Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Macrocane]

Most of the region experienced today near average minimum and above normal maximum temperatures, except for:
-El Salvador where above normal minimum and near normal maximum temperatures were registered
-Nicaragua and Panama where lows and highs were near normal.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 20°C (68°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13.2°C (55.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 1.2°C (34.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.7°C (65.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.8°C (49.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.8°C (67.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 13°C (55.4°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 15.5°C (59.9°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.9°C (62.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.2°C (43.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.2°C (70.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.3°C (61.3°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27.8°C (82.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 36°C (97°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.4°C (86.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 23.0°C (73.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.2°C (97.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 24.9°C (76.8°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.3°C (82.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.0°C (59.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.4°C (90.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.2°C (72.0°F)

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain is 7pm Mon-7pmET Tues) for
Tue Jan 18 2011

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 31.1C 88F 1.4mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 29.3C 85F 1.3mm
Crown Point, Tobago 30.1C 86F 1.0mm
Point Salines, Grenada 28.5C 84F 6.6mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 28.1C 83F 13.2mm

Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.1C 86F 11.1mm
Rockley , S. Barbados 29.8C 86F 10.7mm
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 28.3C 83F 13.6mm
Vigie Airport, St Lucia 28.6C 84F 7.6mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 29.5C 85F 11.2mm
LeLamentin, Martinique 28.5C 84F 7.7mm

Golden Rock, St Kitts 28.6C 84F
VC Bird, Antigua 28.4C 83F 0.3mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 30.0C 86F 2.0mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 29.3C 85F
Kingston, Jamaica 30.5C 87F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 30.4C 86F
Havana, Cuba 27.3C 81F 48.0mm
Key West, Florida 25.0C 77F NIL (rain since 12am ET)
Miami, Florida 28.3C 83F
Nassau, Bahamas 28.6C 84F 15.0mm
Hamilton, Bermuda 19.3C 67F 16.5mm

Hato, Curacao 30.1C 86F
Flamingo, Bonaire 30.2C 86F
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 30.6C 87F

-justin-

[cycloneye]

It looks like the dry season has arrived for Puerto Rico,as it normally does during the first three months of the year.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
849 PM AST TUE JAN 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE AT MID LEVELS
WHILE ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES A UPPER LEVELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NO SIG WX FEATURES EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION OVR
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE
FROM TIME TO TIME. IN FACT...LATEST 10-DAY EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS
DO NOT SHOW ANY CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE WRN
ATLC. CURRENT MJO ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION ACROSS THE
WRN HEMISPHERE. SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF FEB BRINGS ANY
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WX PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH NO SIG WX. TRADE
WINDS 10-15 KT XCPT FOR A SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...NE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SCA WILL BE LEFT AS IS IN THE EVENING ISSUANCE. SEAS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST WED JAN 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HOWEVER...EXPECT BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS
OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS IN LLVL ERLY
WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
7 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL
SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND THERE IS A
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR MOST OF THE OTHER REMAINING WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 81 72 / 20 20 10 10
STT 84 73 83 74 / 20 20 20 20

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST WED JAN 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THE CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN 20 AND 30 NORTH WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS KEEPING MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. WITHIN THESE TRADE WINDS
PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL BRING ISOLATED...OCCASIONALLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
PUERTO RICO IN THE MORNINGS WITH A FEW SHOWERS DUE TO HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE IN THE LEEWARD PORTION OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO.


&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS AND A RIDGE IN
THE HORSE LATITUDES AT LOWER LEVELS...WILL PREVENT TROUGHS AND FRONTS FROM
REACHING THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 8 DAYS. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED TO THE FIRST 8 THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND PATCHES
OF MOISTURE WILL BRING PASSING SHOWERS TO THE AREA BUT OTHERWISE
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE GFS
SHOWS A BETTER PATCH OF MOISTURE THURSDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE IN LATER MODEL RUNS SINCE THE GENERAL
PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ IN -SHRA THROUGH
ABOUT 19/22Z. VCSH ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE
MORNING ACROSS TJSJ...TNCM...TKPK...TIST..AND TISX. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH
SUNDAY AND THE LAST OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL COME DOWN
IN THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS ON NOON THURSDAY. NEVERTHELESS
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL MEAN THAT SMALL CRAFT WILL HAVE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE EXPOSED WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 81 71 80 / 20 10 10 10
STT 74 84 73 84 / 20 10 20 10

