SPAC: VANIA (03F/05P) - Tropical Cyclone

[Crostorm]

[GCANE]

[RobWESTPACWX]

Really looking like Noumea is going to dodge the bullet on this one... any how my video for this evening if you guys care or if you have any thoughts on it.... looking at stuff down south always gives me a headache.


[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFWzUXI3CgY[/youtube]

[RobWESTPACWX]

O and is anyone else having issues getting on JTWC?

[GCANE]

O and is anyone else having issues getting on JTWC?

Rob:

Yes, I can't get on JTWC either.

[GCANE]

TRMM showed some borderline hot-towers firing yesterday, mostly on the outer band.

Nothing close to the LLC due to the inversion.

[GCANE]

Really looking like Noumea is going to dodge the bullet on this one... any how my video for this evening if you guys care or if you have any thoughts on it.... looking at stuff down south always gives me a headache.

Another great video - thanks Rob.

[P.K.]

Vania is now up to cat 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone.

WHPS01 NFFN 131200
HURRICANE WARNING 028 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 13/1319 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA CENTRE 970HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6 SOUTH
167.7 EAST AT 131200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 20.6S 167.7E AT 131200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 04 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTORS

FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.3S 167.2E AT 140000 UTC
AND NEAR 22.4S 167.1E AT 141200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 026.

[GCANE]

Nice looking hot-tower firing close to the COC about 2.5 hrs ago.

[HURAKAN]

Latest image

[HURAKAN]

Latest wind info

[GCANE]

A coincidence that a lot of large quakes are happening just about under Vania.

A Mw 7.0 within the last 2 hrs could have generated a small tsunami as indicated by a closeby DART.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ ... 20_eqs.php

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... 0113162515

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/dart.shtml

[Cookie]

what effect would this have if any?!

[GCANE]

what effect would this have if any?!

Most likely there will be some sort of damage from the quake on nearby islands; especially if there was a localized tsunami.

I am not sure if that fault is a subduction or strike-slip.

It maybe a while before news reports come in.

[Cookie]

what effect would this have if any?!

Most likely there will be some sort of damage from the quake on nearby islands; especially if there was a localized tsunami.

I am not sure if that fault is a subduction or strike-slip.

It maybe a while before news reports come in.

I meant to say on this system, sorry

[GCANE]

what effect would this have if any?!

Most likely there will be some sort of damage from the quake on nearby islands; especially if there was a localized tsunami.

I am not sure if that fault is a subduction or strike-slip.

It maybe a while before news reports come in.

I meant to say on this system, sorry

Should not affect the TC at all.

[GCANE]

Sorry if this is OT, but FYI this is a subduction fault.

So, a good chance large quakes on this fault could trigger a tsunami

http://www.red-eft.net/placepages/vanuatu.htm

[GCANE]

Looks like a little flare-up is starting up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

[GCANE]

Raw T#3.9

Nothing like a hot-tower and a good quake.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 130732.jpg

[Grifforzer]

Back to Category 2

WTPS11 NFFN 131800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 13/2026 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA 03F CENTRE 978HPA CAT 2 WAS ANALYSED NEAR
21.1S 167.7E AT 131800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT IR/EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 04 KNOTS. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS
CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS
WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 210
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO
SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 150 MILES ELSEWHERE.
OVERALL ORGANISATION DECREASED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW
GOOD TO EAST AND SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONE LIES UNDER A
250HPA DIFFLUENT REGION WITH MODERATE SHEAR. CIMSS INDICATES
INCREASING SHEAR ALONG FORECAST TRACK. SST AROUND 29C. SYSTEM
CURRENTLY STEERED BY A WEAK NORTHERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN REGIME. DVORAK
ASSESSMENT BASED ON 0.9 WRAP YIELDING DT=3.5 MET= 3.5 PT=3.5. FT
BASED ON DT, THUS T3.5/3.5/S0.0/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS EVENTUALLY
MOVE THE CYCLONE SOUTH.

FORECASTS:
AT 12HRS VALID 140600Z 22.0S 167.6E MOV SSE 05KT WITH 50KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE.
AT 24HRS VALID 141800Z 23.5S 168.0E MOV SSE 07KT WITH 50KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
AT 36HRS VALID 150600Z 25.5S 168.1E MOV S 10KT WITH 40KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID 151800Z 27.7S 167.9E MOV S 10KT WITH 35KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD03F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
140230 UTC.