[Ntxw]

This is my first time to ever post here.

I live in Weatherford and I will try to keep you updated as to what's happening here in Parker County.

We are not predicted to get as much ice or snow as those of you further east, but we will probably get the precipitation first.

So far there has been no precipitation at all here at my house. It is currently cloudy and 45 degrees.

Welcome on board! Nice to have yet another live action observer!

[iorange55]

The GFS has really put a damper on my mood, but here is to hoping it is wrong!

[newtotex]

Hows it going all, since the event is this close to happening, how sure are we that this is actually going to pan out. Also, with the tmeps in the 40's and there being flurries already does that mean the atmosphere is more primed for it to snow?

[kb75007]

I like the sound of this:
Rest of Tonight
Cloudy. A chance of showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm late in the evening...then rain...snow likely and isolated thunderstorms after midnight. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Lows in the lower 30s. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
Sunday
Cloudy. Snow likely in the morning...then a chance of snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 3 to 4 inches. Total snow accumulation 3 to 5 inches. Highs in the mid 30s. Temperature steady or slowly falling in the afternoon. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.

But some of you guys don't seem to confident!

[Brandon8181]

The GFS 00z is not good at all.

Looked like temperatures seemed a bit warmer too. And remember, a small temperature increase could make this an all rain event.

[Ellsey]

Well I'll jump in here for the first time too. I'm in McKinney where it's 40 and...dry. Hoping for some white stuff around here!

[Ntxw]

Our dewpoint keeps dropping so that's a plus! Moisture does seem to be moving in quicker than initialized I think. But that again is splitting hairs.

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
927 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

.UPDATE...
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
IN RESPONSE TO WIDESPREAD ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA DIGGING IN FROM THE WEST. GETTING SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER AT TIMES AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
TONIGHT`S PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.

MAIN ISSUE IS ONSET OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND EXACTLY WHERE
AND HOW SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE. 00Z NAM IS COLDER
OVERALL BUT ALSO A BIT BEHIND SCHEDULE WITH RESPECT TO THE ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION. THOUGH A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET HAVE ALREADY BEEN
CALLED IN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY WARM AND FEEL ANY
SLEET OR SNOW THAT FALLS OVERNIGHT HAS VERY LITTLE CHANCE TO
ACCUMULATE. WOULD PREFER TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL DATA AND ALLOW MID
CREW TO ASSESS THE SITUATION BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY OR PERHAPS EVEN A WARNING. TIMING WOULD MOST
LIKELY BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SUNDAY BASED ON FORECAST TEMPERATURE & MOISTURE PROFILES.

[Ntxw]

This probably isn't going to happen but it sure does look nice for us dreamers. Only seen it like this once before...sure you all know...I'd post the GFS but it's the complete opposite as mentioned. So save it, pin it up, and stare at it for the winter that was!

[iorange55]

This probably isn't going to happen but it sure does look nice for us dreamers. Only seen it like this once before...sure you all know...I'd post the GFS but it's the complete opposite as mentioned.

I sure hope the GFS isn't right. That would be such a bummer, it's weird how they can vary from "no snow" to "15 inches of snow"

[kb75007]

The guy on NBC mentioned that if the storms tomorrow were very heavy in south texas it could cause the moisture flow to kind of cut off the flow to us a little bit, do you guys agree?

[srainhoutx]

The guy on NBC mentioned that if the storms tomorrow were very heavy in south texas it could cause the moisture flow to kind of cut off the flow to us a little bit, do you guys agree?

FWD mentioned this possibility in the afternoon AFD...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011/
256 PM
MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS FORECAST. WE FEEL CONFIDENT
THAT MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE WINTER WEATHER. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. A LOT OF THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST HINGES ON MESOSCALE PHENOMENA. THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THE TEXAS COAST UP INTO SOUTHERN
NORTH TEXAS. THEY FORECAST THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE TO DEVELOP A
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY WHICH WILL CREATE A MID-LEVEL
MESOSCALE LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH TEXAS. IF IT FORMS THIS
LOW WILL VEER THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SHUNT THE BEST
MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE METROPLEX AND NORTHERN NORTH
TEXAS...LIMITING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THIS PROCESS IS SIMILAR TO A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX FORMING IN THE SUMMER. THE GFS AND
NAM ARE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS AND DO NOT HANDLE MESOSCALE
PHENOMENA WELL...SO WE CANNOT SAY WITH CERTAINTY THAT THE LOW
WILL OR WILL NOT FORM. NO LOW...MORE SNOW.

[johnbasham]

Thought I'd post our (Storm Spotter METOPS) overnight meteorologists forecast graphic for tomorrow.
We've really been focusing a lot of our efforts in NE TX and along the red river with heavy snow.

Also the potential for a significant Ice Storm from N Central Texas to Northern Mississippi tomorrow has been a real time consuming effort in our client alert decisions.

A quick look across the metroplex shows the best chance for significant snow accumulations tomorrow in Collin County.

The idea of a sleet/freezing rain mix with ice accumulations from .10' - .40" in isolated spots across the area. There will ALSO be some snow accumulations, but our concern is not with the snow, but with the ice.



We'll do an early morning update (3am) to better detail the forecast track of the system.

Basham

[kb75007]

I've also noticed that every local meteorologist have different opionions and totally different scenarios for this storm. One says it isnt going to drop belowing freezing until 6 pm tomorrow night, and others said the rain will change to snow tonight and the temp will be down to 30 by 3 pm. I'm thinking no one really knows what is going to happen and we have to wait and see.