Texas Winter 2010-2011

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Ntxw
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#2361 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 17, 2011 7:01 pm

Aw geez, thanks guys! Couldn't have done without my fellow members particularly those here in the Texas thread!

And I like that award show Idea! I think MOTM (though very honorable) shouldn't be just one person but many for different categories :cheesy:. It's no fun not being able to share it with others :P

Back on topic! Personally I have had doubts about frozen precip mid to late week. But I trust Wxman's wise words and knowledge of this type of a set up. Though he never forecasted frozen precip, he's done a great job portraying the possibilities of an 'event'. That alone is a rarity at least lol. Mr heat miser!
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Re: Re:

#2362 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Jan 17, 2011 7:18 pm

iorange55 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:In other S2K news ... congratulations to our own Ntxw for being Member of the Month!!

:cheesy:



A very deserving MOTM! We need to have an award show pretty soon. All kinds of categories, and hopefully the MSU guy from last year will make a surprise appearance to accept his award for "Craziest prediction ever to come true"


LOL, ain't that the truth! It sounded crazy when he made it, but he was spot on.

Congrats Ntxw - you deserve the award. :D

And another for nailing the snow event a week ago!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2363 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 17, 2011 8:44 pm

Image Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2364 Postby iorange55 » Mon Jan 17, 2011 8:54 pm

A 25 degree drop? Not bad. You can definitely see it pouring down.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2365 Postby downsouthman1 » Mon Jan 17, 2011 9:23 pm

I'm not liking the lack of any precip forecast west of Central Texas, but the New Mexico Forecast Office is. That's basically saying the storm will affect New Mexico, then lose its moisture supply & then who knows for our area? Makes me wonder if the "poop east" forecast from last week was accurate afterall.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2366 Postby iorange55 » Mon Jan 17, 2011 9:32 pm

The NAM might possibly be looking a little colder. Well it might be colder but no precip really.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2367 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 17, 2011 10:22 pm

downsouthman1 wrote:I'm not liking the lack of any precip forecast west of Central Texas, but the New Mexico Forecast Office is. That's basically saying the storm will affect New Mexico, then lose its moisture supply & then who knows for our area? Makes me wonder if the "poop east" forecast from last week was accurate afterall.


New Mexico will get its snow from this system mainly due to the upsloping of the low level winds in that area. The high pressure coming down from Canada will cause the east-northeasterly winds to rise due to New Mexico's higher terrain. As the air mass gains altitude it quickly cools down adiabatically, create clouds and then precipitation. We unfortunately don't have the terrain to aid in lifting any moist airmass around here. We have to rely on other means like frontal lift and upper air divergence to help produce precipitation around here. It appears we'll be lacking the upper air divergence needed to cause any moderate to heavy precip with this next event.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2368 Postby wall_cloud » Mon Jan 17, 2011 10:57 pm

orangeblood wrote:New Mexico will get its snow from this system mainly due to the upsloping of the low level winds in that area. The high pressure coming down from Canada will cause the east-northeasterly winds to rise due to New Mexico's higher terrain. As the air mass gains altitude it quickly cools down adiabatically, create clouds and then precipitation. We unfortunately don't have the terrain to aid in lifting any moist airmass around here. We have to rely on other means like frontal lift and upper air divergence to help produce precipitation around here. It appears we'll be lacking the upper air divergence needed to cause any moderate to heavy precip with this next event.


I wouldn't put too much stock into the lack of upper level divergence in a winter weather scenario. Most winter weather is driven by isentropic ascent or frontogenetic forcing (I know big words). These are much more gentle lifting mechanisms that tend to have much lower vertical velocities (thus less divergence aloft). This lift is generally greatly sloped (say from south to north) over the colder air so the lifted layer may not even get above 400-500 mb. Now in a convective environment you are correct. The vertical updrafts have much less tilt and require/produce strong divergence aloft.

Does that mean you'll be getting winter weather? Got me. I'm on my weekend and haven't looked a map in nearly 36 hours!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2369 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 17, 2011 11:22 pm

Looks like the leading edge of the cold front separating the cold air is knocking on Kansas' doorstep while the brutal cold air is oozing into Nebraska. Lets see how far south it makes.

Image

GFS at initialization 0z, roughly the same time.

Image

NAM at 3 hrs from initialization (again roughly the same time as the current temps)

Image
Last edited by Ntxw on Mon Jan 17, 2011 11:41 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2370 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 17, 2011 11:33 pm

wall_cloud wrote:
orangeblood wrote:New Mexico will get its snow from this system mainly due to the upsloping of the low level winds in that area. The high pressure coming down from Canada will cause the east-northeasterly winds to rise due to New Mexico's higher terrain. As the air mass gains altitude it quickly cools down adiabatically, create clouds and then precipitation. We unfortunately don't have the terrain to aid in lifting any moist airmass around here. We have to rely on other means like frontal lift and upper air divergence to help produce precipitation around here. It appears we'll be lacking the upper air divergence needed to cause any moderate to heavy precip with this next event.


