2010 Tropical Cyclone Reports

[Ad Novoxium]

Gaston at least was able to reach depression status. Only ten years back, another named storm may not have even done that:

Satellite data was the only source of position or intensity information to track this storm, except for a few wind reports from drifting data buoys. The classification of Ernesto as a tropical storm is somewhat uncertain, as QuikSCAT surface wind estimates on the 2nd indicated an open wave rather than a closed circulation. This was contradicted by visible satellite imagery that showed a tiny swirl of clouds near the deep convection. Since the forward motion was near 15 knots, it may very well be that there was no closed circulation. However, the data are inconclusive.

[CrazyC83]

No real surprises on Otto.

[CrazyC83]

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Some other storms I would personally adjust:

Danielle - I don't think she was ever a Cat 4. Recon only supported 105 kt and that was near peak intensity based on satellite. I would put Danielle's peak as 110 kt, with a pressure of 940mb, just before the Recon flight.

Earl - Surface obs were very close to supporting a hurricane over Nova Scotia. Since it is likely the strongest winds were not measured, I would go with an intensity of 65 kt at landfall (pressure 959mb).

Igor - Very difficult to assess the peak intensity since there was no Recon. While Recon once available consistently found a weaker-than-Dvorak storm, that was after it became so huge. I would adjust the lowest pressure to 920mb though, but reduce the peak intensity to 130 kt.

Karl - It seemed to peak just before Recon got there. As a result, I would increase his peak intensity to 110 kt. The pressure rose dramatically before landfall but the winds didn't respond as fast. Nonetheless, I have a hard time keeping it as a Cat 3 with a pressure of 976mb. I would reduce the landfall intensity to 95 kt as a blend of the data.

Richard - It really became so much better organized after Recon left in the last few hours. Recon at that point supported 75-80 kt. I would increase the landfall/peak to an uncertain 85 kt, with a pressure of 979mb.

Tomas - Surface and damage reports suggest Tomas peaked as it passed over St. Lucia. Based on subsequent Recon and trends, I would go with a peak intensity of 90 kt at that point.

[HURAKAN]

Darby is up in the EPAC - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-EP052010_Darby.pdf

[Ad Novoxium]

Tropical Storm Hermine's report has been posted. The report states that 11-E died over Mexico to the point where they can't count as the same continuous system (although the remnents of 11-E did reform).

[Andrew92]

Also, Hermine raised to 60 kt at landfall.

-Andrew92

[wxman57]

Found a good plot of the 2010 tracks on the NOAA news site:

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Eleven-E report is up at first post of thread.And look at this very interesting fact that occured after it was no longer a TD.Excerpt from report below.

After genesis, the depression moved northwestward across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and it made landfall near Salina Cruz around 0700 UTC 4 September. The cyclone turned northward after landfall, and it degenerated to a low pressure area later that day over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. In an uncommon occurrence, the low continued northward into the Bay of Campeche on 5 September, where it re-developed and became Atlantic Tropical Storm Hermine.

[Macrocane]

So, that confirmed what we suspected, 11-E's remnants became Hermine.

[Hylian Auree]

TCR for Julia now available. o:

[CrazyC83]

Peak intensity for Julia is 120 kt. Not a lot of information available so much of it is guesswork (way too far away for Recon).

[cycloneye]

The vacations are over as some reports were released today. Hurricane Alex,TS Bonnie,H Danielle,TS Matthew,H Paula and H Shary reports are up at the first post of thread.

[HURAKAN]

Great to see Paula's intensity increased to tropical storm by the time it brushed Central America.

[CrazyC83]

Going through them:

Alex - Seems reasonable to me given the position and location of the SFMR winds. A case could be made for 100 kt (since the SFMR placement would support a solid 95 kt at that time and it was still strengthening) but I would want to see better data for that.

Bonnie - Based on ship and surface obs, would have gone 45 kt for a peak intensity and 40 kt at Florida landfall.

Danielle - Disagree with leaving her a Cat 4. Recon only supported 105 kt and it wasn't strengthening fast enough to make it appear that it gained that much after it left. I would have gone with 110 kt as peak intensity (pressure 940mb).

Matthew, Paula and Shary - All seems reasonable. Matthew may have reached 55 kt based on the wind data post-landfall though.

[cycloneye]

I am now waiting for Igor to see how was the peak intensity and for Tomas to see how high were the peak winds as it moved thru St Lucia.

[CrazyC83]

I am now waiting for Igor to see how was the peak intensity and for Tomas to see how high were the peak winds as it moved thru St Lucia.

My personal estimate, based on the surface obs we had for Tomas, is 90 kt in St. Lucia (and that was peak intensity IMO). As for Igor, I would drop the peak intensity to 130 kt, since once Recon came, it was always below Dvorak estimates (due to its large size), however, I would also lower Igor's peak pressure to 920mb.

[CrazyC83]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL072010_Earl.pdf

Earl report is out. Indeed, it was a hurricane when it hit Nova Scotia, as supported by surface observations.

[CrazyC83]

Some changes I would make to Earl:

- The intensities in the Caribbean are probably too high based on Recon observations and the jump to 115 kt was too fast. I would have placed the intensity at 90 kt at 30/0600 (-5), 100 kt at 30/1200 (-5), 105 kt at 30/1800 (-10), 110 kt at 31/0000 (-5) and only had it at 115 kt briefly at 31/0600 when the pressure was 931mb, before dropping back to Cat 3. Dvorak likely played a role in maintaining its intensity.

-Since Recon found a lower pressure in its very last pass (958mb), the late pressures are probably a bit too high. Also based on that, I believe that Earl dropped to a tropical storm at 04/0000 (agreement with Recon), then returned to hurricane intensity at 04/0600 based on the start of the later reorganization.

-I would have gone 70 kt for landfall intensity. The measurements in the 60s were spread over large areas, and over water it probably would have been stronger. I would have also kept it at 65 kt (hurricane intensity) over PEI. Based on the Western Head observation and the fact it was not likely dead calm at the time, the pressure was probably 959mb at NS landfall and 964mb at PEI landfall (based on the later ship observation of 969mb/41 kt).

[CrazyC83]

Richard now out. Made landfall as a Category 2 (not 1 as operationally estimated).

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL192010_Richard.pdf

[HURAKAN]

Richard now out. Made landfall as a Category 2 (not 1 as operationally estimated).

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL192010_Richard.pdf

Agreeable. We all knew it was more intense when it was making landfall.