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain is 7pmET Tues-7pmET Wed)
for Wed Jan 19 2011

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 31.2C 88F trace
Crown Point, Tobago 30.4C 86F trace
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 30.0C 86F 3.6mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 28.8C 84F 6.0mm
Rockley, S Barbados 29.1C 84F 6.9mm

Hewannora, St Lucia 28.9C 84F 11.0mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 29.3C 85F 3.1mm
LeLamentin, Martinique 29.2C 85F 8.0mm

Golden Rock, St Kitts 28.4C 83F
VC Bird, Antigua 28.7C 84F trace
San Juan, Puerto Rico 28.3C 83F

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 29.5C 85F
Kingston, Jamaica 30.7C 87F trace
Montego Bay, Jamaica 31.0C 88F
Havana, Cuba 29.3C 85F 0.2mm
Key West, Florida 25.0C 77F
Miami, Florida 29.4C 85F
Nassau, Bahamas 29.3C 85F
Hamilton, Bermuda 22.3C 72F 9.6mm

Hato Airport, Curacao 29.3C 85F
Queen Beatrix. Aruba 30.4C 86F
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 30.2C 86F

-justin-

[Macrocane]

Average to above average temperatures were registered today in the region, a few stations were not working today so I won't post all the observations that I usually do.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15°C (59°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 2.3°C (36.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.8°C (64.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.4°C (50.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.5°C (68.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.0°C (60.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.5°C (43.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.3°C (57.7°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 28°C (82°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.1°C (73.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.4°C (88.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.5°C (72.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.8°C (98.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.7°C (81.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.2°C (91.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.5°C (70.7°F)

[cycloneye]

Interesting paragraph about fires occuring because of the dry conditions developing already.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
937 PM AST WED JAN 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS... A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO
NEXT WEEK. STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD INTO NEXT WEEK WHILE
AT UPPER LEVELS RIDGING IS TO WEAKEN OVR THE WEEKEND WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOW CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AS SEEN ON TIME HEIGHTS OF EQUIV POTENTIAL TEMP WITH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LIFTING TO 700 MD AND K INDEX RISING TO NEAR
20. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS HIGHER VALUES UPSTREAM OVR THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SFC TROF PASSING BY
OVERNIGHT. SO AM EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARD
DAWN BUT STILL ISOLD CVRG.

RIDGE HOLDS STRONG AT MID LEVELS NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH ONLY
OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF MOISTURE FROM TIME TO TIME KEEPING ISOLD
SHRAS IN THE FCST. NO SIG WX FEATURES SEEN IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS
THAT WOULD WARRANT ANYTHING HIGHER THAN ISOLD POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH NO SIG WX. TRADE
WINDS 15G20KT WITH A SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUE TO HOVER BETWEEN 7-8 FT AT BUOY 41043.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS AROUND 6 FT AT FCST POINT NORTH OF PR.
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR SHIPS AND BUOY REPORTS NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AND MAKE A DECISION WHETHER TO CANCEL OR KEEP SCA FOR AMZ710.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BIG FIRE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN GUAYAMA AND
SALINAS PER SMOKE PLUME ON 88D RADAR AND AS CONFIRMED BY BOMBEROS
DE PUERTO RICO. VERY DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST
AND SRN SLOPES OF PR PER HIGH KBDI VALUES OVER 600 AND INCREASED
WILDFIRE OCCURRENCE IN THAT AREA SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR.
CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH
STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE PROMOTING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND VERY LOW TO NIL CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY EASTERLY AT 15G25MPH DURING THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT ONSHORE
COMPONENT DUE TO SEA BREEZE AND MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE BETWEEN
8-9 KFT. TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE ONE OF THE DRIEST DAYS OUT OF THE
NEXT SEVEN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FCST TO DROP BELOW AN
INCH. ANTICIPATING AN ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST AND SOUTHERN SLOPES TOMORROW.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 AM AST THU JAN 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...
MAINTAINING A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
PATTERN TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT BANDS AND PATCHES OF
MOISTURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...
RESULTING IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND A COUPLE OF PASSING...
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS IN LLVL
ERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 7 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...WITH
THE 7 FOOT SEAS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS
TODAY...WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON
AST. THERE IS ALSO A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR THE ANEGADA
PASSAGE AND THE CARIBBEAN OFF SHORE WATERS FOR TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VERY DRY CONDITIONS
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST AND SOUTH SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO PER
HIGH KBDI VALUES OVER 600 AND INCREASED WILDFIRE OCCURRENCE IN
THESE AREAS THUS FAR THIS MONTH. IN GENERAL...CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS STRONG MID LEVEL
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...PROMOTING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
VERY LOW CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS. WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN MAINLY
EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WITH A SLIGHT ONSHORE
COMPONENT DUE TO SEA BREEZE EFFECTS. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE
BETWEEN 8K AND 9K FEET. TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ONE OF THE DRIEST
DAYS OUT OF THE NEXT SEVEN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST
TO DROP BELOW AN INCH...AND ANTICIPATING AN ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER
DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST AND SOUTHERN SLOPES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 71 82 72 / 10 20 20 10
STT 84 73 84 75 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST THU JAN 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE
LOCAL AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. NWS
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT
THIS TIME...ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MINIMAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN GENERALLY FAIR
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN
THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS. THESE SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO CONCENTRATE OVER
EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.
IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES SEEN IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO PREVENT FRONTS FROM REACHING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL A BAND OF
MOISTURE REACHES THE AREA. THIS BAND SHOULD ARRIVE IN TKPK BY
20/20Z AND TJSJ BY 21/09Z. CONDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY THEN EXCEPT
FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO CIGS AND SHWRS. SOME MTN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN PR TIL 21/01Z AND IN EASTERN
PR AFT 21/06Z. SFC WINDS ARE EASTERLY 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF
18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 70 82 70 81 / 30 30 10 10
STT 73 84 75 84 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1001 PM AST THU JAN 20 2011

