Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Macrocane]

The strongest wind gusts of this cold season have been experienced today, I will post this afternoon the maximum wind gusts registered. Here's a video I show one hour ago (9 am local time) that shows how windy it is:

http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/714/5qq.mp4

Cooler temperatures were registered this morning in Belize, Nicaragua and Panama in Guatemla, El Salvador, Honduras and Costa Rica they were pretty much the same readings than yesterday morning. These are the lows registered this morning:

Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 13.3°C (55.9°F)
Belize city, Belize 17°C (63°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 11.2°C (52.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 7.9°C (46.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 19°C (66°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.0°C (64.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.8°C (49.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.8°C (69.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 14.9°C (58.8°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.4°C (41.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.3°C (59.5°F)

[Gustywind]

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... h_guad.php

Time for the next few hours on Guadeloupe
Animated radar is updated every 15 mins, the satellite animation is updated hourly and forecast bulletin at least every 3 hours during the day.

Weather-France Guadeloupe, Hello!
12 H 45 level of vigilance is: green.
Currently, the time is pleasant and calm.
Within the next 3 hours, showers will remain rare and brief, or non-existent.
These observations and their immediate evolution will be updated about 15: 45.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 PM AST FRI JAN 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DIRER PATCH OF AIR BROUGHT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. EVEN SO...A
FEW SHOWERS WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE ISLAND...BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL BE QUICK LIVED AND COMPLETELY
DIMINISHED BY SUNSET.

CONTINUE TO EXPECT PATCHY MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW TO BRING
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH
NEXT BRIEF SURGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. OVERALL...HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY
OR WEATHER FEATURES TO SPEAK OF OVER NEXT SEVEN DAYS...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND ONLY
PATCHY MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO WORK
WITH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AND LOCAL FLYING
AREA DURG THE NEXT 24 HRS. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR OPERATIONAL
IMPACTS IS FCST AT THIS TIME. L/LVL WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE
EAST AT 10-20 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 72 83 / 30 30 20 30
STT 72 84 74 85 / 30 30 20 20

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain is 7pmET Thu-7pmET Fri) for
Fri Jan 14 2011

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 31.4C 88F trace
Maraval, NW Trinidad 30.4C 86F
Crown Point, Tobago 31.1C 88F
Point Salines, Grenada 29.3C 85F 0.8mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 29.8C 86F 0.7mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.7C 86F trace

Hewannora, St Lucia 29.4C 85F 0.8mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 30.0C 86F 0.8mm
LeLamentin, Martinique 30.1C 86F 0.6mm
VC Bird, Antigua 28.3C 83F
Golden Rock, St Kitts 28.2C 83F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 28.9C 84F

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 26.1C 79F
Kingston, Jamaica 30.4C 86F 3.0mm
Montego Bay, Jamaica 29.1C 85F 2.2mm
Havana, Cuba 23.6C 75F 0.2mm
Key West, Florida 20.0C 68F
Miami, FLorida 21.6C 71F
Nassau, Bahamas 21.5C 71F
Hamilton, Bermuda 16.5C 62F 0.5mm

Hato, Curacao 30.3C 86F 0.1mm
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 30.4C 86F
Flamingo, Bonaire 30.3C 86F

-justin-

[Macrocane]

STRONGEST WINDS OF THE 2010-2011 CENTRAL AMERICAN COLD SEASON

Good evening. It has been a very windy day today in Central America especially in Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador that felt the strongest winds so far this season, in the case of Guatemala and El Salvador the wind gusts today were the strongest since tropical storm Agatha. The maximum temperatures registered this afternoon are still pretty cool in the northernmost part of Central America especially in parts of El Salvador and Honduras, in San Salvador the high today was the coolest since December 27, in Las Pilas was the coolest since December 13 and in Tegucigalpa was the coldest so far this season. The observations:

