Texas Winter 2010-2011

[WacoWx]

See yall THATS what I'm talkin about^^^ Optimism, how does it work

[wxman57]

Actually, the GFS was consistently forecasting an extended period of well below normal temps in Texas (Houston) this past week from early the week before the event, as is evident by these meteograms I saved. In fact, the models were often colder than we actually saw this past week.:







Current indications are that we will not see such a significant surge of Arctic air into Texas next week. That doesn't mean winter is over, as some of our worst ice storms have occurred in February. And it doesn't even mean no chance of winter precip in north TX and OK next week. That's possible with a shallow layer of sub-freezing air and a passing disturbance.

[srainhoutx]

The source region is mighty chilly. I wouldn't discount a shallow Arctic Air Mass slipping S into TX just yet.

[Portastorm]

Well ... you know what? ... I can certainly admit when I'm wrong. I am wrong! The GFS did show this. Kudos to Wxman57 for saving the data. I just didn't recall any model showing this consistent and strong below-normal temp trend for five days straight. Obviously the GFS did.

I still stand by my thoughts for next week and to some extent, Wxman57 concurs (as evidenced by his suggestion of a North Texas/OK ice storm). Amateur thoughts, yes. And I seldom make "forecasts" or predictions and maybe this is why.

[wxman57]

Right, Portastorm, even though we may not see extreme cold across Texas next week, the pattern is one that could result in problems with ice. Just a possibility for now, not my forecast.

[Ntxw]

Well, the late week warm up has finally happened! DFW gets into the 40s today alas! Last night's euro does show some sort of overrunning precip before the arrival of an baja low. Look at all that ridging out west! If that doesn't have wintry weather over Texas written all over it, I don't know what does. That is definitely an El Nino Pacific!

[wall_cloud]

I'll throw in my quick 2 cents before starting on the forecast for today. A quick glance at the 00z ECMWF and 06z GFS makes me want to puke. I strongly favor the overall pattern of the ECMWF by midweek (maybe not as wet) but I don't see why we won't see another quick blast of cold air by Thursday. Currently, western Canada has temps of -30F to -40F with surface pressures as highs as 1052 mb. We are seeing a good cross polar flow setting up through the weekend which should help to reinforce/intensify the cold temps. Sure, this cold air could be shunted to our east but I'm thinking we'll get at least a 1 day shot. Stay tuned...

[srainhoutx]

I'll throw in my quick 2 cents before starting on the forecast for today. A quick glance at the 00z ECMWF and 06z GFS makes me want to puke. I strongly favor the overall pattern of the ECMWF by midweek (maybe not as wet) but I don't see why we won't see another quick blast of cold air by Thursday. Currently, western Canada has temps of -30F to -40F with surface pressures as highs as 1052 mb. We are seeing a good cross polar flow setting up through the weekend which should help to reinforce/intensify the cold temps. Sure, this cold air could be shunted to our east but I'm thinking we'll get at least a 1 day shot. Stay tuned...

Good luck with that forecast wall_cloud! HPC paints an interesting scenario via telecommunications and the lack there of regarding any true model agreement. Interesting days ahead folks, as Portastorm so eloquently spelled out this morning.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
906 AM EST FRI JAN 14 2011

VALID 12Z TUE JAN 18 2011 - 12Z FRI JAN 21 2011

...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW QUITE AN INTERESTING FLOW PATTERN
OVER NOAM OVER THE NEXT WEEK...

GUIDANCE IN A LARGER SENSE AGREES THAT A COOLING/UNSETTLING AND
AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STEADILY PROGRESS FROM THE
EAST-CENTRAL US TO WRN ATLANTIC TUE-THU. IN THIS FLOW EMBEDDED
SYSTEM AND STREAM PHASING ISSUES THOUGH INTRODUCE INCREASED
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AT LOWER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW
DEVELOPMENTS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOCUS. SOME OF THIS UNCERTAINTY
SEEMS RELATED TO THE LOW LEVEL RESPONSE TO HOW POTENT LEAD
ENERGIES DIGGING OUT FROM THE WRN US INTO THE BASE OF THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH VERIFIES ACROSS THE US SRN TIER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHEN THE 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE 00 UTC GFS/CANADIAN AND
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. OVERNIGHT HPC SHORT RANGE PREFERENCE AS
PER THE PMDHMD FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION ALOFT STILL SEEMS
REASONABLE CONSIDERING LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND AT LOWER
LEVELS THE 06 UTC GFS DOES NOW SUPPORT A MORE DEFINED SURFACE
WAVE. THIS IN TURN HELPS LEAD TO HPC PROGS WITH CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
MID-ATLANTIC THEN NEW ENG COASTAL CYCLOGENSIS TUE/WED...ALBEIT
WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY CONSIDERING FORECAST SPREAD RECENTLY.

