ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 08/2256 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F CENTRE [1000HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 18.0S 172.0E
AT 082100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.
CONVECTION AND ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN THE LAST 12
HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRESENT IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHEAST TO EAST OF CENTRE. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVING IT
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
