Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Ntxw]

Another possible winter weather event via the 12Z Euro @ hour 192.

With yet another on it's heels! I wouldn't be surprised with that +PNA!

AO is now forecasted to plunge after the brief rise.

[txagwxman]

ECMWF suggest ice storm Austin / Waco / DFW next Friday (possibly mixed with sleet).

[orangeblood]

ECMWF suggest ice storm Austin / Waco / DFW next Friday (possibly mixed with sleet).

12Z ECMWF looks much more realistic than the past few runs, which had a cut-off low in the southwest US. You rarely ever see a southwest US cut-off low with a trough east of Hawaii.

The latest run looks like a classic Texas winter snow/ice storm breaking out from west Texas into central and north Texas late next week. Then another storm right on its heels. Very favorable pattern for winter weather depicted by the ECMWF coming up in the next 7-12 days.

[Mr. Weather]

any chance Houston could get anything form this one this time ? just curious

[txagwxman]

any chance Houston could get anything form this one this time ? just curious

NOPE...but never say never.

[Tireman4]

any chance Houston could get anything form this one this time ? just curious

NOPE...but never say never.

Meteorologist of the Year...Txagwxman...why cannot all the meterologists say..you never say never....

[txagwxman]

any chance Houston could get anything form this one this time ? just curious

NOPE...but never say never.

Meteorologist of the Year...Txagwxman...why can they all say..you never say never....

A little bit more cold advection and Houston is in the game.

[Tireman4]

[
Meteorologist of the Year...Txagwxman...why can they all say..you never say never....[/quote]

A little bit more cold advection and Houston is in the game.[/quote]


Well I said this to you and the other pro mets on KHOU weatherboard, we do thank you for your service to us. You do not have to impart your knowledge to us...but you do and we so appreciate it.

[benrayrog]

ECMWF suggest ice storm Austin / Waco / DFW next Friday (possibly mixed with sleet).

12Z ECMWF looks much more realistic than the past few runs, which had a cut-off low in the southwest US. You rarely ever see a southwest US cut-off low with a trough east of Hawaii.

The latest run looks like a classic Texas winter snow/ice storm breaking out from west Texas into central and north Texas late next week. Then another storm right on its heels. Very favorable pattern for winter weather depicted by the ECMWF coming up in the next 7-12 days.

Would this also likely affect the area 70 miles southeast of the metroplex and near Tyler?

[downsouthman1]

ECMWF suggest ice storm Austin / Waco / DFW next Friday (possibly mixed with sleet).

12Z ECMWF looks much more realistic than the past few runs, which had a cut-off low in the southwest US. You rarely ever see a southwest US cut-off low with a trough east of Hawaii.

The latest run looks like a classic Texas winter snow/ice storm breaking out from west Texas into central and north Texas late next week. Then another storm right on its heels. Very favorable pattern for winter weather depicted by the ECMWF coming up in the next 7-12 days.

Would this also likely affect the area 70 miles southeast of the metroplex and near Tyler?

All, I think we are too far from this event to start pinpointing locations. This is a continuation of what appears to have been a pattern change that is occurring, that began like 2 weeks ago. Prior to that, we were in a typical La Nina winter pattern. Not much precip; average temps. It's like the laws of physics. What's in motion has a tendency to stay in motion. In our case, we are gettnig colder & the longer it stays colder, the easier it is for it to stay cold. That being said, any storm systems passing overhead at the time have a higher likelihood of dropping winter precip. I have a hard time believing that last week was a one-off scenario. It appears it may have simply been the first car in the train.

[benrayrog]

Thanks. Will definitely stay tuned!

[srainhoutx]

As I said. Interesting days ahead...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
215 PM EST FRI JAN 14 2011

VALID 12Z MON JAN 17 2011 - 12Z FRI JAN 21 2011

...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW QUITE AN INTERESTING FLOW PATTERN
OVER NOAM OVER THE NEXT WEEK...

GUIDANCE IN A LARGER SENSE AGREES THAT A COOLING/UNSETTLING AND
AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STEADILY PROGRESS FROM THE
EAST-CENTRAL US TO WRN ATLANTIC TUE-THU. IN THIS FLOW EMBEDDED
SYSTEM AND STREAM PHASING ISSUES THOUGH INTRODUCE INCREASED
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AT LOWER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW
DEVELOPMENTS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOCUS. SOME OF THIS UNCERTAINTY
SEEMS RELATED TO THE LOW LEVEL RESPONSE TO HOW POTENT LEAD
ENERGIES DIGGING OUT FROM THE WRN US INTO THE BASE OF THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH VERIFIES ACROSS THE US SRN TIER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE 00 UTC GFS/CANADIAN AND
THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. A SOLUTION ALOFT ON THE MORE
AMPLIFIED PORTION OF THE FULL SOLUTION ENVELOPE PROVIDED BY
GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
AT LOWER LEVELS THE 06 UTC GFS DID SUPPORT A MORE DEFINED SURFACE
WAVE AND THE 12 UTC GFS HAS NOW TRENDED TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM. HPC PROGS MAINTAIN REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH A LOW
TRACK/CYCLOGENESIS OVER/OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC THEN NEW ENG
TUE/WED...ALBEIT WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY CONSIDERING RECENT
GUIDANCE SENSITIVITY INCLUDING THE 12 UTC ECMWF THAT IS NOW
SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED/DEVELOPED THIS SYSTEM.