UPSTREAM...THE 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET ALSO OFFER HIGHER STRENGTH
POTENTIAL THAN THE 00/06 UTC GFS AND CANADIAN FOR POTENTIAL
ADVANCE OF RE-EMERGING A NRN STREAM TROUGH ENERGY DIG ALOFT INTO
THE NORTH-CENTRAL MIDWEEK AND ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL NRN TIER
INTO THU/FRI THAT WOULD FAVOR QUITE AN ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL SURGE
OF ACRTIC AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST-CENTRAL US DURING THAT TIME.
THE ECMWF/UKMET AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO
MEANWHILE DEPCIT MUCH SHARPER DIGGING OF TROUGH ENERGIES FARTHER
BACK DOWN THROUGH THE US WEST COAST...LEADING TO CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPMENT CENTERED NEAR SRN CA BY DAYS 5-7 WED-FRI COMPARED TO
MUCH BROADER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE
ACROSS THE W-CENTRAKL STATES IN RECENT GFS/CANADIAN MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE RUNS. IN THESE CASES...DEEPLY AMPLIFIED LOW/TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT CENTERED ACROSS THE NW PACIFIC ANCHORING NEXT WEEK
SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO FAVOR DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLITUDE ON THE
HIGHER END OF THE FULL ENVELOPE OF SOLUTION ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC.
THIS SHOULD THEN LEAD TO A INCREASED OPPORTUNITY FOR AT LEAST
REASONABLY VIGOROUS DOWNSTREAM DIGGING/AMPLITUDE INTO THE WRN AND
N-CENTRAL US. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING AMPLE FORECAST SPREAD WITHIN
ALL GUIDANCE PREFER AN HPC SOLUTION BLENDING 50-50 THE QUITE
AMPLIFIED 00 UTC ECMWF WITH A SOMEWHAT LESS ROBUST 00 UTC ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN.

SCHICHTEL

[DentonGal]

I'll throw in my quick 2 cents before starting on the forecast for today. A quick glance at the 00z ECMWF and 06z GFS makes me want to puke. I strongly favor the overall pattern of the ECMWF by midweek (maybe not as wet) but I don't see why we won't see another quick blast of cold air by Thursday. Currently, western Canada has temps of -30F to -40F with surface pressures as highs as 1052 mb. We are seeing a good cross polar flow setting up through the weekend which should help to reinforce/intensify the cold temps. Sure, this cold air could be shunted to our east but I'm thinking we'll get at least a 1 day shot. Stay tuned...

Good luck with that forecast wall_cloud! HPC paints an interesting scenario via telecommunications and the lack there of regarding any true model agreement. Interesting days ahead folks, as Portastorm so eloquently spelled out this morning.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
906 AM EST FRI JAN 14 2011

VALID 12Z TUE JAN 18 2011 - 12Z FRI JAN 21 2011

...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW QUITE AN INTERESTING FLOW PATTERN
OVER NOAM OVER THE NEXT WEEK...

GUIDANCE IN A LARGER SENSE AGREES THAT A COOLING/UNSETTLING AND
AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STEADILY PROGRESS FROM THE
EAST-CENTRAL US TO WRN ATLANTIC TUE-THU. IN THIS FLOW EMBEDDED
SYSTEM AND STREAM PHASING ISSUES THOUGH INTRODUCE INCREASED
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AT LOWER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW
DEVELOPMENTS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOCUS. SOME OF THIS UNCERTAINTY
SEEMS RELATED TO THE LOW LEVEL RESPONSE TO HOW POTENT LEAD
ENERGIES DIGGING OUT FROM THE WRN US INTO THE BASE OF THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH VERIFIES ACROSS THE US SRN TIER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHEN THE 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE 00 UTC GFS/CANADIAN AND
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. OVERNIGHT HPC SHORT RANGE PREFERENCE AS
PER THE PMDHMD FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION ALOFT STILL SEEMS
REASONABLE CONSIDERING LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND AT LOWER
LEVELS THE 06 UTC GFS DOES NOW SUPPORT A MORE DEFINED SURFACE
WAVE. THIS IN TURN HELPS LEAD TO HPC PROGS WITH CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
MID-ATLANTIC THEN NEW ENG COASTAL CYCLOGENSIS TUE/WED...ALBEIT
WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY CONSIDERING FORECAST SPREAD RECENTLY.

