Texas Winter 2010-2011

[srainhoutx]

Impact Weather has just issued a new video regarding this weeks expected events from TX to points East...

http://www.youtube.com/impactweather

[Portastorm]

One of the things that I am curious about is the progressive nature (or lack thereof) of the upper trof axis. It seems to me that the model trend of the last 24 hours is to have the trof more progressive with less (or no) energy lagging behind. Obviously if we could get the arctic air to cooperate ... we still need some upper level energy (i.e. lift) to provide the precipitation. Going to be interesting to see how it shakes out.

[Ntxw]

One of the things that I am curious about is the progressive nature (or lack thereof) of the upper trof axis. It seems to me that the model trend of the last 24 hours is to have the trof more progressive with less (or no) energy lagging behind. Obviously if we could get the arctic air to cooperate ... we still need some upper level energy (i.e. lift) to provide the precipitation. Going to be interesting to see how it shakes out.

Yeah the Canadian this morning is a bit less diggy. However, everything is striding on how fast the cold air is coming down, doubt lift is the problem, I think we'll have a good picture tomorrow evening. It's beginning to drop below 0 in Montana .

We are focusing too much of a set up for snow (lagging deep trough/energy). Progressive nature actually, I think correct me please, has the better chance at ice due to the quick nature of the moisture not allowing time for the cold to deepen. Hence all on the arctic front.

[Portastorm]

On this topic, Ntxw, srainhoutx just posted the 12z Canadian on the "local" forum. It does suggest more energy lagging behind at 500mb as well as cyclogenesis off the southern tip of Texas. Interesting.



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[Ntxw]

On this topic, Ntxw, srainhoutx just posted the 12z Canadian on the "local" forum. It does suggest more energy lagging behind at 500mb as well as cyclogenesis off the southern tip of Texas. Interesting.

I would like the two to consolidate, which is still on the table. It lags a piece behind in California .

FW

AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS...WE WILL SEE A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE OF RAIN AREA WIDE AND THE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS THE
VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO PROMPT THE
MENTION OF SOME LIGHT WINTERY PRECIPITATION AT LEAST ALONG THE
RED RIVER BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THURSDAY EVENING. WE
COULD SEE A MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON...IF YOU BELIEVE THE COLDER
MODELS...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION IT DURING THE EVENING. THE
COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE SURFACE HIGH THAT BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL THEN RETURN. WE WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES AGAIN NEXT
MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

[iorange55]

FWNWS has been a downer with this storm.

[Ntxw]

FWNWS has been a downer with this storm.

Did you take a look at the GFS? right on cue for February! Just looking at the maps you'd be asking how strong is the Nino. Everything looks so suppressed and cold, we're bound to hit the jackpot. It's not just the deterministic models hinting at it...

[Portastorm]

FWNWS has been a downer with this storm.

Did you take a look at the GFS? right on cue for February! Just looking at the maps you'd be asking how strong is the Nino. Everything looks so suppressed and cold, we're bound to hit the jackpot. It's not just the deterministic models hinting at it...

Yeah ... how about that 12z GFS at 360 hours?!

Snowstormmageddon for Texas.

[srainhoutx]

FWNWS has been a downer with this storm.

Did you take a look at the GFS? right on cue for February! Just looking at the maps you'd be asking how strong is the Nino. Everything looks so suppressed and cold, we're bound to hit the jackpot. It's not just the deterministic models hinting at it...

Someone has been looking at the longer range ensembles and doing a bit of pattern recognition, I see. Let's get this weeks system out of our hair and then we can look ahead to what may well be a very interesting pattern ahead to end January into the first of February.

[Ntxw]

Someone has been looking at the longer range ensembles and doing a bit of pattern recognition, I see. Let's get this weeks system out of our hair and then we can look ahead to what may well be a very interesting pattern ahead to end January into the first of February.

I was held against my will by ---->Portastorm to look. He needed something juicy to initialize the Portastorm Weather Model.

[Portastorm]

That's right, Ntxw! The 12z GFS at 360 hours is what the Portastorm Weather Model shows as well. Imagine that?!

Looks like the next 3-4 weeks are going to offer lots for us to discuss. Couldn't ask to spend it with a better group of folks.

[Mr. Weather]

whats it show for Houston ? anything worth mentioning

[Portastorm]

whats it show for Houston ? anything worth mentioning

Define "it" please. We have been discussing a number of computer models this morning.

Also, I suggest you go back in this thread to early this morning and read the posts, especially Wxman57's fine offering. There has been a good discourse by S2K members on what's on the table for this week and possibly, beyond.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro suggests the Arctic front heading S on Thursday. That model also suggests an Upper Air disturbance a bit further W along the trough and lowering surface pressures in Deep S TX...

[Mr. Weather]

whats it show for Houston ? anything worth mentioning

Define "it" please. We have been discussing a number of computer models this morning.

Also, I suggest you go back in this thread to early this morning and read the posts, especially Wxman57's fine offering. There has been a good discourse by S2K members on what's on the table for this week and possibly, beyond.

i was referring to the long range computer models

[Ntxw]

i was referring to the long range computer models

Well, can't really say for Houston, asking that specific is basically giving a 2 year old a crayon to draw the maps and seeing what it shows...just as accurate that far out. But the pattern overall looks good for Texas as a whole, damp and chilly.

[Snowman67]

FWNWS has been a downer with this storm.

Did you take a look at the GFS? right on cue for February! Just looking at the maps you'd be asking how strong is the Nino. Everything looks so suppressed and cold, we're bound to hit the jackpot. It's not just the deterministic models hinting at it...

Yeah ... how about that 12z GFS at 360 hours?!

Snowstormmageddon for Texas.

Hour 372 doesn't look bad for us down in SE Texas either Now if it would just pan out that way.....

[Portastorm]

Mr. Weather, check your PMs please.

[Ntxw]

Here we go again, European is teasing us! 1 week from today.

[wxman57]

I'd take the 12Z GFS at 372 hours with a grain of salt. Since it's having a hard time getting the 2-3 day forecast right with the current pattern, I'd be wary of believing a 15-day forecast.

I notice that both the GFS and Euro take Thursday's storm system eastward and right out to sea as a weak low over the weekend. Canadian develops another big nor'easter. Considering the GFS and Euro did the exact same thing with last week's big nor'easter (and the Canadian nailed it), I'd keep a close eye on the Canadian for this week's weather.

Now neither the Canadian, Euro or GFS actually indicates that the sub-freezing Arctic air will advance across Texas prior to the upper trof passing on Thursday, limiting the coverage and amounts of any freezing rain/sleet. I'm not so sure about that, still. Let's see what starts moving south out of Canada tomorrow. The air there is quite a bit colder than last week.