Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Ntxw]

Wxman's warm January continues to be in Jeopardy at least possibly the later half anyway!

[Tejas89]

Plano seldom closes. They are just to big and the schedules are already staggered, so a delay does them no good. Allen has a fraction of the schools Plano has and I saw first hand what the result of their delay was. Almost an hour to get my kid to high school. She only goes a half day (senior with a short day) Ugh!!!

Growing up in Plano, I'm all too familiar with their closure policy. And still quite bitter about all the snow days I missed out on, whilst sitting in a classroom. We always blamed all the yankees that had moved in.

If anyone here listens to the Ticket radio station in Dallas, you may have heard the story about the morning hosts closing down UNT back in the 80's after a dusting of snow.. since they got their hands on the weather password for that event. Classic.

[iorange55]

Since I got sorta screwed in this event I have the itch for more winter weather. Hopefully we get some more.

Feels nice outside.

[srainhoutx]

Ya never know...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
204 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011

VALID 12Z THU JAN 13 2011 - 12Z MON JAN 17 2011

...12Z MODEL CYCLE UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MORNING PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH
A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE AT DAY 7 WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS WAS IN RESPONSE TO THE TREND NOTED IN THE 12Z GEFS
MEAN/CMC. IN ADDITION...FROM PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE...THE SOUTHWARD
PENETRATION OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR ALWAYS SEEMS TO BE
UNDERESTIMATED BY MODEL GUIDANCE. SO ADJUSTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
ACCORDINGLY APPEARED THE WAY TO GO.

WITH THE CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY...THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD A FLATTER SOLUTION
ALOFT WHICH LEADS TO LESS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. HOWEVER...BEFORE
THIS OCCURS...THE GFS DEPICTED A SFC LOW WHICH WAS SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER WHILE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS IDEA WAS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z ECMWF. HOWEVER...NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PRODUCTS WERE MADE GIVEN THE LARGE SCATTER IN THE INTENSITY
FORECASTS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF DURING THEIR LAST SEVERAL RUNS.

ONE OTHER NOTE TO MAKE IS THE FACT THE 12Z GEFS MEAN HAS PULLED
EVEN FURTHER TO THE EAST AT DAY 7 WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS HAS THE EFFECT OF INCREASING THE SPREAD BETWEEN THAT
AND THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. AT THIS TIME...THE ORIGINAL
FORECAST BLEND WILL BE MAINTAINED.

[HockeyTx82]

Kudos to the NWS in Ft. Worth. They nailed this storm system down. The advisories and warnings were exact and they called it perfect.

[Portastorm]

Speaking of Fort Worth ... they've given some legs to my hopes for a mid-week surprise. WacoWx, take note!

(snippet from the afternoon AFD)

THINGS MAY GET CLOSE TO BEING INTERESTING THURSDAY
MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN UP NICELY ABOVE 800 MB AND WOULDNT BE
SURPRISED IF SNOW WERE TO FALL FROM 7-9KFT CLOUD BASES.
HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY BELOW THESE CLOUD
BASES AND MUCH OF ANYTHING THAT WOULD FALL WOULD SUBLIMATE IN THE
DRY AIR. DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION...
FLURRIES COULD HAPPEN ACROSS OUR THE SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY
THURSDAY. WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING YET...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[WacoWx]

This will NEVER happen. No way. uh-uh. Zero chance.



(knocking on wood, crossing fingers, throwning salt over shoulder, etc. etc.)

[citymgr]

Since Austin weather is more accurate in Weimar than others (Houston), do you foresee temps dropping on the 19th as shown last week? I monitor this site to prepare my water and electric system for weather events.

[Portastorm]

Since Austin weather is more accurate in Weimar than others (Houston), do you foresee temps dropping on the 19th as shown last week? I monitor this site to prepare my water and electric system for weather events.

Welcome to Storm 2K and thanks for posting!

You may get a number of opinions from us amateurs on your question and you're probably better served having our pro mets chime in. That being said, I will say that the European computer model is more bullish on a resumption of colder air (after a brief moderation this weekend) by the 19th than the GFS (American model). And the European has been doing better than the GFS in terms of forecasting five days, six days out.

[iorange55]

I wonder why it's still snowing.

[Portastorm]

No love from my homies in New Braunfels with this snippet from their afternoon AFD:

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE TEMPS (DISCUSSED ABOVE) AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY MIXED PRECIP. WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONLY A THIN LAYER
FROM MAYBE 800-700 MB IS NEAR SATURATION...WITH VERY DRY AIR BELOW
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ABOVE 700 MB. OUR THINKING IS ANY PRECIP
WOULD EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. THUS...WHILE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES OR SLEET MIGHT BE SEEN ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 290
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM THURSDAY...THE CHANCES ARE LOW...THERE
WILL BE NO ACCUMULATION...AND THUS WE ANTICIPATE NO THREAT TO
TRANSPORTATION (SORRY KIDS).

