Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Brandon8181]

Why aren't local met's picking up on this at all? I mean, no one is even talking about it?

Is it they feel like the chances are to slim and not even worth mentioning?

[Ntxw]

Why aren't local met's picking up on this at all? I mean, no one is even talking about it?

Is it they feel like the chances are to slim and not even worth mentioning?

Models are not depicting an outbreak of snow and ice. This is something our posters/pro mets are going by based on past experienced and how shallow arctic air masses work. These things are tricky in that what appears to be rain, is actually frozen should it move faster than advertised. The models are just now picking up on light precip and leading edge of the front.

FW

THE SECOND SYSTEM EXPECTED ON THURSDAY MAY HAVE
JUST A BIT MORE ELEVATED MOISTURE THAN THE TUESDAY SYSTEM SO WILL
INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT POP CHANCES FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. AS OF
NOW...WILL LEAVE ALL PRECIPITATION LIQUID...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON FORECASTED TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN THE COMING DAYS.

[Brandon8181]

Why aren't local met's picking up on this at all? I mean, no one is even talking about it?

Is it they feel like the chances are to slim and not even worth mentioning?

Models are not depicting an outbreak of snow and ice. This is something our posters/pro mets are going by based on past experienced and how shallow arctic air masses work. These things are tricky in that what appears to be rain, is actually frozen should it move faster than advertised. The models are just now picking up on light precip and leading edge of the front.

FW

THE SECOND SYSTEM EXPECTED ON THURSDAY MAY HAVE
JUST A BIT MORE ELEVATED MOISTURE THAN THE TUESDAY SYSTEM SO WILL
INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT POP CHANCES FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. AS OF
NOW...WILL LEAVE ALL PRECIPITATION LIQUID...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON FORECASTED TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN THE COMING DAYS.

I see, thank you for the insight!

[somethingfunny]

This seems like a wonderful time to post the S2K Disclaimer. You all know what it says.

[srainhoutx]

This seems like a wonderful time to post the S2K Disclaimer. You all know what it says.

It's getting mighty close....

[wall_cloud]

Why aren't local met's picking up on this at all? I mean, no one is even talking about it?

Is it they feel like the chances are to slim and not even worth mentioning?

Because it is a LOT easier to make a typically anonymous post on a message board with your forecast rather than stick your neck out there for a low probability event and be wrong. Now don't read too much into it but posting on a message board and broadcasting it over the airwaves or to your congressman are completely different. THAT is why they aren't hyping it. Most individuals aren't like the posters here. They hear snow and panic.

[iorange55]

Why aren't local met's picking up on this at all? I mean, no one is even talking about it?

Is it they feel like the chances are to slim and not even worth mentioning?

Because it is a LOT easier to make a typically anonymous post on a message board with your forecast rather than stick your neck out there for a low probability event and be wrong. Now don't read too much into it but posting on a message board and broadcasting it over the airwaves or to your congressman are completely different. THAT is why they aren't hyping it. Most individuals aren't like the posters here. They here snow and panic.

And when they hear ice they jump off bridges.

[Metalicwx220]

Why aren't local met's picking up on this at all? I mean, no one is even talking about it?

Is it they feel like the chances are to slim and not even worth mentioning?

Because it is a LOT easier to make a typically anonymous post on a message board with your forecast rather than stick your neck out there for a low probability event and be wrong. Now don't read too much into it but posting on a message board and broadcasting it over the airwaves or to your congressman are completely different. THAT is why they aren't hyping it. Most individuals aren't like the posters here. They here snow and panic.

And when they hear ice they jump off bridges.

And when they hear sleet they fly off cliffs.

[gpsnowman]

The pro mets are good at what they do weather wise. They are also good at crowd control. They have to be. Predicting a big snow or ice storm several days out would send this area(DFW) into a frenzy. Most people would not handle it well. Conservative forecasting is needed for that reason. Why send a huge tv market into a frenzy 4 to 5 days out when it is going to happen 1 to 3 days out anyway. And personally they would have to eat crow if they were wrong like wall_cloud mentioned. Just some random musings from a weather novice like me. Hope it makes sense.

[wxman57]

Why aren't local met's picking up on this at all? I mean, no one is even talking about it?
Is it they feel like the chances are to slim and not even worth mentioning?

Note that I'm not currently forecasting an ice storm/event. I'm just identifying what I think might be one possibility for next Thursday. There are a few subtle signals in the models that point to such an event, along with the presence of some very cold air in western Canada. No model is actually forecasting anything significant - yet. If it's going to happen, the models will probably catch on as late as Tuesday.

