Texas Winter 2010-2011

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southerngale
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#2301 Postby southerngale » Mon Jan 17, 2011 1:54 am

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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2302 Postby southerngale » Mon Jan 17, 2011 3:34 am

CMC brings colder air to us than the GFS wants to give. Maybe someone else can analyze it better, though.

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#2303 Postby DentonGal » Mon Jan 17, 2011 7:45 am

Can I assume since this thread is so quiet, our little ice event for later in the week has fizzled out?
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2304 Postby txagwxman » Mon Jan 17, 2011 8:27 am

Latest ECMWF is 30F at noon in DFW with light precip...so still can't rule out freezing rain/sleet for DFW on Thursday.

GFS/NAM are much slower and weaker with the front. However history has shown that shallow arctic fronts make it further down the Plains than what the models suggest.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2305 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jan 17, 2011 8:40 am

A little better agreement this morning via the Opertaional models, but still a bit of a spread within the ensembles and those operational models. The HPC spells out the differences and suggests the Euro is the best fit, for now...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
801 AM EST MON JAN 17 2011

VALID 12Z FRI JAN 21 2011 - 12Z MON JAN 24 2011

EXPECT A LARGE SCALE MEAN TROF TO PERSIST OVER THE ERN HALF OF
CANADA INTO THE ERN HALF TO 2/3 OF THE CONUS FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN PAC
WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE NWRN CONUS/WRN CANADA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DIFFS STILL EXIST WITH DETAILS AMONG LATEST MODEL/ENSEMBLE
SOLNS AND CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF INDIVIDUAL MODELS BUT AS A WHOLE
AGREEMENT APPEARS TO HAVE IMPROVED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.


DAYS 3-5 THU-SAT MAINTAIN A SOLN SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF. AS OF
EARLY DAY 3 THU THERE ARE TIMING DIFFS WITH THE COLD FRONT SURGING
THRU THE SRN PLAINS WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS SLOWER THAN ECMWF-BASED
GUIDANCE. NEITHER SCENARIO IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE FULL
SOLN SPREAD. GIVEN THAT SUCH SURGES CAN SOMETIMES BE FCST A
LITTLE TOO SLOW... THE FASTER PORTION OF THE ENVELOPE SEEMS
REASONABLE.
BY DAY 4 FRI THERE IS A MODERATE AMOUNT OF SPREAD
REGARDING POSSIBLE SFC DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE EAST COAST. THE 00Z
CANADIAN IS A DEEP/WWD EXTREME COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL/ENSEMBLE
SOLNS AND THE 06Z GFS IS RATHER FAR WWD AS WELL. THE 00Z GEFS
MEAN IS A SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER VERSION OF THE 00Z ECMWF. ON
THE OTHER HAND THE UKMET AND CANADIAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW
LESS DEVELOPMENT THAN THE 00Z ECMWF... LEAVING THE 00Z ECMWF AS A
GOOD INTERMEDIATE SOLN AT THIS TIME. BY DAY 5 SAT THE MAIN
FEATURE OF NOTE IS A WAVE REACHING THE PLAINS OR MS VALLEY. A
FASTER TREND OF THE 06Z GFS VERSUS THE 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN ADD
SUPPORT TO THE 00Z ECMWF SCENARIO BUT THERE REMAINS ENOUGH
TIMING/DETAIL SPREAD TO KEEP CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO LOW.
FARTHER
WWD THE 00Z ECMWF IS ONE OF THE STRONGER SOLNS WITH A SHRTWV
REACHING THE NWRN CONUS BY EARLY SAT. THIS FEATURE IS FARTHER NWD
IN THE 00Z CMC AND HINTED AT IN WEAKER FORM BY ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND
THE UKMET. WILL AWAIT 12Z GUIDANCE FOR ANY CONFIDENT ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE ECMWF HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE IN LIGHT OF ECMWF PREFERENCE
ELSEWHERE.

DAYS 6-7 SUN-MON INCORPORATE 50-60 PCT OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AS CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN THE SPECIFICS
OF THE OPERATIONAL RUN. THE 00Z ECMWF IS WITHIN THE FULL SOLN
SPREAD OVER THE WEST/PLAINS BUT CURRENT MODEL/ENSEMBLE DIFFS AND
ECMWF RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CHANGES REQUIRE A BLENDED APPROACH TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. MEANWHILE ENSEMBLE SUPPORT IS LACKING
FOR THE 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A WELL DEFINED SFC LOW BEING LOCATED OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS OF EARLY DAY 7 MON... AS GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SHOWS BROADER FLOW ALOFT THAN FCST BY THE 00Z ECMWF.
THE PREFERRED BLEND STILL YIELDS A WEAK WAVE BUT IS MUCH CLOSER TO
THE MIDDLE OF THE FULL ARRAY OF GUIDANCE.