Maximum Wind Gusts
Guatemala city, Guatemala 75 km/h (47 mph)
San Salvador, El Salvador 49 km/h (31 mph)
Ishuatan, El Salvador 71 km/h (44 mph)
La Esperanza, Honduras 56 km/h (35 mph)
Belize city, Belize 18 km/h (11 mph)
Esteli, Nicaragua 46 km/h (29 mph)
San Jose, Costa Rica 48 km/h (30 mph)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 63 km/h (39 mph)
Panama city, Panama 29 km/h (18 mph)
Boquete, Panama 47 km/h (29 mph)

Maximum Temperatures
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.2°C (66.6°F)
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 19.9°C (67.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.2°C (66.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 27°C (81°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 27.7°C (81.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.7°C (54.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.4°C (95.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 26.0°C (78.8°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.4°C (77.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 8.8°C (47.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.4°C (92.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.2°C (72.0°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1001 PM AST FRI JAN 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. SUBTROPICAL HIGH ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC WILL BUILD WWD
INTO THE ERN CARIB EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HOLD THRU THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANIMATION OF BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH PW VALUES JUST
OVER AN INCH WITH LOWER VALUES OF AROUND 0.75 INCHES FOUND UPSTREAM
OVR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AM VERY SKEPTICAL ABT THE MODELS OVR THE
NEXT 24-36 HRS WHICH SHOW PW VALUES RISING OVER 1.5 INCHES GIVEN
ALL THE DRY AIR UPSTREAM OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SO AM
DISCOUNTING THE MODELS ATTM. GIVEN LACK OF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER
AIR FEATURES TO HELP ENHANCE PRECIP XPCT MAINLY ISOLD SHRAS AT
BEST OVER THE NEXT SVRL DAYS UNDER A MDT TRADE WIND FLOW. H5 RIDGE
BUILDS WWD EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALSO ACT TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION. IN ABSENCE OF ANY REAL STRONG FORCING DO NOT SEE MORE
THAN ISOLD CONVECTION AND HAVE REMOVED THE SCT POPS THAT WERE IN
THE FCST.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH NO SIG WX. MAINLY
EAST WINDS 10-15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 5-7 FT OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS IN EAST GENERATED WIND
WAVES AND NORTH SWELLS.

[cycloneye]

Good moring.Some showers will move thru the NE Caribbean today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
443 AM AST SAT JAN 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. SUBTROPICAL HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WWD
INTO THE EASTERN CARIB EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HOLD THRU THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER BATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVED ACROSS THE
EASTERN WATERS GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AN AREA OF DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TODAY.
VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST..AND TISX. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS WIND RELAX ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...THEREFORE THE SCA WAS CANCELLED FOR THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THE BUOY 41043 IS REPORTING SEAS AT AROUND 7 FEET.
ALTHOUGH IS BORDERLINE...THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC
LOCAL OFF SHORE WATERS. A LONG PERIOD BUT SMALL NORTHERLY SWELL
WILL BEGIN TO REACH OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS SWELL WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK ON SUNDAY MORNING AT 1.4
METER AND WITH PERIODS OF 11 SECONDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 82 74 / 20 10 10 10
STT 83 73 84 75 / 10 10 10 10

[Gustywind]

[Macrocane]

Good morning. It's still windy here but not as much as yesterday, the coldest minimum temperatures of the week were experienced today in most of Central America (even in Panama):

Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 13.1°C (55.6°F)
Belize city, Belize 18°C (64°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 10.2°C (50.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala -0.2°C (31.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 19°C (66°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.5°C (49.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.5°C (67.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 13.8°C (56.8°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.2°C (63.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.9°C (42.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.7°C (71.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.1°C (57.4°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
130 PM AST SAT JAN 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIB EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HOLD
THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS PUERTO RICO. THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SAW
SOME CLOUDINESS MAINLY IN EAST TO WEST STREAMERS OVER SAINT
CROIX. ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WERE DETECTED BY THE DOPPLER
RADAR MAINLY OVER THE OFFSHORE NORTHERN WATERS. AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY`S EARLY MORNING FOR THE USVI AND
EAST HALF OF PR AS ANOTHER BATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCATED
BETWEEN SAINT CROIX AND THE LEEWARDS CONTINUES TO MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD. METAR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LEEWARDS INDICATED ONLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS...AND THE GUADELOUPE RADAR
ONLY SHOWED ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. LATEST MIMIC TPW LOOPS SHOWED
SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN PW VALUES SINCE YESTERDAY WITH
VALUES BETWEEEN .80 AND 1.20 IN. GIVEN THIS WILL KEEP THE SHOWER
PROBABILITY IN THE MID SCATTERED RANGE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE
USVI AND PR TONIGHT. A WEAK AND SHALLOW PERTURBATION ALOFT SHOULD
CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING BUT EFFECTS TO BE
LIMITED. WEATHER BEYOND SUNDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE ARRIVAL
FROM TIME TO TIME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PATCHES.




