SPAC: VANIA (03F/05P) - Tropical Cyclone

[senorpepr]

WTPS01 NFFN 121800 CCA
STORM WARNING 022 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 12/2015 UTC 2011 UTC.

CORRECTION TO CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STORM WINDS RADIUS...
TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA CENTRE 977HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2
SOUTH 168.8 EAST AT 121800 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 19.2S 168.8E AT 121800 UTC.
CYCLONE SLOW MOVING BUT EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AT 04 KNOTS.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
60 KNOTS BY 130600 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTORS FROM
NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 19.9S 168.0E AT 130600 UTC
AND NEAR 20.5S 167.3E AT 131800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICALS MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO
SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 020.

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible - NRL: 60 knots

[KWT]

Yeah it does have quite a borad inner core, but on the other hand its clearly wrapping up quite well at the moment so steady strengthening looks probable.

[GCANE]

Looks like an overshooting top very close to the COC.

[GCANE]

Core getting hotter but a boundary layer inversion at the LLC.

Would explain fragmented deep convection over the LLC or no solid eyewall development.

I wonder if diabatic heating of the CDO by the sun could help break this by heating the UL and creating enough lift to break the inversion.

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

12/2032 UTC 19.6S 168.3E T4.0/4.0 VANIA -- Southwest Pacific

65 knots

[Crostorm]

Cyclone causes minor damage in Vanuatu
http://www.rnzi.com/pages/news.php?op=read&id=58141

[HURAKAN]

latest

[RobWESTPACWX]

Does anyone have a link to the French WX service out of New Caledonia? I can not find it at all.

[KWT]

Its trying to wrap but that inner core doesn't look all that strong right now, your not going to get much above 65-70kts till that presentation changes.

[Crostorm]

Does anyone have a link to the French WX service out of New Caledonia? I can not find it at all.

this page
http://www.meteo.nc/cyclones/cycl_der.php

[RobWESTPACWX]

Thanks Crostorm!

Anyhow, here are my thoughts for today on this storm, I made sure to give you guys a shout out near the end of this..

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHbCdrMr-0I[/youtube]

[Grifforzer]

55 knots

** WTPS11 NFFN 130000 ***
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 13/0213 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA 03F CENTRE 977HPA CAT 2 WAS ANALYSED NEAR
19.8S 167.9E AT 130000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR/EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS
CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS IN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. PRIMARY BAND
WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. DEEP CONVECTION ALONG MAIN BAND WARMING
PAST 6 HOURS DUE DIURNAL INFLUENCE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH, EAST AND
SOUTH BUT DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. CYCLONE LIES UNDER A 250HPA DIFFLUENT
REGION WITH LOW SHEAR. CIMSS INDICATES DECREASING SHEAR ALONG
FORECAST TRACK. SST AROUND 29C. SYSTEM CURRENTLY STEERED BY A WEAK
NORTHERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN REGIME. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON 1.1 LOG
10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=4.0 MET=4.0, PT=4.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS EVENTUALLY MOVE THE CYCLONE
SOUTHWEST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS:
AT 12HRS VALID 131200Z 20.6S 167.3E MOV SSW 05KT WITH 65KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE.
AT 24HRS VALID 140000Z 21.4S 166.9E MOV SW 05KT WITH 65KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36HRS VALID 141200Z 22.5S 166.9E MOV S 08KT WITH 70KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID 150000Z 24.1S 167.2E MOV S 10KT WITH 70KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD03F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
130830 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 19.6S 168.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 168.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.4S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.3S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.3S 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 23.5S 167.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 26.4S 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 30.4S 169.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 34.8S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 168.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (VANIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM NE
OF NOUMEA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 121717Z 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS FROM KNES,
PGTW, AND PHFO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH OF TC 05P, WHILE OUTFLOW TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST CONTINUES
TO BE ENHANCED AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BOTH OF THESE OUTFLOW
ENHANCING FEATURES HAVE ENABLED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP MORE RAPIDLY
THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. TC 05P IS SLOWLY TRACKING IN A GENERALLY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN DIRECTION WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND AN
EXTENSION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC VANIA IS
FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE
VERY EASTERN TIP OF NEW CALEDONIA IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY SPEED UP AND
RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 05P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ET) BY TAU 72 AND WILL COMPLETE ET AS A STRONG STORM
FORCE LOW BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT, TO INCLUDE GFDN, WHICH HAS STEADILY SHIFTED TO THE EAST.
THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY EAST AND FASTER THEN CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS MODEL ERROR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS
17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Northern part of the core has fallen to bits, its very lopsided which is never a great presentation for strengthening, probably holding at 55-60kts.

[GCANE]

Northern part of the core has fallen to bits, its very lopsided which is never a great presentation for strengthening, probably holding at 55-60kts.

Looks like the pesky inversion has dissipated but the anti-cyclone has moved to the north.

It will be tracking away from the anti-cyclone into falling tropopause heights.

This will compress the PV core and make it tend to spin slower.

But, with the inversion broken, IMHO it could flare around sunrise at DMAX.

So all in all, looks like it may hold at current strength +/- 10 knots in the next 12 hrs or so.

RMW has increased dramatically to 300km.