Texas Winter 2010-2011

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Thanks John, you're counteracting my negativity:) Would've loved to have seen 3-5 inches but I'll take a dusting at this point.

[Texas2Florida]

Well that Freezing Drizzle Sun night into Monday A.M. is new..what brought that on?

[somethingfunny]

You think this system is going to slow down John? Looks like the moisture is going to be outta here before noon. Am I wrong? I would love to be, lol. At least here in dfw. Texarkana looks to still get a few inches of snow.

Take a look at the regional radar and you'll see a second shield of rain developing near san angelo. That should actually bring us our heaviest precipitation.

[johnbasham]

Here's our forecast for 6pm tonight:

[DFW Stormwatcher]

You think this system is going to slow down John? Looks like the moisture is going to be outta here before noon. Am I wrong? I would love to be, lol. At least here in dfw. Texarkana looks to still get a few inches of snow.

Take a look at the regional radar and you'll see a second shield of rain developing near san angelo. That should actually bring us our heaviest precipitation.

Thanks something funny, I was discounting that as insignificant. Sounds great to me.

[Turtle]

John I really like your maps. Excellent job!

[Turtle]

Shreveport discussion:

000
FXUS64 KSHV 090947
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
347 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...
WINTER STORM TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE JUST TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING
AS THIS FORECAST WILL HINGE ON THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESS
FOR PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN TO
OUR WEST BUT FOR THE MOST PART AS OF 3 AM...PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS BEEN RAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE OBVIOUSLY
COOLER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS WELL AS OUR EASTERN ZONES
COMPARED TO TEMPERATURES TO OUR WEST WHERE THE RAIN IS FALLING AND
THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE ON JUST HOW MUCH SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATION OUR
AREA WILL SEE TODAY.

DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WHILE MODEL MOS SFC TEMPERATURES ARE TOO COOL ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING...FEEL LIKE ONCE THE PRECIPITATION
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WE SHOULD SEE FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE WEST AND NEAR STEADY TO
SLIGHTLY FALLING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. THE NAM
HAS NOW COME IN COLDER THAN THE GFS WHICH IS QUITE A CHANGE FOR
THIS WEATHER PATTERN AS IT HAS BEEN THE WARMER MODEL. THE GFS
NEVER SATURATES THE AIR COLUMN...EVEN WITH MODERATE PRECIPITATION
FALLING IN ITS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS MODEL
FOR THE FORECAST. INSTEAD HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A NAM/ECMWF BLEND
FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TRANSITIONS AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY
INTO THIS EVENING. HAVING SAID THAT...STILL KEEPING A MIX BAG OF
RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX THIS MORNING WITH
ALL RAIN ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES AND A MIXTURE OF SLEET
AND SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHERN THIRD FOR THIS MORNING. STILL
CONCERNED WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES WHERE HPC NOW HAS A HIGH RISK OF AT LEAST .25"
ACCUMULATIONS AND WILL HIT THIS HARD IN THE MORNING WSW PRODUCT.
IF THERE HAS BEEN A TREND OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...IT HAS BEEN FOR
A SLIGHT TRANSITION NORTH FOR THE BEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND LESS AMOUNTS ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS IS DEPICTED IN THE
MODELS AS WELL AS HPC`S INTERNAL SNOW GRAPHICS. STILL LOOKING LIKE
WE COULD SEE A 4-6" SNOW ALONG A 30 MILE WIDE AREA OF THE INTERSTATE
30 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS 2-4" ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND NORTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR OF NW LA. COULD EASILY SEE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NW LA...CLOSER TO THE ARKANSAS BORDER SEEING 2-4" THROUGH THIS
EVENING WHILE THE I-20 CORRIDOR ITSELF INCLUDING THE SHREVEPORT
AND BOSSIER CITY AREAS ONLY SEEING AN INCH OR TWO.

SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION THIS EVENING TAKING WITH IT A MAJORITY OF
THE PRECIPITATION AS TEMPERATURES COOL TO BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A WARMING OF THE 850MB LAYER AS
THE MOISTURE DEPARTS THE AIR COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN. HOWEVER...A
COLD NOSE WILL STILL EXIST BELOW THIS 850MB LAYER WITH THE
MOISTURE PROFILE STILL SATURATED BELOW 850MB. WHAT THIS COULD
RESULT IN IS A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AREAWIDE...AND HAVE THUS MADE MENTION OF THIS IN THE
FORECAST PACKAGE. DEPENDING ON IF THIS OCCURS OR NOT...EITHER AN
EXTENSION OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING OR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING
BUT WILL LET THE CURRENT WARNING PLAY OUT TODAY AND ALLOW THE DAY
SHIFT TO MAKE THE EXTENSION OR ADDITIONAL HEADLINE IF NECESSARY
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAIN ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL POISED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL COME IN DRY...BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT WHERE CLEARING SKIES AND A SNOW PACK ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL WELL INTO THE TEENS. A
WARM UP IS IN STORE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS
EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES.