.UPDATE...EAST ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL HOLD ITS
PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE TRADE WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. ON SUNDAY RIDGE IS STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AS IT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST NORTHEAST...ALLOWING THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO RELAX ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...BY LATE MONDAY DAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN EXIT THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES...
THEN QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...TO
ONCE AGAIN REESTABLISH ITS HOLD ACROSS THE REGION AND TIGHTEN THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL ALSO FLATTEN ACROSS AREA NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS UPPER TROUGH
SLIDES EASTWARDS OVER THE ATLANTIC...BUT WILL STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK TO MAINTAIN AN OVERALL DRY AND SUBSIDENT PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF TRADE
WIND MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND QUICKLY APPROACHING
THE REGION THIS EVENING. THEREFORE EXPECT SOME PASSING SHOWERS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. FOR NOW...ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS PATCH OF SHALLOW MOISTURE. THEREAFTER FAIR WEATHER
REGIME EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO MAJOR CHANGES
MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WHICH FOR THE MOST PART REMAINED
FAIRLY DRY FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH NO SIG WX.
PERHAPS A BRIEF REDUCTION IN CIGS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT JMZ AND JBQ
WITH VCSH BUT PROB TOO LOW TO HAVE ANY TEMPO GROUPS.

&&

.FIRE...ACTIVE FIRE CONTINUES TO BURN IN SALINAS NEAR QUEBRADA
YEGUAS PER WELL DEFINED HOTSPOT ON 3.9 MICRON IMAGERY. LITTLE
MOISTURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
DROP TO 0.8 INCHES. MIXING HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOW BETWEEN 1-3
KFT WITH TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 10 KT FROM THE NORTHEAST RESULTING
IN VERY POOR DISPERSAL OF SMOKE. NOCTURNAL INVERSION BREAKS UP
AROUND 10 AM AST FRIDAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS RISING TO BETWEEN
3-5KFT. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AROUND 15 KNOTS
RESULTING IN GOOD VENTILATION RATES. MORE CLOUD CVR EXPECTED
TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
ABOUT A 20-30% CHANCE OF SEEING A BRIEF SHOWER IN THAT AREA BETWEEN
10AM-5PM AST. OVERALL...BETTER CONDITIONS TOMORROW AND ANY FIRES
SHOULD NOT BURN AS INTENSE AS THEY DID TODAY.

