Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Ntxw]

I've also noticed that every local meteorologist have different opionions and totally different scenarios for this storm. One says it isnt going to drop belowing freezing until 6 pm tomorrow night, and others said the rain will change to snow tonight and the temp will be down to 30 by 3 pm. I'm thinking no one really knows what is going to happen and we have to wait and see.

Yep no one knows. On top of that you have the GFS going one way and the NAM the complete opposite less than 12 hours from the event....

[iorange55]

This situation seems even crazier than last years just because the spread in the models. The local guys are still saying we're going to get snow, so I guess they aren't leaning on the GFS too much.


I can't believe there is a 15 inch disagreement between the two models.

[kb75007]

I've also noticed that every local meteorologist have different opionions and totally different scenarios for this storm. One says it isnt going to drop belowing freezing until 6 pm tomorrow night, and others said the rain will change to snow tonight and the temp will be down to 30 by 3 pm. I'm thinking no one really knows what is going to happen and we have to wait and see.

Yep no one knows. On top of that you have the GFS going one way and the NAM the complete opposite less than 12 hours from the event....

Yes, it's very weird how everyone and everything have different opinions. Fox 4 said 1-3 inches for us north of DFW, and NBC says 3-6. So no one really knows!

[Ntxw]

This situation seems even crazier than last years just because the spread in the models. The local guys are still saying we're going to get snow, so I guess they aren't leaning on the GFS too much.


I can't believe there is a 15 inch disagreement between the two models.

I'm hoping the Canadian stays the same tonight. It may not be the correct model but it sure has been the most consistent.

[somethingfunny]

I've been following this thread for most of the duration of anticipation. I haven't contributed much because I've been too busy to educate myself properly with all the models and the soundings, so I've just been educating myself through the excellent posts in this thread.

I have to work tomorrow night. I deliver pizza. In Mesquite on the eastern edge of the Metroplex. Ughhhh....

I noticed that east of here they're starting to switch their forecasts over to a pretty major ice storm. What dynamics, what reasons....why are we not expecting an ice storm here? What do you guys think.... is there a good possibility?

I really need an answer for this. I gather that ground temps will be too warm for ice but have the models been solidly consistent about no warm wedges at higher altitudes?

[kb75007]

This situation seems even crazier than last years just because the spread in the models. The local guys are still saying we're going to get snow, so I guess they aren't leaning on the GFS too much.


I can't believe there is a 15 inch disagreement between the two models.

I'm hoping the Canadian stays the same tonight. It may not be the correct model but it sure has been the most consistent.

If the canadian stays the same, do you think the NWS would issue a warning for the rest of us?

[Ntxw]

I've been following this thread for most of the duration of anticipation. I haven't contributed much because I've been too busy to educate myself properly with all the models and the soundings, so I've just been educating myself through the excellent posts in this thread.

I have to work tomorrow night. I deliver pizza. In Mesquite on the eastern edge of the Metroplex. Ughhhh....

I noticed that east of here they're starting to switch their forecasts over to a pretty major ice storm. What dynamics, what reasons....why are we not expecting an ice storm here? What do you guys think.... is there a good possibility?

I really need an answer for this. I gather that ground temps will be too warm for ice but have the models been solidly consistent about no warm wedges at higher altitudes?

That's the problem, they haven't been consistent. Each and every run of each and every model seems to depict a bit of something else. Hence tonight's 15 inch difference...same can go for upper air prediction.

And KB no I don't think so. DFW would be first in line for the wintry precip yet were the last to put up watches, and warnings are already to our east. Based on this train of thought, probably will issue if needed as it happens.

[kb75007]

So its pretty much a mystery!

[Brandon8181]

This situation seems even crazier than last years just because the spread in the models. The local guys are still saying we're going to get snow, so I guess they aren't leaning on the GFS too much.


I can't believe there is a 15 inch disagreement between the two models.

Does anyone here more experienced have any historical data on an event similar to this with 12 hours to the event and the models disagreeing so much that might can elighten us?

Why are they disagreeing so much?

[Brandon8181]

Isn't the NAM usuallly one of the better models for short term forecasts or am I wrong?

Thank you.

[Ntxw]

0z soundings from FW

[Tejas89]

Temps are going to be a problem. Can already tell. This may be a cold rain.

[newtotex]

0z soundings from FW

Thats not good? arent they suppos to be lined up?

[Texas Snowman]

The guy on NBC mentioned that if the storms tomorrow were very heavy in south texas it could cause the moisture flow to kind of cut off the flow to us a little bit, do you guys agree?

Sure, it could make a difference. You often see a similar effect in the spring when more southerly supercells move in front of the inflow going into other more northerly supercells. (It's late...does that make sense?) That cuts off the inflow into the one and causes it to weaken while the other one often cycles up and grows stronger.

[Texas Snowman]

Temps will drop. Here in Grayson County, have a temp of 42 and a dewpoint of 22. When precip starts falling, evaporative cooling will cause temp to drop.

[kb75007]

There seems to be a disagreement in the models, temps, and accumulation totals so no one really knows!

[iorange55]

There seems to be a disagreement in the models, temps, and accumulation totals so no one really knows!

Understatement.

[Brandon8181]

Temps will drop. Here in Grayson County, have a temp of 42 and a dewpoint of 22. When precip starts falling, evaporative cooling will cause temp to drop.

In Sherman, We are also 42, mostly cloudy

22 Dewpoint as well.

Waiting for temps to fall.

[kb75007]

There seems to be a disagreement in the models, temps, and accumulation totals so no one really knows!

Understatement.

Why do you say so?!

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Temps will drop. Here in Grayson County, have a temp of 42 and a dewpoint of 22. When precip starts falling, evaporative cooling will cause temp to drop.

In Sherman, We are also 42, mostly cloudy

22 Dewpoint as well.

Waiting for temps to fall.

I'm a few miles east of Denison and it's 38 here.