Texas Winter 2010-2011

Winter Weather Discussion

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gpsnowman
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Re: Re:

#2781 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Jan 21, 2011 8:58 pm

Ntxw wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:Pay attention to Mr. McCauley tonight at 10 on channel 8 here in DFW. He dropped some hints on his 6 o'clock segment on what could happen early Feb going towards the Super Bowl. Winter magic?


I don't think he will say anything you don't already know from here :wink:. Probably something like -a ridge up into Alaska the next few weeks opening doors down to the U.S. Then something like shots of cold air but depending on trajectory we either get really cold or glancing shots. Plenty of storms lined up if one connects with the cold it gets interesting. Otherwise take the blend for the superbowl could be good or bad, wink and stay tuned-

True, but he always does a better job of talking long range than some of the others here. I do learn quite a bit from this forum and is making winter and my love of weather most enjoyable! Need some snow though :ggreen:
Some of the other tv mets that is
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Re: Re:

#2782 Postby HockeyTx82 » Fri Jan 21, 2011 9:06 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:Pay attention to Mr. McCauley tonight at 10 on channel 8 here in DFW. He dropped some hints on his 6 o'clock segment on what could happen early Feb going towards the Super Bowl. Winter magic?


I don't think he will say anything you don't already know from here :wink:. Probably something like -a ridge up into Alaska the next few weeks opening doors down to the U.S. Then something like shots of cold air but depending on trajectory we either get really cold or glancing shots. Plenty of storms lined up if one connects with the cold it gets interesting. Otherwise take the blend for the superbowl could be good or bad, wink and stay tuned-

True, but he always does a better job of talking long range than some of the others here. I do learn quite a bit from this forum and is making winter and my love of weather most enjoyable! Need some snow though :ggreen:


With such a big event and all of the money and people he better not start some hysteria based off of what he is seeing. I mean its one thing to mention it, but until we get closer does the general public really need to know about the long range. If it's going to pan out fine but to get people hyped over what a long range is showing with such a huge event at hand I think he needs to back off and let things get a bit closer before talking about it. Just my opinion.

I do have a question to the pro mets. (Use this for any type of example) Could the NFL (just in this case) go after him if he (or any met) who makes a bold prediction based off this and sends people into a frenzy for losses that they feel he caused in terms of people not showing or business around the area for say cancelations etc…? I was just curious if there is some law that protects you all from being sued over being a little eager with a forecast like he and perhaps others are with such large events being held. I have always wondered that and have never heard of that happening. I mean ultimately it’s a forecast and the weather will do what it wants and feels like.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2783 Postby iorange55 » Fri Jan 21, 2011 9:13 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:I do have a question to the pro mets. (Use this for any type of example) Could the NFL (just in this case) go after him if he (or any met) who makes a bold prediction based off this and sends people into a frenzy for losses that they feel he caused in terms of people not showing or business around the area for say cancelations etc…? I was just curious if there is some law that protects you all from being sued over being a little eager with a forecast like he and perhaps others are with such large events being held. I have always wondered that and have never heard of that happening. I mean ultimately it’s a forecast and the weather will do what it wants and feels like.


That would be the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard of. Steve is smart so I'm sure he'll say it with caution and warn everyone it's still a long ways out. Plus he won't be telling any lies and they can't sue him for showing what the models are showing right now. That would be insane if someone tried to sue for that. I'm sure they have, though.
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#2784 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Jan 21, 2011 9:14 pm

Not sure about any laws but it probabley has more to do with ratings than anything else. Plus like ntwx said he will probably just mention the setup potential than anything detailed in that timeframe.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2785 Postby HockeyTx82 » Fri Jan 21, 2011 9:16 pm

iorange55 wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:I do have a question to the pro mets. (Use this for any type of example) Could the NFL (just in this case) go after him if he (or any met) who makes a bold prediction based off this and sends people into a frenzy for losses that they feel he caused in terms of people not showing or business around the area for say cancelations etc…? I was just curious if there is some law that protects you all from being sued over being a little eager with a forecast like he and perhaps others are with such large events being held. I have always wondered that and have never heard of that happening. I mean ultimately it’s a forecast and the weather will do what it wants and feels like.


That would be the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard of. Steve is smart so I'm sure he'll say it with caution and warn everyone it's still a long ways out. Plus he won't be telling any lies and they can't sue him for showing what the models are showing right now. That would be insane if someone tried to sue for that. I'm sure they have, though.


