Forecast 2/Graphics now available

[Derek Ortt]

for the forecast http://www.nwhhc.com/atlantic9fd.html

graphics http://www.nwhhc.com/images/atl9track.jpg
http://www.nwhhc.com/images/atl9intensity.jpg

[Steve H.]

Think this track is a bit too far west IMO. But this will be hard to pin down after 72 hours. I expect it to be just about 50 miles further north of Cuba, not riding the spine as depicted here; but its too early too really pin it down, as the overall pattern shows uncertainty by Sunday. Still expect a ridge to the north near the Carolina coast, but this may be a bit slower to evolve. This may allow the cyclone to exploit the weakness a bit more. This should end up in the GOM, but how it gets there is the question. So I go along with the NHC forecasr track, but not as sharp a turn to the west due to the slower development of the ridge to the north. Good forecast though, as beyond 72 hours a number of scenarios could happen. Don't think the interaction will be as long lived as stated. BUT, if it rides 300+ degrees, it could get over the mountains, which will be a diffferent story altogether, and could dissipate the systm. I'm not expecting that to happen, and if it crosses the SW portion of Haiti heading NW, I see the land interaction having little impact other than not allowing it to strengthen during that period.

[Derek Ortt]

I have found that the best forecast after 72 is simply go with the trends and use a probabilistic approach to ensure low errors