Texas Winter 2010-2011

[SouthernMet]

All the forecast I see shows it warming up here in Houston 60's almost 70 one one day

Thats Thursday, for DFW and OKC. Houston isn't progged to tap into the colder air untill Friday.

[Brandon8181]

Just another boring week ahead...

Really seems like everyone is real hesitant about jumping on with this one..

[Mr. Weather]

All the forecast I see shows it warming up here in Houston 60's almost 70 one one day

Thats Thursday, for DFW and OKC. Houston isn't progged to tap into the colder air untill Friday.

How cold they think it might get down here any possibility for some sleet maybe ?

[SouthernMet]

How cold they think it might get down here any possibility for some sleet maybe ?

40's Friday, 50's for the weekend for Houston. I think you know the answer to the 2nd question..

[Mr. Weather]

How cold they think it might get down here any possibility for some sleet maybe ?

40's Friday, 50's for the weekend for Houston. I think you know the answer to the 2nd question..

Yea I know just searching for a little hope

[Portastorm]

It is interesting to see that Midland/Odessa, San Angelo, Norman and Shreveport are all mentioning the possibility of a wintry mix on Thursday. They all suggest that their temps may be too warm as well. And then the discussion begins to turn toward next weekend and another reinforcing shot of cold air and another Upper Air disturbance. Just another boring week ahead...

Equally interesting is the lack of mention from NWSFOs Fort Worth and New Braunfels of freezing rain or sleet next week.

[iorange55]

It is interesting to see that Midland/Odessa, San Angelo, Norman and Shreveport are all mentioning the possibility of a wintry mix on Thursday. They all suggest that their temps may be too warm as well. And then the discussion begins to turn toward next weekend and another reinforcing shot of cold air and another Upper Air disturbance. Just another boring week ahead...

Equally interesting is the lack of mention from NWSFOs Fort Worth and New Braunfels of freezing rain or sleet next week.

Yeah Fort Worth didn't even mention a chance of it.

[Brandon8181]

It is interesting to see that Midland/Odessa, San Angelo, Norman and Shreveport are all mentioning the possibility of a wintry mix on Thursday. They all suggest that their temps may be too warm as well. And then the discussion begins to turn toward next weekend and another reinforcing shot of cold air and another Upper Air disturbance. Just another boring week ahead...

Equally interesting is the lack of mention from NWSFOs Fort Worth and New Braunfels of freezing rain or sleet next week.

Yeah Fort Worth didn't even mention a chance of it.

I wonder why it wasn't even discussed?

[Portastorm]

Good question Brandon. Not sure what they're looking at. Maybe they're model hugging to the GFS and the MOS grid numbers. Maybe they figure they have another day or two to play it conservative before mentioning anything. Or maybe we're reading the non-GFS models incorrectly. Considering the input we've seen from our own pro mets here, I don't think it's the latter.

Some offices/forecasters are more skilled than others when it comes to forecasting winter weather in the South. Let's not forget we saw some great work from Fort Worth a few weeks back. All of this to say ... I don't know!

[Brandon8181]

Good question Brandon. Not sure what they're looking at. Maybe they're model hugging to the GFS and the MOS grid numbers. Maybe they figure they have another day or two to play it conservative before mentioning anything. Or maybe we're reading the non-GFS models incorrectly. Considering the input we've seen from our own pro mets here, I don't think it's the latter.

Some offices/forecasters are more skilled than others when it comes to forecasting winter weather in the South. Let's not forget we saw some great work from Fort Worth a few weeks back. All of this to say ... I don't know!

I know I gave my forecast for my area of north Texas that I feel like we will have the opportunity for snow or sleet, and I know I may not be right...but I KNOW the opportunity is there.

I think they are playing conservative.

[Ntxw]

Actually, I don't think there really is any model that definitely says snow/ice/sleet for north/central Texas. Panhandle and Oklahoma, yes. We're just banking on the idea of a storm, and cold air coming in. Trending the past few days went from nothing to, light precip, to a decent storm. I too am surprised FW didn't give mention, though they did before, however there's no proof exactly yet that there will be. Patterns...

[Brandon8181]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

I still think there is still a good opportunity for North Central Texas to see a winter weather event late this week.