[DentonGal]

Rain changing over to sleet here in Denton at 4:20. 39 degrees currently.

[Texas Snowman]

Well, you win some, you lose some.

Portastorm, Lucy showed up in North Texas overnight.

At this rate, I'll have to see the 1-3" to believe it.

[pwrdog]

Latest from Houston NWS

THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
CWA THIS AFTN. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT
NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW TO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIP TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
NORTH ZULCH TO GROVETON TO CORRIGAN. THE SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A MIX
OF RAIN AND SLEET DEVELOPING 18-21Z...WITH SNOW MIXING IN AFTER
21Z. THE WINTRY MIX WOULD PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 03Z AT WHICH POINT
THE PRECIP WOULD END. SFC TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AT THE
ONSET OF THE PRECIP AND INTENSITY WILL TREND LIGHTER THROUGH THE
AFTN. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY ACCUMULATIONS. WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY HEADLINES WITH THE THINKING THAT EVEN IF
ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR THEY WOULD REMAIN AT THE ADVISORY LEVEL.

[Turtle]

DFW Discussion (It's long!)


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
527 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...

AT FORECAST TIME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WAS OVER AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IN NORTH TX. WITH A DRY LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS PRECIPITATION...THE CONCERN WITH
THE ONSET OF THIS PRECIPITATION WAS THAT PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WOULD SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE TOP DOWN CAUSING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY. WHILE THIS PROCESS HAS LOWERED
TEMPERATES A BIT THIS MORNING...IT SEEMS THAT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION HAS PREVENTED THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE FROM WET BULBING
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE
REGION OF WIDESPREAD RAIN HAVE BEEN HOLDING IN THE UPPER 30S WITH
DEW POINT VALUES HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS LARGELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION WAS LOCATED
ROUGHLY NEAR DEL RIO...MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH TX.

REGARDING SNOW POTENTIAL TODAY...SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
REGARDING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR TODAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. THE PRIMARY
REASON FOR THIS LARGE SPREAD APPEARS TO BE HOW VARIOUS FORECAST
MODELS HANDLE THE TIMING OF THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW
ACROSS NORTH TX DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE 09/00Z NAM OFFERED UP
THE COLDEST SOLUTION OUT OF THE RANGE OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE.
THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN LARGELY DISCOUNTED AS THE MODEL WAS ALREADY
5 TO 7 DEG F TOO COOL ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES 6 HOURS INTO ITS
FORECAST...OR AROUND MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING. OTHER GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO OFFER A SIMILAR SOLUTION WHICH IS TO BRING ABOUT A TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTH TX
SLOWLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TX TODAY IT WILL
CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE TX COAST. FOR
NORTH TX THIS WILL RESULT IN A BACKING OF OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
AROUND TO THE EAST BY LATE THIS MORNING AND THRU THE AFTERNOON
HRS. WITH THE COLDEST SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES NORTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION THRU
THE LOWEST 5 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF NORTH TX.

BECAUSE THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE IS ALREADY FAIRLY SATURATED OVER
NORTH TX THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO A MORE RAPID
TEMPERATURE FALL THAT WOULD OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT OR EVEN THE WET BULBING OF A VERY DRY AIRMASS. WITH THE
COLD AIR EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO NORTH TX SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
FALL AS RAIN ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW LATER IN
THE DAY. THE LOCATIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE THOSE LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO THE COLD
AIR...AREAS GENERALLY AROUND AND NORTHEAST OF GREENVILLE. THESE
LOCATIONS MAY PICK UP AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL TODAY.
GENERALLY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF GREENVILLE. ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
MAY OCCUR OVER THE METROPLEX WITH AROUND AN INCH OF SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX.

WITH AREA SOIL TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING...THE IMPACTS OF
THIS SNOWFALL ON AREA ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOME ICY OR SLUSHY
PATCHES WHILE SNOW FALLS...HOWEVER ROAD SURFACES IN CONTACT WITH
THE GROUND MAY SEE MUCH OF THE SNOWFALL MELT DURING THE DAY TODAY.
OF COURSE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE TIED VERY CLOSELY TO THE TIMING OF
THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. IF THE COLD AIR MOVES IN
STRONGER FROM THE NORTHEAST RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW EARLIER
IN THE DAY INCREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. CONVERSELY IF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS WEAKER THAN EXPECTED
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ACROSS NORTH TX. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN ANY HEAVY /GREATER THAN 4 INCH/ SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
AREA COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY LOW ANTICIPATED IMPACT TO
TRAVELERS. CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW 4
INCHES IS INCREASED BY THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT...STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTH OF NORTH TX. THINKING IS THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID LEVEL
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY /MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/ WHICH
WILL LIKELY DIVERT THE BEST MID LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE EAST OF
NORTH TX TODAY. ASSUMING THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CAN BE TRUSTED...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL STILL
SPREAD OVER NORTH TX THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY KEEPING CONFIDENCE
HIGH IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY
PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER NORTH TX IS LOWERED SUBSTANTIALLY BY
THIS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF TO THE SOUTH.