[Macrocane]

Above normal minimum (well above normal in San Salvador and Belize city) and near normal maximum temperatures were registered today in Central America.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mounatin Pine Ridge, Belize 19.1°C (66.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14°C (57°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 3.7°C (38.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.5°C (68.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.0°C (48.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.0°C (71.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 13.9°C (57.0°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.1°C (59.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.1°C (70.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.7°C (56.7°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 28.7°C (83.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26°C (79°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.0°C (71.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 36°C (97°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.2°C (86.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.9°C (69.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.7°C (98.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Esteli, Managua 25.8°C (78.4°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.2°C (81.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.2°C (91.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 23.5°C (74.3°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST FRI JAN 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...STILL EXPECT A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MAINTAINING A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. ONE OF THESE AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE FA TODAY
WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS AND SOUTH
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO...WILL RESULT IN A STEADILY INCREASING
WILDFIRE FIRE DANGER. IN GENERAL...CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE...PROMOTING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW
CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS. WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN MAINLY EAST AT
10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
ARE REMINDED TO USE EXTRA CAUTION AND TO DISPOSE OF ALL FLAMMABLE
MATERIALS IN THE PROPER RECEPTACLES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 71 82 71 / 30 10 10 10
STT 84 73 84 74 / 20 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST FRI JAN 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL
AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. NWS
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DETECTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...HOWEVER THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT...THE
FAIR WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. BUT...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS. THESE SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO CONCENTRATE OVER
EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.
IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON
MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES SEEN IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUE TO PREVENT TROUGHS AND FRONTS FROM REACHING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT
FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SHRAS DUE TO CIGS AT TNCM AND TKPK 21/18Z TO
21/22Z. EXPECT LLVL EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...A GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN
MODERATE TO FRESH AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 71 82 71 / 30 10 10 10
STT 84 73 84 75 / 20 20 20 10

[Macrocane]

Hi! Here's a summary of today's temperatures in Central America:
-Well above normal minimum and maximum temperatures occured in Belize.
-Near normal highs and lows occured in Guatemala, Nicaragua and Panama.
-Warmer than average minimum and near average maximum were registered in El Salvador.
-Cooler than normal lows and warmer than normal highs were experienced in Honduras and Costa Rica.
-Belize city and San Jose experienced their warmest maximum temperature so far this year.

The observations:

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Mounatin Pine Ridge, Belize 18.2°C (64.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14°C (57°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 6.0°C (42.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.5°C (65.3°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.2°C (48.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.3°C (66.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 14.2°C (57.6°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.9°C (60.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.4°C (41.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 20.6°C (69.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 12.7°C (54.9°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 26.9°C (80.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27°C (81°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.5°C (68.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 35°C (95°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.6°C (87.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.7°C (67.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.1°C (97.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Esteli, Managua 27.7°C (78.4°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.2°C (81.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 18.5°C (65.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.7°C (89.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.6°C (70.9°F)

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain is 7pmET Thu-7pmET Fri ) for
Fri Jan 21 2011

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 31.4C 88F 5.8mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 30.3C 86F 2.0mm
Crown Point, Tobago 30.2C 86F 2.0mm
Point Salines, Grenada 29.3C 85F 9.0mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.4C 85F 1.1mm

Grantley Adams, Barbados 29.3C 85F 0.2mm
Hewanorra Airport, St Lucia 29.3C 85F trace
Melville Hall, Dominica 29.0C 84F 7.9mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 29.6C 85F 2.0mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 28.1C 83F 0.8mm
VC Bird, Antigua 27.3C 81F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 29.4C 85F 2.5mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 28.8C 84F
Kingston, Jamaica 30.1C 86F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 30.3C 86F
Havana, Cuba 27.3C 81F
Key West, Florida 25.0C 77F 2.8mm
Miami, Florida 28.3C 83F 10.0mm
Nassau, Bahamas 28.2C 83F
Hamilton, Bermuda 20.4C 68F

-justin-

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 AM AST SAT JAN 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF PATCHY MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL EXISTING ACROSS THE ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX.
WHILE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION IS NOT EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SHALLOW
MOISTURE BREAKING OFF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND BEING CARRIED
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AROUND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WILL
BRING QUICK PASSING...ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM
GRIDS TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FOR TODAY...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 71 82 72 / 10 0 10 10

[Macrocane]

Hi. There's a weak cold front right now in the Gulf of Honduras and is associated with a 1021 mb high. The high is weak so the winds are not expected to increase significantly but the temperatures may drop slightly tonight. I will post the minimum and maximum temperatures registered today later.