[srainhoutx]

No love from my homies in New Braunfels with this snippet from their afternoon AFD:

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE TEMPS (DISCUSSED ABOVE) AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY MIXED PRECIP. WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONLY A THIN LAYER
FROM MAYBE 800-700 MB IS NEAR SATURATION...WITH VERY DRY AIR BELOW
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ABOVE 700 MB. OUR THINKING IS ANY PRECIP
WOULD EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. THUS...WHILE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES OR SLEET MIGHT BE SEEN ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 290
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM THURSDAY...THE CHANCES ARE LOW...THERE
WILL BE NO ACCUMULATION...AND THUS WE ANTICIPATE NO THREAT TO
TRANSPORTATION (SORRY Portastorm).

Fixed that for you.

[Portastorm]

<Portastorm laughing so hard he can barely type>

[Parker_County1]

We had fog and freezing drizzle all morning. Then that stopped around noon. Now it is snowing lightly here in Weatherford.

[Tireman4]

No love from my homies in New Braunfels with this snippet from their afternoon AFD:

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE TEMPS (DISCUSSED ABOVE) AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY MIXED PRECIP. WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONLY A THIN LAYER
FROM MAYBE 800-700 MB IS NEAR SATURATION...WITH VERY DRY AIR BELOW
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ABOVE 700 MB. OUR THINKING IS ANY PRECIP
WOULD EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. THUS...WHILE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES OR SLEET MIGHT BE SEEN ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 290
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM THURSDAY...THE CHANCES ARE LOW...THERE
WILL BE NO ACCUMULATION...AND THUS WE ANTICIPATE NO THREAT TO
TRANSPORTATION (SORRY Portastorm).

Fixed that for you.

Wow they know you by name...wow.....

[Turtle]

Some accumulations near my area.

ASHDOWN AR.........8 INCHES
DIERKS AR..........7 INCHES
NASHVILLE AR.......7 INCHES
NEW BOSTON TX......7 INCHES
BATTIEST OK........6 INCHES
CLARKSVILLE TX.....6 INCHES
IDABEL OK..........6 INCHES
HOPE AR............6 INCHES
6 N LEWISVILLE AR..6 INCHES
TECARKANA AR.......6 INCHES
DEQUEEN AR.........5 INCHES
MINEOLA TX.........5 INCHES
MOUNT PLEASANT TX..5 INCHES
TOLETTE AR.........5 INCHES
ATLANTA TX.........4 INCHES
DAINGERFIELD TX....4 INCHES
JEFFERSON TX.......4 INCHES
LEWISVILLE AR......4 INCHES
MOUNT VERNON TX....4 INCHES
CARTHAGE TX........3 INCHES
GILMER TX..........3 INCHES
LONGVIEW TX........3 INCHES
MARSHALL TX........3 INCHES <--- I live a few miles east and got 1-1.5"
PITTSBURG TX.......3 INCHES
TYLER TX...........3 INCHES
HENDERSON TX.......2 INCHES
MAGNOLIA AR........2 INCHES
BENTON LA..........1 INCH
BOSSIER CITY LA....1 INCH
JACKSONVILLE TX....1 INCH
SHREVEPORT LA......1 INCH
SPRINGHILL LA......1 INCH
RUSK TX............LESS THAN 1/2 INCH

[txagwxman]

GFS at 72 hours, nice little short-wave, but no precip with it (only virga). However, I have seen these before, and typically there may be enough moisture for a few flakes.

UKMET lower looks more promising...yes that is an inch of snow in the Hill Country. GEM also has precip (very light).

Why doesn't the NWS use the UKMET...I have no clue...it is on par with the ECMWF sometimes.

[SouthernMet]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Patchy Freezing precip north of Graham atm. And a nice light precip band setting up in Abilene.
As of 6pm the arctic cold front was marching southeast from Lubbock to Vernon to Oklahoma City line. Where observations are in the mid 20's.

[Texas Snowman]

Cold, subfreezing, cloudy day with a few snow flurries here in Grayson County.

Amazed that so little of the snow melted off. Main roads are basically clear, but still plenty of water and even some slush in places. Snow even stayed "glued" to the hardwood and evergreen trees.

Ahhh, I LOVE winter weather!

[cycloneye]

SouthernMet,I add to your post the Storm2k Disclaimer that is needed in a case like the post that you did.