&&

.AVIATION...MOSLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TJNR...IST..AND
TISX...BECOMING ISOLATED NEAR TNCM AND TKPK. WINDS BELOW 10 THSD
FT WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41043 STILL REPORTING SEAS AT 8.5 FEET. THE SCA
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC LOCAL OFF SHORE WATERS THRU
MONDAY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 82 74 / 40 40 30 30
STT 83 73 84 75 / 50 50 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST SUN JAN 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIB EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HOLD
THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MID MORNING. THE FAA/NWS DOPPLER
RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. AT AROUND MIDNIGHT...
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVED ON SHORE AFFECTING THE THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO.

A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
LIMITING ONCE AGAIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA THOUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST...REACHING OUR LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION.

A SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
MOISTURE PATCHES MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
TODAY. VCSH SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 16/18Z..AS AN AREA OF
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS BELOW 10K FT WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41043 STILL REPORTING SEAS AT AROUND 7 FEET. THE
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC LOCAL OFF SHORE WATERS THRU
MONDAY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 82 74 / 30 30 10 10
STT 84 73 85 76 / 30 30 10 10

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST SUN JAN 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK...RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALL IN ALL...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS
OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
EXPECT THE FIRST OF THESE MOISTURE AREAS TO AFFECT THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...THE EASTERN PART OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...WITH SOME
CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL NXT 24 HRS. NO SIGNIFICANT
OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. INTERVALS OF PASSING L/LVL CLDS AND FEW SHRA WITH MOSTLY
SCT CLD LYR BTW 020-070 KFT...AND WNDS BLO 10K FT FM THE EAST AT
10-15 KTS...VEERING AND BCMG WESTERLY WHILE INCR WITH HT ABV 15K
FT.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
7 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND THERE IS A PRECAUTIONARY
STATEMENT FOR MOST OF THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 72 82 / 30 20 10 20
STT 74 85 75 84 / 30 20 10 20

[Macrocane]

Hi. The northerly winds are finally gone in the region though we got some wind gusts earlier today. This is the list of locations that registered today the coolest temperature since the cold surge began 5 days ago: Zacapa, San Salvador, Las Pilas, La Esperanza, Managua and San Jose. The other locations had similar or warmer than yesterday readings.

Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 15.8°C (60.4°F)
Belize city, Belize 19°C (66°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 11.1°C (52.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 1.3°C (34.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 16°C (61°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 16.8°C (62.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 7.1°C (44.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 9°C (48°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 14.3°C (57.7°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.6°C (61.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.5°C (41.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.2°C (73.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.1°C (57.4°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
529 AM AST MON JAN 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS....A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK...RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN A PATCH OF SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS FROM THE EAST. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN
AREA. NONE OF THESE SHOWERS PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES. THIS AREA WILL BE REACHING AREA TONIGHT...
EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TODAY.
VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST..TISX...AND TJSJ DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...THE BUOYS 41043 AND 41053 ARE REPORTING BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...THIS IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS
WILL GENERATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. ALTHOUGH
WW3 CONTINUE TO FORECAST SEAS UP TO 9 FEET...LATEST MODELS RUNS
ARE NOT SHOWING STRONG WINDS AS FORECASTED BEFORE...THEREFORE
DECREASE THE SEAS TO 7 FEET FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN SCA
WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 82 73 / 20 10 20 20
STT 85 74 84 74 / 20 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
232 PM AST MON JAN 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...FAIRLY STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM SOUTH AMERICA...
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME THROUGH MOST OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK THIS WILL RESULTING IN OVERALL SUBSIDENT
AIR MASS WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. IN
ADDITIONS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL HELP MAINTAIN MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE TRADE
WIND IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST AND AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS AND MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS EXPECTED PATTERN WILL HELP
RELAX THE LOCAL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS ALLOW FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY FAIR AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT
OCCASIONAL BAND AND PATCHES OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE TO PROPAGATE FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER SOME OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GFS GUIDANCE WHICH INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE PRESENT CONDITIONS...
FORESEE NO MAJOR OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SHALLOW PASSING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL VORTICIES
AND INDUCED EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE NEXT 24 HRS. VCSH ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE
MORNING ACROSS TJSJ...TNCM...TKPK...TIST..AND TISX. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY EAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 73 81 / 20 20 20 20
STT 75 85 74 85 / 20 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
941 PM AST MON JAN 17 2011