I wouldn't put too much stock into the lack of upper level divergence in a winter weather scenario. Most winter weather is driven by isentropic ascent or frontogenetic forcing (I know big words). These are much more gentle lifting mechanisms that tend to have much lower vertical velocities (thus less divergence aloft). This lift is generally greatly sloped (say from south to north) over the colder air so the lifted layer may not even get above 400-500 mb. Now in a convective environment you are correct. The vertical updrafts have much less tilt and require/produce strong divergence aloft.

Does that mean you'll be getting winter weather? Got me. I'm on my weekend and haven't looked a map in nearly 36 hours!


Thanks for the feedback wall_cloud. Just an amateur trying to learn as much as possible with all of these winter weather events.

What do you think is the most glaring component that is lacking for this weeks event for central and north Texas ? It appears, to me at least, to be the upper level dynamics conducive for producing significant winter weather setting up across Oklahoma and not down into Texas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2371 Postby iorange55 » Mon Jan 17, 2011 11:42 pm

GFS still showing something interesting for late this month. It'll change, but least the signs are still good.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2372 Postby wall_cloud » Tue Jan 18, 2011 1:10 am

orangeblood wrote:Thanks for the feedback wall_cloud. Just an amateur trying to learn as much as possible with all of these winter weather events.

What do you think is the most glaring component that is lacking for this weeks event for central and north Texas ? It appears, to me at least, to be the upper level dynamics conducive for producing significant winter weather setting up across Oklahoma and not down into Texas.


No worries...orangeblood. I respect that you are trying to learn.

Keep in mind that I have looked at charts for like 1 minute to respond to this post but I think the most glaring problem will be the lower/upper level components being out of phase. Its been talked about ad nauseum on this thread and simply means that the bulk of the lift/precip will occur before the cold air arrives. However, I do anticipate a trowal forming as the upper low approaches east TX and will likely result in some wrap around precip. I'll analyze some more models and give my quick and dirty (and by no means thorough) thoughts.
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#2373 Postby wall_cloud » Tue Jan 18, 2011 1:14 am

as I say that I sit here after midnight and just realized that my current temperature is 58 degrees which is 3 degrees above our normal max temp. strange.
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#2374 Postby wall_cloud » Tue Jan 18, 2011 2:09 am

a cursory glance at the models tells me that the cold air is forecast to arrive in north TX during the day Thursday. the NAM suggests a more realistic baroclinic zone across northwest TX with the modified arctic air already plunging south on the backside of the surface low across west TX. It also shows a nice thermal ridge at 850mb which would indicate strong warm advection and likely isentropic lift across north TX. I think we could expect an active warm conveyor belt with light/moderate rain occurring across the region (which I believe is underdone by the NAM).

The front then sweeps south and east across north TX, very near DFW by midday and continues to barrel south with strong cold advection setting in throughout the remainder of the day/night. The upper level trof is forecast to swing through the area pretty quickly which would mean the precip would shut off fairly quickly as subsidence overtakes the region. The models also suggest an open wave as the system moves across the Plains but given the strength of the baroclinic zone along the arctic boundary I would not be surprised if the low closed off and developed a modest region of precipitation wrapping around the low.

I had planned on showing some sounding examples from Bufkit but I'm on a new PC and I'm having password/FTP issues so you'll have to do without! Bottom line, I tend to forecast arctic fronts a bit faster than anticipated by the last front (last week) arrived slower than I had anticipated. So I'm not necessarily going to jump on board with that tendency yet. Put it this way, if the front arrives early (before 18z), I would expect some type of winter mix or light changeover but don't expect a whole lot. This system is moving pretty quick so it won't last long. If the front is slower, you may only get rain. Right now I'd lean toward a quicker change over across northeast TX. DFW, you may miss out again. We sure will down here.

In summary, some differences do exist between the GFS/NAM but they are not significant regarding the larger scale features. I did not analyze the GEM/ECMWF/Ensembles etc due to the brevity of my post (and the fact that a pissed off 2 year old interrupted me!). I think you'll see more liquid precip in north/northeast TX but could see a changeover to sleet/snow before it all ends Thursday evening. I wouldn't anticipate significant winter wx but that's why you have an NWS office there. I'm sure they've analyzed the crap out of this scenario while I've been enjoying some 40 year old Virgin and chips and salsa on my day off!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2375 Postby ravyrn » Tue Jan 18, 2011 4:00 am

Well weather.com has picked up on the wintry solution and has rain/snow showers forecasted for Little Elm, TX (25 miles north of Dallas) on Thursday. Still no mention of a wintry solution from Ft. Worth NWS.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2376 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jan 18, 2011 7:18 am

Some temperature updates this morning, front separating the cold air is saying hello to Oklahoma. Some impressive temperature drops in the northern/central plains.