[wall_cloud]

what gpsnowman said. Meteorology is becoming just as much a social science as it is a physical one. Its not only knowing the information but being able to relay what you want to the customer/public. Its amazing how many mets are good forecasters but lack the ability to convey skill that into an actual forecast.

[Ntxw]

Canadian sure looks fun! Lots of opportunities. It looks a bit strange with the cold air later this week, 540 thickness and 0c makes it to DFW (with precip I might add) and quickly drives back north. Obvious flag right there of not handling the air mass well. The 0z GFS is starting to bite on the frontal storm, still has it a bit north but good start.

[wxman22]

Yea it certainly does, it actually shows the trough axis lagging behind the front.

[Brandon8181]

Yea it certainly does, it actually shows the trough axis lagging behind the front.

Kind of what I was thinking might happen..we will see.

[Brandon8181]

Canadian sure looks fun! Lots of opportunities. It looks a bit strange with the cold air later this week, 540 thickness and 0c makes it to DFW (with precip I might add) and quickly drives back north. Obvious flag right there of not handling the air mass well. The 0z GFS is starting to bite on the frontal storm, still has it a bit north but good start.

Seems like they are looking a little more favorable for winter weather, than they were earlier?

Of course, watch - tomorrow they'll suggest temps in the 70's

lol

[Texas Snowman]

Or show an approaching tropical cyclone...

[northtxboy]

so what are you thinking for next week Texas snowman? ice/snow/hurricane?

[wxman57]

It's very unlikely that the GFS will be a source for identifying any freezing/frozen precip with a shallow layer of Arctic air this week. I'd look toward the Canadian and Euro for picking up on the upper-level features better, though they'll both likely do a poor job with surface features (front location, precip) as well. What I see in the Euro and hinted at in the Canadian is a very shallow layer of sub-freezing air across TX/OK Wednesday night. You can tell it's shallow by how far north the 850mb (5000ft) freezing line is compared to the likely surface freezing line. I think there's an increasing risk of freezing rain/sleet from NE TX (Dallas area, maybe a bit south of there) north through OK next Wed night/Thu. I don't see any such threat for SE TX even hinted at. The air in western Canada is pretty cold now. Let's see what starts moving down in the next day or two.

[Portastorm]

As always, we appreciate your keen insight Wxman57. For those of you who are relatively new, pay attention to what our pro mets tell us. Great opportunities to learn more about weather/meteorology.

The NWS HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) this morning has an interesting preliminary discussion which supports what Wxman57 is telling us.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
722 AM EST SUN JAN 16 2011

VALID 12Z THU JAN 20 2011 - 12Z SUN JAN 23 2011


VERY POOR MODEL AND RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALL
OPERATIONAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE SUSPECT. USE OF LAGGED AVERAGE
FORECASTS EXAMINING MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY YIELDS A SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREED UPON ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH LOOKS CLOSEST TO THE 00Z
ECMWF MEAN. THIS WAS USED AS A BASE WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD BRING AN
OFFSHORE/SANTA ANA EVENT TO CA WED INTO THURS. A DIFUSE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE GLFMEX COAST FRI AND INTO
SAT AND MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST SAT AND SUN. RAIN
POTENTIAL ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST COAST FRI AND SAT
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NRN EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN THE INTERIOR PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS
AND POSSIBILY THE MID ATLC COASTAL PLAIN AS PER ECMWF ENS MEAN.
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

AN OVERALL BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP COAST TO COAST WILL KEEP MOST
OF CONUS BELOW NORMAL LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
ROSENSTEIN

[Brandon8181]

It's very unlikely that the GFS will be a source for identifying any freezing/frozen precip with a shallow layer of Arctic air this week. I'd look toward the Canadian and Euro for picking up on the upper-level features better, though they'll both likely do a poor job with surface features (front location, precip) as well. What I see in the Euro and hinted at in the Canadian is a very shallow layer of sub-freezing air across TX/OK Wednesday night. You can tell it's shallow by how far north the 850mb (5000ft) freezing line is compared to the likely surface freezing line. I think there's an increasing risk of freezing rain/sleet from NE TX (Dallas area, maybe a bit south of there) north through OK next Wed night/Thu. I don't see any such threat for SE TX even hinted at. The air in western Canada is pretty cold now. Let's see what starts moving down in the next day or two.

Hello again!

I really enjoy the specific information "What I see in the Euro and hinted at in the Canadian is a very shallow layer of sub-freezing air across TX/OK Wednesday night. (particularly this >>>>You can tell it's shallow by how far north the 850mb (5000ft) freezing line is compared to the likely surface freezing line."<<<<) It makes it a lot easier for me to understand....

There are a lot of things I don't understand so I appreciate you being specific with that kind of stuff, it helps me learn