.UPDATE...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND SURROUNDING WATERS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING...
INDUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS OVER THE VI. ONLY MINOR
CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE NEXT 24 HRS. VCSH ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE
MORNING ACROSS TJSJ...TNCM...TKPK...TIST..AND TISX. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY EAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS.

[Macrocane]

Hi. I've updated the Central American Cold Surges Thread with the observations of last week's event.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
454 AM AST TUE JAN 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM SOUTH AMERICA...
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK THIS WILL RESULTING IN OVERALL SUBSIDE NT AIR MASS WITH
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. A
FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO WEATHER FEATURE THE COULD GENERATE A
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PATCHES EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. THEREFORE EXPECT OVERNIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TODAY.
SOME PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER TNCM...TKPK...TIST...AND
TIST THROUGH AT LEAST 18/18Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...THE NAM AND THE GFS MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
MODERATE INCREASE ON WINDS TODAY AND ANOTHER INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY...GENERATING A CHOP ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. A MODERATE
NORTHEAST SWELL WILL PEAK LATER TODAY. THIS TWO FACTORS WILL
COMBINE AND PRODUCE CONFUSES SEAS THROUGH THE INCOMING
WEEKEND...THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
ANEGADA PASSAGE...EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC.
MARINES SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTIONS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINING WATERS.
MODELS ARE NOT FORECASTING ANY LARGE SWELL EVENT THROUGH AT LEAST
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 73 82 73 / 20 20 20 20
STT 85 73 85 74 / 20 20 10 10

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST TUE JAN 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST FLOW FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WITH A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH OR NEAR CUBA FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS KEEPS A SERIES OF LOWS MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES JUST OFFSHORE BUT ALSO PREVENTS THEIR
ASSOCIATED FRONTS FROM APPROACHING THE AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS THEREFORE PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED PATCHES OF CONVECTION
MOVING WEST NORTHWEST...SOME OF WHICH HAD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH
GUST FRONTS AND SHOWERS EMANATING FROM THEIR CENTERS. THIS FLOW
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEK...BUT SINCE
MOISTURE IS SHALLOW THE ENTIRE TIME...INTERIOR SHOWERS WILL BE FEW
AND ALL OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE SHALLOW...CONSISTING OF QUICK
PASSING SHOWERS WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. LITTLE CHANGE IS
INDICATED EXCEPT THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GAIN A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL SLIGHTLY ON THE NORTH COAST.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ IN -SHRA THROUGH
ABOUT 18/22Z. VCSH ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING
ACROSS TJSJ...TNCM...TKPK...TIST..AND TISX. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
EAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL OF LESS THAN 1.2 METERS WILL
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY BUT CONTINUING WINDS OVER EXPOSED AREAS WILL
GENERATE WIND WAVES FROM THE EAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST THAT MAKE SEAS
CLOSE TO 7 FEET THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY IN THE ATLANTIC AND THE
OUTER CARIBBEAN WATERS. NEAR SHORE WATERS...HOWEVER...HAVE BEEN
RUNNING 5 FEET OR LESS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 82 72 80 / 20 30 30 30
STT 74 84 74 84 / 20 30 30 20