Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Tireman4]

I hate to say this...when Wxman57 buys it...I will buy it. I am sorry. His track record has been pretty good so far....

[srainhoutx]

Someone call 911. I hear Portastorm isn't feeling too well after the Canadian solution...

[txagwxman]

Someone call 911. I hear Portastorm isn't feeling too well after the Canadian solution...

Canadian solution looks promising. ECMWF out in a bit.

[Portastorm]

Someone call 911. I hear Portastorm isn't feeling too well after the Canadian solution...

Canadian solution looks promising. ECMWF out in a bit.

Yeah, let's see what the King has to say here in a few minutes. That Canadian solution was ridiculous and unbelievable. I loved it!

[txagwxman]

ECMWF borderline Monday morning DFW---thicknesses near 540, 850 mb temps near 0C. 2m temps are in the mid to upper 30s Sunday night/Monday morning. Probably a cold rain.

[srainhoutx]

ECMWF borderline Monday morning DFW---thicknesses near 540, 850 mb temps near 0C. 2m temps are in the mid to upper 30s Sunday night/Monday morning.

It looks like the next short wave may well be the stronger of the two. Close call for N TX as the Canadain showed at 108.

[srainhoutx]

It's a step in the right direction...

[Ntxw]

It's a very good trend. It's only Wednesday! Lots of time to ingest Portastorm's data into them and create havoc . I still call for snow next week somewhere in TX (outside of the panhandle of course )

[Tireman4]

I am waiting for an update from the Portastorm Winter Storm Center. I will not budge until I hear from them.

[gpsnowman]

I am waiting for an update from the Portastorm Winter Storm Center. I will not budge until I hear from them.

Me too. And wxman57s response. I need some good news before I go to work. Looks promising. This could be it!

[Portastorm]

Muchas gracias to Tireman4 and Ntxw!

Like his favorite college football team ... one which wears burnt orange, Portastorm and his Weather Center are in the "what went wrong" mode and still re-visiting forecast techniques after a dismal performance and this week's forecast bust of "major winter storm in north Texas."

The skeptic in me believes Dallas and Houston will see snow or sleet before Austin does. But regardless, we are doing all we can to ingest winter-favored data into the models!

[wxman57]

I am waiting for an update from the Portastorm Winter Storm Center. I will not budge until I hear from them.

Me too. And wxman57s response. I need some good news before I go to work. Looks promising. This could be it!

Models are having a hard time predicting these upper air impulses from 2-3 days out, much less 6-7 days out. We (in Texas) really need to get some colder air in place before there's a chance of much winter weather south of the Red River. Maybe that'll happen this weekend. We'll see. Next Tuesday could get interesting across central to north Texas if we get some colder air down here.

[Ntxw]

Like his favorite college football team ... one which wears burnt orange, Portastorm and his Weather Center are in the "what went wrong" mode and still re-visiting forecast techniques after a dismal performance and this week's forecast bust of "major winter storm in north Texas."

Ehh what's a week off accuracy?! When we look back we'll see that you had the time frame right and pattern, just a matter of luck with which impulse!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Wow, both models look promising. I REALLY want snow this year in houston to make it three in a row. Never been done here. Im with wxman that we need some pretty cold air to go with it.

I am reading that the MJO is at phase 7-8, when should we expect this moisture to be reaching our neck of the woods?

[txagwxman]

ECMWF would be light snow flurries for Dallas next Tue, and not a full fledge storm. Precip amounts < .10, but thicknesses 534 on Tue...2m temps in the upper 30s...950 mb temps 32F.

[Ntxw]

Well the one different thing about the Canadian's snowstorm is it cuts the low off. If that can happen, we wouldn't need it to get too cold. Lets hope one of these shortwaves can wrap themselves up! That's the best way I can picture snow for areas beyond the red river valley.

[txagwxman]

Wow, both models look promising. I REALLY want snow this year in houston to make it three in a row. Never been done here. Im with wxman that we need some pretty cold air to go with it.

I am reading that the MJO is at phase 7-8, when should we expect this moisture to be reaching our neck of the woods?

I don't think we will get snow in Houston this year. Tuesday would be our best shot, but even that is marginal at best.

[wxman57]

Wow, both models look promising. I REALLY want snow this year in houston to make it three in a row. Never been done here. Im with wxman that we need some pretty cold air to go with it.

I am reading that the MJO is at phase 7-8, when should we expect this moisture to be reaching our neck of the woods?

I don't think we will get snow in Houston this year. Tuesday would be our best shot, but even that is marginal at best.

I don't see any real chance at snow down here Tuesday, as the air aloft will almost certainly be above freezing for quite a ways up. However, our greatest snowfalls in history have typically occurred around the 2nd week of February. Unfortunately, winter is far from over for Houston. I'm still waiting for my warm, dry, sunny La Nina winter...

[srainhoutx]

Yep. Just look at that cold air heading S on the long range Euro...

[txagwxman]

Wow, both models look promising. I REALLY want snow this year in houston to make it three in a row. Never been done here. Im with wxman that we need some pretty cold air to go with it.

I am reading that the MJO is at phase 7-8, when should we expect this moisture to be reaching our neck of the woods?

I don't think we will get snow in Houston this year. Tuesday would be our best shot, but even that is marginal at best.

I don't see any real chance at snow down here Tuesday, as the air aloft will almost certainly be above freezing for quite a ways up. However, our greatest snowfalls in history have typically occurred around the 2nd week of February. Unfortunately, winter is far from over for Houston. I'm still waiting for my warm, dry, sunny La Nina winter...

That is what I meant. I don't see any chance here. Maybe a few flurries DFW Tue (if the Euro correct).