GFS Bombs a Noreaster on Jan 21, 22.

[GCANE]

Right on the heels of the mid-week system.

This time looks like a possible major snow dump for New England this weekend.

Right now looks like GFS bombs it Friday evening off Long Island.

Other globals agree.

[GCANE]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
702 AM EST TUE JAN 18 2011

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...
MODELS STILL HAVE NOT QUITE DECIDED ON WHETHER THE NEXT STORM WILL
BE COMING STRAIGHT EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY OR WHETHER THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL PREDOMINATE AND LEAD TO A MORE VIGOROUS
COASTAL LOW COMING UP THE COAST. THE GFS HAS THIS SOUTHERN
SOLUTION WITH A LOW WINDING UP TO 983 MB JUST INSIDE THE
BENCHMARK WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AN EASTWARD MOVING SYSTEM THAT ENDS
UP IN ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATION BUT A BIT WEAKER AT ONLY 994 MB.
THE GGEM HAS A COMBINATION WITH THE OHIO VALLEY LOW TRANSFERRING
ITS ENERGY TO A LOW MOVING UP THE COAST WHICH ENDS UP OVER WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE NAM IS DEEP AT 12Z FRI WITH 988 MB OVER DELMARVA.

AT THE MOMENT...AM BELIEVING A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. AM EXPECTING A
QUICK DUMP OF SNOW... ON THE ORDER OF 4 TO 8 INCHES... LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...ENDING IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT
FAR NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ESPECIALLY N AND W OF I-95
IN MA/RI. SNOW COULD CHANGE TO RAIN IN SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST
MA. IF THE MORE WESTERN SOLUTIONS TURN OUT TO BE CORRECT...THEN
MORE OF THE REGION WOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN WHICH WOULD CUT
AMOUNTS DOWN A BIT. WITH MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING IN A 12-HOUR
PERIOD...IT IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE HEAVY DURING THE MORNING RUSH
HOUR CAUSING TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.

HAVE UPPED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI.

THE STORM WILL WIND UP INTO A VERY INTENSE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA WHICH WILL CAUSE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. LOWS WILL
APPROACH ZERO DEGREES IN NW MA AND SW NH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WIND
CHILL INDICES IN THOSE REGIONS REACHING 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO.

SATURDAY-MONDAY... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL FEEL LIKE WINTER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER TEENS IN MANY AREAS AND
MAYBE ONLY HITTING 12 OR 13 IN SW NH.

DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE
USED MAVMOSGUID FOR TEMPS WHICH SHOULD REACH 10 TO 15 BELOW
ZERO...THAT IS THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE...IN NORTHWEST MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH. LOWS COULD REACH NEAR ZERO IN THE GREATER BOSTON
AREA. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLY WIND CHILL WARNING WILL
NEED TO BE ISSUED AS THE WIND CHILL INDICES DROP TO 15 TO 25 BELOW
ZERO THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL/FIELD
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL/FIELD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL

[srainhoutx]

Some additional data will be in the 12Z ingest regarding this storm via Winter RECON mission...

NCEP Operational Status Message
Tue Jan 18 14:56:56 2011 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 181456
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1454Z TUE JAN 18 2011
12Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION IS RUNNING ON TIME..
7 DROPSONDES AND 7 FL REPORTS OFF THE ERN US COAST WERE AVAILABLE
FOR 12Z GFS INGEST IN SUPPORT OF THE ONGOING EC STORM..
$$
SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[Metalicwx220]

There is Noreaster after another. Where is there so called break this winter? SNOWMAGGEDON LOL