RAUSCH/CISCO
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2306 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 17, 2011 8:53 am

I’d say the GFS has swung over to the Euro camp as far as Thursday’s weather pattern. GFS is now showing the trof in the southwest approaching as the Arctic air slips southward through OK into TX. Take note of what the GFS is doing in the TX Panhandle. It develops a low there and tries to drive the Arctic air back north as a warm front through OK on Wednesday evening. That’s a common GFS mistake with a shallow Arctic airmass. It’s possible that the Arctic air could be well south of the Red River, perhaps even in SE TX by Wednesday evening. That could mean a large are of freezing rain/sleet to our north from the TX Hill Country through Dallas/Ft. Worth to southern OK, with snow in northern OK.

Comparing the Euro 72, 96 and 120 hrs, I see little difference between it and the 00Z GFS. Neither brings the 850mb 0C line anywhere near us, indicating a shallow layer of cold air. I also made a meteogram for Houston from the 00Z GFS. A low temp near 32 next Saturday is the coldest indicated for Houston through next Monday.

What I see as a greater threat is a central to NE TX to southern or central OK freezing rain event on Thursday. Probably east to Arkansas, too. The BIG question is just what kind of airmass will move south out of Canada? Temps in NW Canada are a good 20-40 degrees colder than they were prior to last week’s front. For SE TX? Nothing too interesting. More cold rain Thursday. I see nothing to indicate otherwise.

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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2307 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 17, 2011 9:04 am

This event doesn't appear to be anything significant for North Texas. The best dynamics/lift appears to be across Oklahoma into Arkansas.

I guess that area of better lift could shift further south with a faster front
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2308 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jan 17, 2011 9:15 am

orangeblood wrote:This event doesn't appear to be anything significant for North Texas. The best dynamics/lift appears to be across Oklahoma into Arkansas.

I guess that area of better lift could shift further south with a faster front


I'd be very cautious as there is still enough spread within the ensembles to suggest otherwise...

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Re:

#2309 Postby Brandon8181 » Mon Jan 17, 2011 9:47 am

DentonGal wrote:Can I assume since this thread is so quiet, our little ice event for later in the week has fizzled out?

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As I suggested on Saturday 15th, my opinion is that North Texas area will still see sleet and snow late Thu into Friday.

Again, still sticking to the same. Other than a few small changes my thoughts on this winter storm still remain the same.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2310 Postby Brandon8181 » Mon Jan 17, 2011 9:49 am

wxman57 wrote:I’d say the GFS has swung over to the Euro camp as far as Thursday’s weather pattern. GFS is now showing the trof in the southwest approaching as the Arctic air slips southward through OK into TX. Take note of what the GFS is doing in the TX Panhandle. It develops a low there and tries to drive the Arctic air back north as a warm front through OK on Wednesday evening. That’s a common GFS mistake with a shallow Arctic airmass. It’s possible that the Arctic air could be well south of the Red River, perhaps even in SE TX by Wednesday evening. That could mean a large are of freezing rain/sleet to our north from the TX Hill Country through Dallas/Ft. Worth to southern OK, with snow in northern OK.

Comparing the Euro 72, 96 and 120 hrs, I see little difference between it and the 00Z GFS. Neither brings the 850mb 0C line anywhere near us, indicating a shallow layer of cold air. I also made a meteogram for Houston from the 00Z GFS. A low temp near 32 next Saturday is the coldest indicated for Houston through next Monday.

What I see as a greater threat is a central to NE TX to southern or central OK freezing rain event on Thursday. Probably east to Arkansas, too. The BIG question is just what kind of airmass will move south out of Canada? Temps in NW Canada are a good 20-40 degrees colder than they were prior to last week’s front. For SE TX? Nothing too interesting. More cold rain Thursday. I see nothing to indicate otherwise.


I think there is an outside chance that southeast Texas could see a winter mix. Less than 10% chance.. What do you think ? I mean I do understand that its significantly more likely as you said, a cold rain, but ....again I still think there is an outside chance.

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Re: Re:

#2311 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 17, 2011 10:04 am

Brandon8181 wrote:
DentonGal wrote:Can I assume since this thread is so quiet, our little ice event for later in the week has fizzled out?

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As I suggested on Saturday 15th, my opinion is that North Texas area will still see sleet and snow late Thu into Friday.

Again, still sticking to the same. Other than a few small changes my thoughts on this winter storm still remain the same.


Would you mind explaining your reasoning behind your forecast? i.e faster front, slower/deeper trough than what is currently being shown by most models, something you're picking up on satellite/water vapor images, etc.

Just trying to get an idea of what you're basing your forecast on?
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Re: Re:

#2312 Postby Brandon8181 » Mon Jan 17, 2011 10:14 am

orangeblood wrote:
Brandon8181 wrote:
DentonGal wrote:Can I assume since this thread is so quiet, our little ice event for later in the week has fizzled out?

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.


As I suggested on Saturday 15th, my opinion is that North Texas area will still see sleet and snow late Thu into Friday.

Again, still sticking to the same. Other than a few small changes my thoughts on this winter storm still remain the same.