In today's world I could see someone trying. I was just throwing it out there. And yes I do agree with you about Steve. If I sounded like I was ranting I just home from work and had a long day. But I would be curious to see what others say.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2786 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Jan 21, 2011 9:18 pm

iorange55 wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:I do have a question to the pro mets. (Use this for any type of example) Could the NFL (just in this case) go after him if he (or any met) who makes a bold prediction based off this and sends people into a frenzy for losses that they feel he caused in terms of people not showing or business around the area for say cancelations etc…? I was just curious if there is some law that protects you all from being sued over being a little eager with a forecast like he and perhaps others are with such large events being held. I have always wondered that and have never heard of that happening. I mean ultimately it’s a forecast and the weather will do what it wants and feels like.


That would be the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard of. Steve is smart so I'm sure he'll say it with caution and warn everyone it's still a long ways out. Plus he won't be telling any lies and they can't sue him for showing what the models are showing right now. That would be insane if someone tried to sue for that. I'm sure they have, though.

Come to think of it, ratings would only play a small role in his forecast, if at all. Steve is smart like you said and I always enjoy his insight when it comes to winter weather.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2787 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 21, 2011 9:18 pm

NAM is still changing, it's digging this weekend's trough way back at 500mb. Not that there is any significant moisture but just stating how the models are still changing even a day+ out.
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#2788 Postby gboudx » Fri Jan 21, 2011 9:28 pm

I don't see how any wintry weather would have much, if any, impact on the Super Bowl and those who would be attending. Most likely would be flight delays. Let's remember where the potential Super Bowl teams are coming from; Chicago, Green Bay, Pittsburgh or New York. These are all cold weather fans used to dealing with wintry precip.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2789 Postby opticsguy » Fri Jan 21, 2011 9:49 pm

Obama deciding to show up will do more to disrupt the Super Bowl than any storm. Shutting down all the airports for the time he's in DFW, shutting down freeways while his entourage moves about...that is a headache. I heard that several hundred private jets are headed for Addison and other smaller airports, but if Obama is in town, they have to jump through hoops to land or take off. They might as well land in Greenville and take a limo.
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#2790 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Jan 21, 2011 9:52 pm

Well, said opticsguy. Go Packers! (sorry to get off topic)
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2791 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Jan 21, 2011 9:52 pm

We're getting a bit off topic, folks... :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2792 Postby opticsguy » Fri Jan 21, 2011 10:00 pm

sorry, but I'm rooting for the Pack, also. ADS and a couple of the other airports aren't allowed to use de-icing fluid, so if it does ice up, these people are stuck. Welcome to TX in February.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2793 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jan 21, 2011 10:17 pm

Off Topic=For the newbies that may not know=We have a Sports only forum where the members go and talk about all sports.

viewforum.php?f=17

Now let's return to the topic. :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2794 Postby opticsguy » Fri Jan 21, 2011 10:27 pm

weather shutting down smaller airports because they can't de-ice doesn't seem like a sports topic.
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#2795 Postby Metalicwx220 » Fri Jan 21, 2011 10:38 pm

TIME TO GLOAT!!!! This is TONIGHT!!
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
645 PM EST Friday Jan 21 2011


Synopsis...
high pressure to the distant northwest will give way to a developing
area of low pressure southeast of the area tonight. The low will deepen
as it moves NE Saturday and could bring a wintry mix of precipitation to
some eastern areas during Saturday. High pressure will build in wake
of the low Saturday night and Sunday...with a strong high pressure
wedge to develop early next week. Low pressure will then impact the
area during the middle of next week...with dry high pressure for
later in the week.


&&


Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
an area of Arctic high pressure centered in the Ohio Valley
tonight will slowly weaken as it elongates east-west tonight. At
the same time we are keeping a very close eye on a strong short
wave diving into the Southern Plains. That short wave will
strengthen as it reaches the northern Gulf Coast late tonight and
will trigger the development of a surface low along the baroclinic
zone in the area from northwest of the Bahamas and eastern Florida. Depending
upon how strong the short wave gets...how sharp the associated
short wave trough becomes and exactly where the surface low forms
and its future movement will have large bearings on the forecast.


With the back edge of the opaque cloud cover to clear pretty much
everywhere we look for temperatures to drop quickly with the dry air mass
this evening. Dew points just upstream are as low as the teens as
of late afternoon...and this will allow for temperatures to plunge with
sunset. There are some single digit dew points in the upstate and
Piedmont...but those are not presently expected to penetrate this
far south. While this is taking place as the short wave triggers
cyclogenesis over the SW Atlantic...isentropic lift will gradually
develop overnight with warm advection clouds to return back north
after midnight. How quick these clouds return will impact the fall
of temperatures...but we are anticipating that most places will be down
in the 30s when the blanketing effects of the clouds move back in.