So I'm going to stick to my guns for now, hoping I don't eat it later

Here is my thoughts, generally for Sherman/Denison area

Wed. High near 52 increasing clouds
Thu. High Near 49 falling to 30 by 5 p.m. with sleet or snow possible continuing over night into early Friday morning.
Fri. High near 39 with snow possible early
Sat High around 36 with light snow flurries possible.

I generally think that this event will be more significant than most think - but I'm hoping for sleet snow so

The models continue to trend more toward "something" happening.

[gboudx]

I wonder why it wasn't even discussed?

I don't know who has been writing the AFD's, but we usually see much more detailed discussions from mets Cavanaugh and Dunn. Maybe when either of them rotates back in we'll see some more detail.

[amawea]

I don't know what's going on with NOAA's site but I haven't been able to get the zone forecast out of Springfield and Memphis most of the day. Springfield was working but now it isn't. Little Rock is up now but hasn't been updated since this a.m. Memphis zone forecast isn't showing up.

[Brandon8181]

Well one local weather office in my area just jumped on the wagon, forecasting a 40% chance of winter mix Thursday for the Sherman/Denison area (grayson county) north central Texas

[SouthernMet]

Looks like the week of the 17-21 will be interesting also.

Did anyone notice GFS run from 00Z last night /this morning. It showed lots of precip with very cold temperatures.

Anyway. I guess we will focus on this week for now

You were on to something on the 5th

[DFW Stormwatcher]

If you're talking about the NWS out of Norman you're right.

Here is the forecast on the north end of the dam at Lake Texoma.

NWS Norman, OK
Point Forecast: Cartwright OK
33.84°N 96.55°W

Wednesday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36.

Thursday: A chance of snow and sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Thursday Night: A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 44.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.


[b]Southside: NWS Fort Worth at approximately Eisenhower state park[/b]

NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Point Forecast: 2 Miles S Cartwright OK
33.82°N 96.58°W (Elev. 617 ft)


Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 54. Southeast wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. South wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Thursday: A 40 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Windy, with a north northwest wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to between 20 and 25 mph. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. North wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 42.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 25.

2 miles divides these forecasts, just originating out of different offices, so just pick the one you like the best.

[Peanut432]

Forecast for extreme SW Oklahoma

Wednesday Night: A chance of rain or freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy and windy, with a high near 36

Note: Forecast is at the corner of three NWS offices. Lubbock and Amarillo have also added winter precip chances in neighboring county's albeit only slight chances. The forecast offices not always on the same page fwiw.

[somethingfunny]

That inconsistency between Norman and FWD used to bug the crap out of me when I lived in Pottsboro. Almost invariably Fort Worth is the more conservative WFO. We'll see which one ends up having better instincts on this one.

I watched FOX4's weather forecast at 9:45 tonight, Ron Jackson had a front on Thursday with a 30% chance of rain and then a low of 28 Thursday night, but he barely mentioned it and wanted to talk about how nice and warm and sunny next weekend will be, with highs in the 60s. I switched to CBS11 for the 10:00 news and their met had a 40% chance of rain but also barely mentioned it and wanted to talk about how cold it would be yet again this weekend, with highs in the 40s. :rolleyes:

Then I switched to NBC5 but I had missed their forecast segment, but as I moved to WFAA/ABC 8, and Steve MacCauley actually mentioned the possibility of wintry precipitaton. He appeared to take the Norman/FWD discrepancies literally, and showed a forecast graphic with rain for North Texas Thursday Morning and wintry mix/ice oriented SW-NE roughly from Wichita Falls to Muskogee and snow behind it for Central Oklahoma. Then he shifted it all east for Thursday afternoon, with the rain moving off into East Texas and the freezing precip line literally right along the Red River, and dry weather south of the border. :rolleyes: He said "this could change - stay tuned - but right now I think that we will dry out before we get below freezing - but stay tuned" as he showed a low of 28 and a 40% chance of rain.

We shall see, but we got our first sniff from the local OCMs.

[iorange55]

CMC still showing a close call. If it turns out to be right the southeast gets slammed hard again. They seem to be the winners this winter.


Euro looks interesting early next week maybe.