UPSTREAM...THE 00/12 UTC ECMWF/UKMET OFFER A STRONGER SOLUTION
THAN THE 00/06/12 UTC GFS AND CANADIAN WITH RE-EMERGING NRN STREAM
TROUGH ENERGY ALOFT SLATED TO DIG INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL US
MIDWEEK AND ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL NRN TIER OF THE US INTO
THU/FRI THAT WOULD FAVOR QUITE AN ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL SURGE OF
BITTER COLD AIR INTO MUCH OF THE EAST-CENTRAL US AT THAT TIME.

ALSO...THE 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 00 UTC
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN MEANWHILE DEPCIT MUCH SHARPER DIGGING OF
TROUGH ENERGIES FARTHER BACK DOWN THROUGH THE US WEST COAST. THIS
LEADS TO CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF SRN CA
BY DAYS 5-7 WED-FRI COMPARED TO MUCH BROADER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL STATES IN
RECENT GFS/CANADIAN MODEL AND ENSEMBLE RUNS. THE 12 UTC GFS
THOUGH HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN PRIOR 00/06 UTC
RUNS BUT THE 12 UTC ECMWF/UKMET HAVE TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THEIR PRIOR RUNS...SEEMINGLY ALL WORKING SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO A MORE
CONCENSUS SOLUTION AT THIS POINT.

AS PER THESE TWO GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES HIGHLIGHTED JUST ABOVE...A
DEEPLY AMPLIFIED LOW/TROUGH ANCHORING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC
NEXT WEEK DOES HAVE QUITE A BIT OF JET ENERGY RUNNING UNDERNEATH
TO VARIOUS DEGREES. THIS NONETHELESS SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO FAVOR
MAINTAINING FOR A LONGER PERIOD A GREATER DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
AMPLITUDE ON THE HIGHER SPECTRUM OF THE FULL ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS
ACROSS THE NERN PACIFIC. THIS SHOULD THEN LEAD TO AN INCREASED
OPPORTUNITY FOR AT LEAST REASONABLY VIGOROUS DOWNSTREAM
DIGGING/AMPLITUDE WITH BOTH THE WRN US AND N-CENTRAL US SYSTEMS
MID-LATE NEXT WEEK. CONSIDERING THIS...BUT WITH STILL AMPLE
FORECAST SPREAD WITHIN ALL GUIDANCE...THE PRELIM HPC SOLUTION WAS
PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A NEAR EVEN BLEND OF THE QUITE AMPLIFIED 00
UTC ECMWF AND A SOMEWHAT LESS ROBUST 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.
FINAL HPC GUIDANCE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY STRENGTH OVER THE
N-CENTRAL US...BUT DID TREND TOWARD A SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE
CA/SW US SYSTEM AFTER CONSIDERATION OF LATEST 12 UTC MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE GUDIANCE.

SCHICHTEL

[Ntxw]

All, I think we are too far from this event to start pinpointing locations. This is a continuation of what appears to have been a pattern change that is occurring, that began like 2 weeks ago. Prior to that, we were in a typical La Nina winter pattern. Not much precip; average temps. It's like the laws of physics. What's in motion has a tendency to stay on motion. In our case, we are gettnig colder & the longer it stays colder, the easier it is for it to stay cold. That being said, any storm systems passing overhead at the time have a higher likelihood of dropping winter precip. I have a hard time believing that last week was a one-off scenario. It appears it may have simply been the first car in the train.

Very well said! You have Wxman57 (heat miser) fearing the worst of the cold, Txagwman doing a great job interpreting models for his insights, I think that's enough on our side for winter fun! We shouldn't pay attention to the surface features yet (where it snows/ice/rains) etc but rather look at the weather pattern around us (500mb is a great source). That's how really good mets predict winter weather well ahead of time!

[WacoWx]

OHHHHHHHHH my bold prediciton from pg 15 may be coming true? i wont bump it until we're in need of some good luck.

[Ntxw]

OHHHHHHHHH my bold prediciton from pg 15 may be coming true? i wont bump it until we're in need of some good luck.

I predict snow and ice for Austin/DFW next week. Mostly cloudy with patches of sun for Waco . Seriously, this may be your best chance yet this year!

[WacoWx]

I will take a good old fashioned ice storm...as long as it allows for me to miss work. I dont want the weekend ruined.

Maybe I should just knock on some wood.

[benrayrog]

Love me some winter weather, but not a big fan of ice storms! I remember a couple of bad ones we had here in Henderson County back in the 70s.

[somethingfunny]

I will take a good old fashioned ice storm...as long as it allows for me to miss work. I dont want the weekend ruined.

Maybe I should just knock on some wood.

Oh no you don't! I need my hours!

[Ntxw]

Oh no you don't! I need my hours!

There's a good chance next week will present a vigorous winter storm in Texas. Question is where and how much depth the cold air has. Right now judging from the frigid cold in NW Canada, the air mass looks shallow. Very vindictive to ICE. WacoWx may just get that wish.

[WacoWx]

Got the generator all gas'd up. Spam and batteries? Check. 4loko and confidence? check.