Texas Winter 2010-2011

[DonWrk]

How do the models get the information they need to portray certain events from days away?

Data on current conditions (winds, pressure, moisture, etc.) at all levels of the atmosphere are fed into the models (called initialization). The models then use a series of very complex mathematical equations that attempt to extrapolate forward from the current conditions. Each model uses a slightly different set of equations. That's why they don't always match up as far as their forecasts.''

Lack of data can be a big problem in the longer range. For example, there aren't too many observations west of the U.S. across the Pacific, where many of our storm systems originate. Without good initialization data, the models have a hard time predicting the future.

So I take it that the actual data from these models have been crunched every single way where there couldn't be a better prediction from say, putting "this" model and putting "that" model together when certain things happen? Not sure if that made sense, but hopefully you see where I'm getting at.

[srainhoutx]

A very interesting pattern ahead. That parade of storms in the NW flow does not look to end anytime too soon. Anyone notice the return to a blocking regime near Greenland?

[wxman57]

So I take it that the actual data from these models have been crunched every single way where there couldn't be a better prediction from say, putting "this" model and putting "that" model together when certain things happen? Not sure if that made sense, but hopefully you see where I'm getting at.

What you're describing is something similar to the FSU superensemble used to predict hurricane tracks. Sometimes the best solution is to use a combination of models, not a single model. Meteorologists do that when making their forecasts. The physics of each model are under constant scrutiny. Each year, subtle (or not so subtle) changes are made to each of the models, trying to improve the models' handling of specific features.

[DonWrk]

What you're describing is something similar to the FSU superensemble used to predict hurricane tracks. Sometimes the best solution is to use a combination of models, not a single model. Meteorologists do that when making their forecasts. The physics of each model are under constant scrutiny. Each year, subtle (or not so subtle) changes are made to each of the models, trying to improve the models' handling of specific features.

So pretty much there has been many people try to come up with certain algorithms of probability and such that no one has really nailed something that can improve the data from the models instead of how the models get the data?

[Brandon8181]

Well thats it I'm on the snow bandwagon for next week. Better turn out better than the last snow storm.

I'm on ALL the snow wagons!

[wxman57]

What you're describing is something similar to the FSU superensemble used to predict hurricane tracks. Sometimes the best solution is to use a combination of models, not a single model. Meteorologists do that when making their forecasts. The physics of each model are under constant scrutiny. Each year, subtle (or not so subtle) changes are made to each of the models, trying to improve the models' handling of specific features.

So pretty much there has been many people try to come up with certain algorithms of probability and such that no one has really nailed something that can improve the data from the models instead of how the models get the data?

Yes, there is constant work on the model physics to try to get the physics right. But even if they ever get the physics just right, there can still be problems with either bad or missing data that can really wreak havoc in the longer range forecasts.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Hmmmm, im not sure if you guys have talked about this yet since i may have missed a few pages, but the CMC is interesting at hr 132 and 228. Looks like we may need a little bit more cold air but there is plenty of moisture.

[Portastorm]

You DFWers are going to like the 12z GFS.

[orangeblood]

You DFWers are going to like the 12z GFS.

and it looks almost identical to last night's European run.

[rkbjunior]

You DFWers are going to like the 12z GFS.

That doesn't sound good for us Central Texaners

[downsouthman1]

You DFWers are going to like the 12z GFS.

That doesn't sound good for us Central Texaners

Actually, this system looks pretty dynamic. As the cold air will be near us at the time the precip falls, even subtle differences in storm track can cause this to have varying results. I wouldn't count any of us out, as this is still about 5 days away.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS for Dallas is indicating surface temps in the mid to upper 30s during the precip. GFS-projected vertical profile has the freezing level up around 8,000 ft during the precip. That would mean cold rain for the Dallas area. I suppose a few sleet pellets would be possible with that projected profile - just as the precip ends.

Question is - will the airmass across Texas be colder than the GFS is forecasting? If it is, then we may have a much better chance at some winter weather. I'm not seeing anything to indicate that yet, though.

[wxman57]

You DFWers are going to like the 12z GFS.

That doesn't sound good for us Central Texaners

The same GFS run has Georgetown in the mid to upper 40s Sunday evening with rain. Currently, it appears as though Sunday night's event may closely mirror tonight's, meaning winter weather mostly north of the Red River up in OK.

[orangeblood]

12Z GFS for Dallas is indicating surface temps in the mid to upper 30s during the precip. GFS-projected vertical profile has the freezing level up around 8,000 ft during the precip. That would mean cold rain for the Dallas area. I suppose a few sleet pellets would be possible with that projected profile - just as the precip ends.

Question is - will the airmass across Texas be colder than the GFS is forecasting? If it is, then we may have a much better chance at some winter weather. I'm not seeing anything to indicate that yet, though.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/dfwgfs12zjan19.gif

My guess is that it would be underestimating the cold air. Considering the model is probably attempting to modify the cold air to the north but isn't factoring in the fresh snow pack that is about to be laid down across Oklahoma and Kansas with this upcoming storm. Nearly 2/3rds of the Country if not more will be covered in snow by Friday.

[Kelarie]

You DFWers are going to like the 12z GFS.

How about us Northeast Texans?

[wxman57]

My guess is that it would be underestimating the cold air. Considering the model is probably attempting to modify the cold air to the north but isn't factoring in the fresh snow pack that is about to be laid down across Oklahoma and Kansas with this upcoming storm. Nearly 2/3rds of the Country if not more will be covered in snow by Friday.

That's possible. Depends on how much of a snow pack we get with tonight's/tomorrow's storm.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Canadian (GEM) suggests that the Upper Low to the W will be the bigger issue for TX @ hour 144...Congrats Portastorm...

[Portastorm]

You DFWers are going to like the 12z GFS.

That doesn't sound good for us Central Texaners

We (Central Texas) will get nothing and like it. (just like the season has gone thus far).

[Tireman4]

You DFWers are going to like the 12z GFS.

That doesn't sound good for us Central Texaners

We (Central Texas) will get nothing and like it. (just like the season has gone thus far).

Spaulding....you will get nothing and you will like it......great movie... Caddyshack for those who did not get it!!


Spalding Smails: I want a hamburger. No, cheeseburger. I want a hot dog. I want a milkshake. I want potato chips
[gets cut off by Judge Smails]
Judge Smails: You'll get nothing, and like it!

[orangeblood]

You DFWers are going to like the 12z GFS.

That doesn't sound good for us Central Texaners

We (Central Texas) will get nothing and like it. (just like the season has gone thus far).

Not according to the 12Z Canadian. It shows a widespread winter storm moving across the state around the middle of next week. I believe this model has had the best track record over the last few weeks as well.