Texas Winter 2010-2011

[benrayrog]

OK, what's next?

[SouthernMet]

OK, what's next?

Potential for icing and light freezing rain/drizzle.

[kb75007]

Okay well now the suns coming out! That sucks.. But they said something about freezing rain and drizzle tonight. Does it look like this will happen?

[Ntxw]

I'd hate to rain (no pun intended) on Portastorm's parade but neither the Euro or GFS really show much of anything midweek except for maybe cloud cover. Big cold high seems to crush any moisture return at the lower levels. Late week system is still barely showing on the models recently so hard to really say yet.

[Snowluvr]

I'd hate to rain (no pun intended) on Portastorm's parade but neither the Euro or GFS really show much of anything midweek except for maybe cloud cover. Big cold high seems to crush any moisture return at the lower levels. Late week system is still barely showing on the models recently so hard to really say yet.

Thanks, but weren't we supposed to get more cold coming down after a brief warm up by late next weekend?

[SouthernMet]

Stressing this to be on the safe side atm... Sort of going out on a limb.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

I may or may not be taking this to seriously.. We shall see.

IMO the NWS has a WWA until 9 am for a legit reason so i am not completely crazy.

Im thinking that within the advisory area an additional light accumulation of light freezing rain and drizzle is possible. Temperatures will be below freezing, in the mid to upper 20's in the advisory area. Any liquid from the 2.5 inches of rain we had last night/this morning will more than likely freeze as well. I urge that everyone planning to travel tommorow morning uses caution and takes extra time to get to work/school. As we all know, even a thin glaze of ice can cause significant travel impacts.

I think the main area of concern is northeast of a line from Mineral Wells to Hillsboro to Palestine line (including the metroplex)

Elsewhere patchy freezing drizzle is possible.

[Ntxw]

Thanks, but weren't we supposed to get more cold coming down after a brief warm up by late next weekend?

That's possible, but the models are different in timing (hence next weekend's possible storm is the result of incoming cold) so we don't really know for sure yet.

[SouthernMet]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
326 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2011

TXZ091-102-103-117>122-131>135-145>148-100600-
/O.CON.KFWD.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-110110T1500Z/
MONTAGUE-WISE-DENTON-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-
VAN ZANDT-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...
DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...WEATHERFORD...
BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...
KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...
EDGEWOOD...GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...
BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...
ATHENS...GUN BARREL CITY...HILLSBORO...CORSICANA...TEAGUE...
FAIRFIELD...PALESTINE
326 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST
MONDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY.

THE SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...BUT FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 20S...FURTHER ICING OF AREA ROADWAYS IS EXPECTED AS THE
DRIZZLE FREEZES ON CONTACT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 9 AM
CST.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND PLAN ON SOME TRAVEL DELAYS.

[SouthernMet]

Reasonable discussion of the event tonight out of San Angleo NWSFO

A SURFACE BOUNDARY...EXTENDING FROM
NEAR BIG SPRING TO JUST EAST OF JUNCTION...MARKED THE SEPARATION
BETWEEN DRY AIR TO THE WEST AND MOIST AIR TO THE EAST. THE 12Z
MODELS SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT WITH THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE IMPLCATIONS
FOR THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF LOW CLOUD...

FOG AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT.MODELS SHOW CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO NEAR
SATURATION EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUD FIELD TO EXPAND TO
THE WEST TONIGHT...TO NEAR A SWEETWATER-SAN ANGELO-JUNCTION LINE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...DEPENDING ON THE TEMPERATURES. HAVE INCLUDED
THESE ELEMENTS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS...BASED ON THE EXPECTED
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN A NEARLY SATURATED
AIRMASS...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITY DROPPING
BELOW 1/2 MILE OVERNIGHT.

[HockeyTx82]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 092211
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
411 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAS ENDED WEST OF A SHERMAN...CORSICANA
LINE AS THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. AN
ADDITIONAL 1/2 INCH TO INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM FOR
PATCHY/AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS
EVENING AS THE SNOW EXITS. AN ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND WE WILL SEE COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS INDICATES THAT A
WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HAVE NOT
INDICATED ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATHER. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE PLACED A CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.
THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS QUITE DIFFERENT INDICATING A CHANCE OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY

[SouthernMet]

Im going to bed now so i can keep the rest of you updated overnight. Stay tuned... Be careful out there.

[Brandon8181]

Pictures of deep snow from Grayson County

http://img211.imageshack.us/i/snowfootprint.jpg/

http://img843.imageshack.us/i/snowmeasure.jpg/

[iorange55]

Wow that is nothing like we got here. The grassy wasn't even fully covered here. Nice pictures.


So now it's back to model watching. Still have the rest of January and some of Feburary before our chances start going way down. Hopefully there isn't too much ice overnight


Also didn't notice it but the GFS 18z came in a lot colder for late next weekend into that coming week. Interesting.

[funster]

LOL. Feather. Winter Feather Alert.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM FOR
PATCHY/AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS
EVENING AS THE SNOW EXITS. AN ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND WE WILL SEE COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS INDICATES THAT A
WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HAVE NOT
INDICATED ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATHER. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE PLACED A CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.
THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS QUITE DIFFERENT INDICATING A CHANCE OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY

[Ntxw]

Wow that is nothing like we got here. The grassy wasn't even fully covered here. Nice pictures.


So now it's back to model watching. Still have the rest of January and some of Feburary before our chances start going way down. Hopefully there isn't too much ice overnight


Also didn't notice it but the GFS 18z came in a lot colder for late next weekend into that coming week. Interesting.

My confidence on the GFS took a big hit the past few days. I know it was a difficult storm to forecast but ever since early winter with a good call on no snow, that model has kind of went down hill...it did well predicting this storm beyond 200 hours though.

[Portastorm]

All hail King Euro!!

[txagwxman]

Yea Euro rocked again.

[iorange55]

Thats a good thing then. Since the EURO is the one showing some winter weather for us.

[Ntxw]

I'd like to point out, for all of the big snowstorms in north Texas the past two years, all of them the Canadian was the lone consistent 3+ days worth of runs. right up to the event.

[HockeyTx82]

I'd like to point out, for all of the big snowstorms in north Texas the past two years, all of them the Canadian was the lone consistent 3+ days worth of runs. right up to the event.

Well those Canadians do know a thing or two about cold and snow...............