While the initial upper jet will have shifted southeast this evening...a
secondary jet will move in late tonight...with the local area to
see upper divergence within the right rear quadrant of the 115-125 knots
jet. The upper forcing and the associated cyclogenesis suggests
that some wintry precipitation could break out late tonight...mainly in
the 09-12z time frame. However...the precipitation in the clouds will
need to fall through some dry air in the lowest few thousand feet.
This sets the stage for evaporative cooling...and we look for at
least a small chance of a winter mix of precipitation to begin close to
daybreak over the easternmost parts of the forecast area. This
would generally be near and east of US-17. With evaporative cooling
and surface temperatures down close to the freezing mark there would be
the risk of snow...sleet or freezing rain in the SC. But with a
little more of nose of warm air aloft and slightly higher surface
temperatures in southeast the precipitation would be more in the form of
rain...freezing rain or sleet.


On station meteorologists have considered issuing a Winter Weather
Advisory for the mix of precipitation. Given that there is still some
uncertainty as to whether or not the mixed precipitation will make it
onshore...and that the bulk of any winter weather event would be
Saturday...we have opted to not issue the advisory. The evening
and overnight forecasters will need to reassess the
situation...and a Winter Weather Advisory certainly could be
issued. All interests should carefully monitor National oceanic and atmospheric administration weather radio
all hazards for any changes that occur. And keep in mind that a
small change of the position of the low and its associated upper
short wave could mean a world of difference in the forecast.


There will be a sharp delineation between where we see wintry
precipitation and where nothing occurs late tonight. As a result...many
inland areas will not be impacted by anything more than some
clouds. And it is those far inland areas that will see the coldest
temperatures tonight...ranging from the middle 20s along the northwest tier...to
the upper 20s and lower 30s further east...except for a few middle
30s right along the beaches.


&&


Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Monday/...
Saturday...challenging forecast this period as an area of low
pressure develops well off the northern coast of Florida early and
then strengthens as it tracks northeast well off the South Carolina
coast late in the day. There looks to be a trough extending from the
low back toward the coast which will be a source of surface
convergence while a sharp upper trough shifts across the southeast
states. The big question is how much moisture will make it onshore
and how strong the upper trough and associated shortwave are. At
this point...the 12z/21 GFS is most aggressive with the quantitative precipitation forecast and has
colder temperatures likely due to the significant low-level wet
bulbing effects. It gives 1-2 inches across the Charleston
tri-County area with the highest amounts along the NE portion of
Charleston County. Am not ready to jump on this one model run but
most of the latest models...including the 21/15z sref...do at least
show light snow accumulations...mainly south and east of Interstate
95. Will keep precipitation chances rather low and only mention snow
accumulations of around a tenth of an inch across Charleston
County/eastern Berkeley County...which should mainly be on
non-paved/elevated surfaces. There will likely be a mix of
snow...sleet and possibly freezing rain at the onset...ending from
the south by early afternoon...transitioning to mainly snow as it
ends across the Charleston area by late afternoon. Temperatures will
be tricky as much depends on the precipitation duration/intensity.
Went with highs in the middle to upper 40s...coolest north and near the
coast...but temperatures will likely remain in the 30s where
precipitation occurs.


:D :D :D :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2796 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 21, 2011 10:40 pm

^ I think you should keep that in the Carolinas/Deep south thread, a lot of clutter on the Texas thread tonight. GFS is running, will be interesting if it can keep up the 12z trends.

Edit: Again at hour 60 you can already see the disparity between the NAM and GFS. That's a little surprising at such a range. (Implications for the Tues frame storm). GFS has really backed away.
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#2797 Postby HockeyTx82 » Fri Jan 21, 2011 11:24 pm

I really liked what McCauley did tonight, he did a great job. That was pretty neat to watch. SO I guess to sum it up we just don't know, yet........ :cheesy:
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#2798 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 21, 2011 11:38 pm

And the 0z GFS takeths. Less cold, less snowy (almost none). Give it another 12 hours and we'll have a blizzard again with 0 degrees :cheesy:. Does have the storm though at 240-252 ish, just not as cold this go round.
Last edited by Ntxw on Fri Jan 21, 2011 11:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#2799 Postby somethingfunny » Fri Jan 21, 2011 11:39 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:I really liked what McCauley did tonight, he did a great job. That was pretty neat to watch. SO I guess to sum it up we just don't know, yet........ :cheesy:


Just got home, will have to check out the 11:00 rebroadcast on Channel 52/14/whatever it is.
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Re:

#2800 Postby northtxboy » Fri Jan 21, 2011 11:45 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:I really liked what McCauley did tonight, he did a great job. That was pretty neat to watch. SO I guess to sum it up we just don't know, yet........ :cheesy:

ya I liked it to,,he is good at what he does,I got all excited when his model went from thunder storms to snow storm!!!! :eek:
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