Would you mind explaining your reasoning behind your forecast? i.e faster front, slower/deeper trough than what is currently being shown by most models, something you're picking up on satellite/water vapor images, etc.

Just trying to get an idea of what you're basing your forecast on?


Good morning ..

I feel like the front will move faster than forecast as with history these types of fronts have been hard to analyze by the computer models and it seems like they usually tend to come in faster and stronger than what the models usually suggest. (especially artic fronts)

I think the the trough will come through pretty swift, and I think as far as our area (speaking of north central Texas) I think the further north and east you get the better your chances are.

I also feel like the models generally speaking with each run are coming into "more of an agreement" even though they don't specifically agree; I feel like they are coming closer together..

GFS shows precip over north Texas Thursday afternoon/evening with temperatures in the lower 30's falling throughout the night/evening.

I feel like everything really supports some sort of a medium winter storm.

Again, don't laugh at me if I'm wrong lol I enjoy the discussion :)

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Re: Re:

#2313 Postby Brandon8181 » Mon Jan 17, 2011 10:17 am

I also use Canadian, GFS, Euro, and Nam.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2314 Postby Brandon8181 » Mon Jan 17, 2011 10:22 am

From NWS Norman, OK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN...BUT CHANGE QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW.
THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS GREATEST OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SOME ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.

IT WILL ALSO TURN MUCH COLDER...WITH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND THE TEENS
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ON FRIDAY
MORNING...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD... RANGING FROM NEAR
5 DEGREES IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...TO THE MIDDLE TEENS ALONG THE RED
RIVER.

I'm about 8 miles or so south of the Red River
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2315 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jan 17, 2011 11:06 am

It appears the 12z GFS continues its trend of developing low pressure in the Texas Panhandle, holding up the Arctic air.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_060.shtml

As Wxman57 posted earlier today, this is a common error of this model in these situations. NWS forecasters in Texas this week have their work cut out for them.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2316 Postby tdgreen08 » Mon Jan 17, 2011 11:28 am

Brandon8181 wrote:From NWS Norman, OK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN...BUT CHANGE QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW.
THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS GREATEST OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SOME ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.

IT WILL ALSO TURN MUCH COLDER...WITH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND THE TEENS
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ON FRIDAY
MORNING...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD... RANGING FROM NEAR
5 DEGREES IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...TO THE MIDDLE TEENS ALONG THE RED
RIVER.

I'm about 8 miles or so south of the Red River


I am not much of a meteorologist, but I do enjoy the discussions and I always love to learn. However, the barrier along the Red River appears to be more than the fabled Barbed Wire fence. I can say that my bones and joints are saying it is going to be wet and cold. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2317 Postby Brandon8181 » Mon Jan 17, 2011 11:44 am

tdgreen08 wrote:
Brandon8181 wrote:From NWS Norman, OK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN...BUT CHANGE QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW.
THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS GREATEST OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SOME ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.

IT WILL ALSO TURN MUCH COLDER...WITH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...AND THE TEENS
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ON FRIDAY
MORNING...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD... RANGING FROM NEAR
5 DEGREES IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...TO THE MIDDLE TEENS ALONG THE RED
RIVER.

I'm about 8 miles or so south of the Red River


I am not much of a meteorologist, but I do enjoy the discussions and I always love to learn. However, the barrier along the Red River appears to be more than the fabled Barbed Wire fence. I can say that my bones and joints are saying it is going to be wet and cold. :lol:


It is a fence for sure!!!! :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2318 Postby Tejas89 » Mon Jan 17, 2011 11:50 am

This is turning out to be a wet and chilly January for NTX regardless of rain or ice later this week. Another rain system progged to move in early next week.

Seems like a bonus during "La Nina."
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2319 Postby DFW Stormwatcher » Mon Jan 17, 2011 11:51 am

Tejas89 wrote:This is turning out to be a wet and chilly January for NTX regardless of rain or ice later this week. Another rain system progged to move in early next week.

Seems like a bonus during "La Nina."



No doubt, cuts down on the water bill thats for sure.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2320 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 17, 2011 12:05 pm

Portastorm wrote:It appears the 12z GFS continues its trend of developing low pressure in the Texas Panhandle, holding up the Arctic air.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_060.shtml

As Wxman57 posted earlier today, this is a common error of this model in these situations. NWS forecasters in Texas this week have their work cut out for them.


Hard to give many details about Thursday's weather with any confidence this far out. I see this as a freezing rain/sleet threat, not snow. Could be a trace of freezing rain, could be 1/2". It all depends on the airmass that slips south ahead of the upper trof axis. Also note that if you are only looking at the deterministic model forecasts (Euro, Canadian, GFS), then not one of them actually shows the sub-freezing air in place prior to the precip event. We're still talking about a "possibility" that the sub-freezing dense Arctic air moves farther south than the models are forecasting by Wednesday night, setting eh stage for freezing rain/sleet to our north.

Also of interest is the 00Z Canadian model showing MUCH colder air across teh Gulf Coast by Friday than are the GFS/Euro.
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