Image Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2377 Postby Portastorm » Tue Jan 18, 2011 7:29 am

Not quite the trajectory I would prefer for a strong Arctic blast into Texas ... too much of a northwest-southeast component to the angle.

Given that and the latest modeling showing the progressive nature of the upper trough axis, I think it is time to fold up my tent and concede defeat. The likelihood of a winter event in Texas later this week looks to me to be a real longshot.

Meh ... I hate to keep wasting this cold air with no precip to go with it. :(
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2378 Postby Kelarie » Tue Jan 18, 2011 8:06 am

Shreveport and their talk of winter precip...looks like a really low chance according to them...

THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL DIVE SE
THROUGH THE ROCKIES/PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SERLY RETURN FLOW QUICKLY COMMENCING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON THE RETURN ACROSS E TX LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
AREAWIDE THURSDAY. THE STRONGEST FORCING/BEST DEEP LYR MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS SE OK/SW AR THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TROUGH...THUS HAVE RETAINED LIKELY POPS FOR THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...HAVE LOWERED POPS DOWN TO CHANCE ACROSS E TX/N LA GIVEN
THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS QUICKLY VEERING
WRLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC/850MB FRONT. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY
FALL WITH THIS MUCH STRONGER COLD FROPA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...BY THE TIME THE MUCH COLDER AIR SWEEPS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE GONE. THUS...CHANCES FOR
SEEING ANY WINTRY MIX. CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...AND HAVE REMOVED
MENTION AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...BEFORE TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE TO NEAR CLIMO BY
THE WEEKEND.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2379 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jan 18, 2011 8:26 am

Portastorm wrote:Not quite the trajectory I would prefer for a strong Arctic blast into Texas ... too much of a northwest-southeast component to the angle.

Given that and the latest modeling showing the progressive nature of the upper trough axis, I think it is time to fold up my tent and concede defeat. The likelihood of a winter event in Texas later this week looks to me to be a real longshot.

Meh ... I hate to keep wasting this cold air with no precip to go with it. :(


I'd agree, Portastorm. If the Arctic air doesn't sink south across Texas tomorrow, well in advance of the upper-level trof then chances of any significant ice event from Dallas southward are quite low. And I'm just not seeing the signs of a significant southward push of Arctic air today. That means the near-freezing or sub-freezing air arrives just about as (or after) the precip ends across Texas on Thursday. Still a fair shot at winter precip from the Red River area northward across OK, but it doesn't look like a long-lasting event.
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Re:

#2380 Postby northtxboy » Tue Jan 18, 2011 8:30 am

wall_cloud wrote:a cursory glance at the models tells me that the cold air is forecast to arrive in north TX during the day Thursday. the NAM suggests a more realistic baroclinic zone across northwest TX with the modified arctic air already plunging south on the backside of the surface low across west TX. It also shows a nice thermal ridge at 850mb which would indicate strong warm advection and likely isentropic lift across north TX. I think we could expect an active warm conveyor belt with light/moderate rain occurring across the region (which I believe is underdone by the NAM).

The front then sweeps south and east across north TX, very near DFW by midday and continues to barrel south with strong cold advection setting in throughout the remainder of the day/night. The upper level trof is forecast to swing through the area pretty quickly which would mean the precip would shut off fairly quickly as subsidence overtakes the region. The models also suggest an open wave as the system moves across the Plains but given the strength of the baroclinic zone along the arctic boundary I would not be surprised if the low closed off and developed a modest region of precipitation wrapping around the low.

I had planned on showing some sounding examples from Bufkit but I'm on a new PC and I'm having password/FTP issues so you'll have to do without! Bottom line, I tend to forecast arctic fronts a bit faster than anticipated by the last front (last week) arrived slower than I had anticipated. So I'm not necessarily going to jump on board with that tendency yet. Put it this way, if the front arrives early (before 18z), I would expect some type of winter mix or light changeover but don't expect a whole lot. This system is moving pretty quick so it won't last long. If the front is slower, you may only get rain. Right now I'd lean toward a quicker change over across northeast TX. DFW, you may miss out again. We sure will down here.

In summary, some differences do exist between the GFS/NAM but they are not significant regarding the larger scale features. I did not analyze the GEM/ECMWF/Ensembles etc due to the brevity of my post (and the fact that a pissed off 2 year old interrupted me!). I think you'll see more liquid precip in north/northeast TX but could see a changeover to sleet/snow before it all ends Thursday evening. I wouldn't anticipate significant winter wx but that's why you have an NWS office there. I'm sure they've analyzed the crap out of this scenario while I've been enjoying some 40 year old Virgin and chips and salsa on my day off!

lmao,,I love this guy!!!
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