THE NEXT AREA OF CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A SHALLOW
SATURATED LAYER IN PLACE OVER NORTH TX DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO DEPICTING SOME SHALLOW LIFT THRU THIS
LAYER WHICH RAISES CONFIDENCE IN DRIZZLE DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
NORTH TX AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY PROBLEM WITH DRIZZLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT IS THAT COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TX BELOW FREEZING BY THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE -1 TO -6 DEG C RANGE...MEANING THAT ICE CRYSTALS
WILL LIKELY NOT BE PRESENT WITHIN THIS LOW CLOUD LAYER. ASSUMING
THIS PANS OUT AS EXPECTED...SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS WILL FALL
ONTO PRIMARILY ELEVATED SURFACES THAT HAVE COOLED BELOW FREEZING
INSTANTLY CREATING A THIN ICY SHELL. BECAUSE THIS SATURATED LAYER
IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF THOUSAND FEET THICK...DRIZZLE
WILL BE LIGHT IN NATURE. HOWEVER A THIN ICY ACCUMULATION IS
LOOKING MORE LIKELY ON ELEVATED SURFACES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
TX EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ASSUMING BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
ACCUMULATE A THIN ICY COATING MONDAY MORNING THIS WOULD LIKELY
CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL DELAYS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CONTINUED THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO
COVER THIS POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE MONDAY MORNING AS THESE
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE MOST WIDESPREAD FREEZING
DRIZZLE. EVEN WITH LESS THAN A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...THIS MAY CAUSE MORE TRAVEL HEADACHES THAN
SNOWFALL TODAY ACROSS NORTH TX.

EXTENDED...DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKELY
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.

[northtxboy]

Ok so I just woke up I over slept,,,SO its not going to snow now?? when I went to bed at 11 it looked like we were going to get hammered by snow and now really nothing? I am confused what happened?

[SouthernMet]

Radar currently detecting rain-snow transition in Grayson, Fannin, and northern Collin counties.
And so it begins..

[northtxboy]

Radar currently detecting rain-snow transition in Grayson, Fannin, and northern Collin counties.
And so it begins..

I live in fannin and it is not even raining here,,,,dry as a bone

[SouthernMet]

Radar currently detecting rain-snow transition in Grayson, Fannin, and northern Collin counties.
And so it begins..

I live in fannin and it is not even raining here,,,,dry as a bone

Fannin (Bonham) is on the far eastern fringe of light precip. Stay tuned it won't be long.

[northtxboy]

Radar currently detecting rain-snow transition in Grayson, Fannin, and northern Collin counties.
And so it begins..

I live in fannin and it is not even raining here,,,,dry as a bone

Fannin (Bonham) is on the far eastern fringe of light precip. Stay tuned it won't be long.

What is ur take on this man,,so you think we will get heavy snow up here along the red river or do you think we will get a dusting to an inch like some poeple are saying

[SouthernMet]

Observations...

DFW AIRPORT RAIN 39

DALLAS LOVE HVY RAIN 39

FTW MEACHAM RAIN 38

DAL-EXECUTIVE HVY RAIN 39

FTW-ALLIANCE RAIN 37

FTW-SPINKS MIX PCPN 39

ARLINGTON RAIN 39

[DonWrk]

Had a feeling about this one last night when it was on it's way. Now I just want to go back to sleep....

[northtxboy]

You know what?, Forecasting weather is like being in a bad marriage. It has its ups and downs. she gets u all worked up and then slams the door in ur face. I keep hearing about lucy taken the football from us,,well I say we shoot lucy in the head and toss her in lake texoma

[SouthernMet]

[/quote]
What is ur take on this man,,so you think we will get heavy snow up here along the red river or do you think we will get a dusting to an inch like some poeple are saying[/quote]

Where your at in Ladonia, at this point; noone is forecasting a dusting to an inch. But your not to far off from the Winter Storm Warning area. IMO before its all said and done you can expect 2-4". I think at 6:35 i recommend you to go look outside and check back with me. What im really concerned about for your area in terms of impacts, is that you have a realistic possibility of seeing some light freezing rain or freezing drizzle develop overnight and early morning hours monday. This would happen while temps were well below freezing which would be very hazardous..because on top of 26 degree temperatures and snow on the ground would be a light accumulation of ice on roadways. So stay tuned for that ice potential.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products