UPSTREAM...THE 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET ALSO OFFER HIGHER STRENGTH
POTENTIAL THAN THE 00/06 UTC GFS AND CANADIAN FOR POTENTIAL
ADVANCE OF RE-EMERGING A NRN STREAM TROUGH ENERGY DIG ALOFT INTO
THE NORTH-CENTRAL MIDWEEK AND ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL NRN TIER
INTO THU/FRI THAT WOULD FAVOR QUITE AN ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL SURGE
OF ACRTIC AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST-CENTRAL US DURING THAT TIME.
THE ECMWF/UKMET AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO
MEANWHILE DEPCIT MUCH SHARPER DIGGING OF TROUGH ENERGIES FARTHER
BACK DOWN THROUGH THE US WEST COAST...LEADING TO CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPMENT CENTERED NEAR SRN CA BY DAYS 5-7 WED-FRI COMPARED TO
MUCH BROADER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE
ACROSS THE W-CENTRAKL STATES IN RECENT GFS/CANADIAN MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE RUNS. IN THESE CASES...DEEPLY AMPLIFIED LOW/TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT CENTERED ACROSS THE NW PACIFIC ANCHORING NEXT WEEK
SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO FAVOR DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLITUDE ON THE
HIGHER END OF THE FULL ENVELOPE OF SOLUTION ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC.
THIS SHOULD THEN LEAD TO A INCREASED OPPORTUNITY FOR AT LEAST
REASONABLY VIGOROUS DOWNSTREAM DIGGING/AMPLITUDE INTO THE WRN AND
N-CENTRAL US. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING AMPLE FORECAST SPREAD WITHIN
ALL GUIDANCE PREFER AN HPC SOLUTION BLENDING 50-50 THE QUITE
AMPLIFIED 00 UTC ECMWF WITH A SOMEWHAT LESS ROBUST 00 UTC ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN.

SCHICHTEL

Wow, Srain, all that sounds interesting....if I fully understood it! Could you possibly put it in a Reader's Digest Condensed Version for me? TIA!

[srainhoutx]

Cliff Notes version... A very challenging forecast ahead and expect a surprise or two...

Edit to add: the 12Z GFS flipped again suggesting cold air will be back next week.

[Ntxw]

JB is giving in to the MJO and stratosphere this morning. First time I've seen him admit wrong and change his winter forecast. There goes the warm La Nada for many who were getting excited for it . Wxman may see his shadow later this winter!

[srainhoutx]

JB is giving in to the MJO and stratosphere this morning. First time I've seen him admit wrong and change his winter forecast. There goes the warm La Nada for many who were getting excited for it . Wxman may see his shadow later this winter!

And folks thought some of us were joking about a disturbed stratosphere. If you look back that record breaking Upper Ridge of last week popped up right the first wave of this SSW (Sudden Startospheric Warming) event began to unfold. As of yesterday there was yet another major wave with another to follow. Add to the mix our MJO pulse in phase 7 moving toward phase 8. The 12Z Canadian (GEM) agrees with a Thursday front as well now. That model also suggests a cutoff low at hour 144 to our W.

[wxman22]

Yea I just saw the video JB posted on how he may have to change his winter forecast what a La Nada... It looks like maybe the old fashion farmers almanac winter forecast may have been right after all...

[Metalicwx220]

Yea I just saw the video JB posted on how he may have to change his winter forecast what a La Nada... It looks like maybe the old fashion farmers almanac winter forecast may have been right after all...

They also said mid to late January would be the clodest and snowiest period.

[Ntxw]

Yea I just saw the video JB posted on how he may have to change his winter forecast what a La Nada... It looks like maybe the old fashion farmers almanac winter forecast may have been right after all...

Pretty scary how they were pretty much dead on back then lol. I honestly thought they were nuts...I thought the NW would be cold and snowy, which they've had cold snaps but not the kind you would think for this kind of winter. The southeast...need I say more?

[Texas Snowman]

JB is giving in to the MJO and stratosphere this morning. First time I've seen him admit wrong and change his winter forecast. There goes the warm La Nada for many who were getting excited for it . Wxman may see his shadow later this winter!

If we can get some more of this to materialize (heck, it's just now gotten into the upper 30s here in Grayson County for the first time since very early last Sunday morning), this could be a "memorable" winter like last year was.

Got to go back to the late 70s to find back-to-back winters that were "memorable" (multiple snow, ice, and/or cold events).

[Metalicwx220]

It snowed in Seattle in late November which is sort of rare I guess.

[Ntxw]

12z euro (as srain has been drumming) continues the train of thought via cold front then emerging southwest storm this coming week. I like this idea especially with a ridge popping up into NE Pacific. The GFS is whack not showing a decent SW system as this kind of amplifying almost always has a storm digging out west.

[gboudx]

Yea I just saw the video JB posted on how he may have to change his winter forecast what a La Nada... It looks like maybe the old fashion farmers almanac winter forecast may have been right after all...

Pretty scary how they were pretty much dead on back then lol. I honestly thought they were nuts...I thought the NW would be cold and snowy, which they've had cold snaps but not the kind you would think for this kind of winter. The southeast...need I say more?

Accuweathers:

[srainhoutx]

Another possible winter weather event via the 12Z Euro @ hour 192.