SPAC: WILMA (06F/08P) - Tropical Cyclone

[HURAKAN]

Consensus

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 14.1S 174.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 174.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 14.4S 173.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 14.8S 172.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 15.6S 171.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 16.9S 171.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 21.0S 175.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 24.8S 178.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 29.0S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 173.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM WEST OF PAGO
PAGO, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH WAS BASED ON A 220047Z
AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, NFFN,
AND PHFO DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. OBSERVATIONS
FROM TAFITOALA, SAMOA ARE REPORTING A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE DECREASE OF
4 MB WITHIN 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH FOR THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL
THEN STRENGTHEN AND REORIENT IN A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION,
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TURN SOUTWESTWARD. TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY STEADILY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES INTO AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER LOWER
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, TC 08P SHOULD BEGIN
WEAKENING AROUND TAU 72 AND BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN THE
TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER, THE MODELS DEPICT DIFFERENT TIMING OF
THE TURN. GFS DEPICTS A SLOWER TURN TRACKING THE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN
SAMOA TO PAGO PAGO, WHILE NOGAPS AND GFDN SHOW A FASTER TURN PRIOR
TO REACHING SAMOA. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 211700Z JAN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPS21 PGTW 211700) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS
13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 230300Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

22/0232 UTC 14.3S 174.0W T2.5/2.5 08P -- Southeast Pacific

35 knots

[HurricaneBill]

Next name on the list: "Wilma"

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 22/0222 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD06F [998 HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.1S 174.1W AT
220000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION.TD06F MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST ABOUT 6 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CLOSE TO THE CENTRE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
CLOCKWISE WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH
EAST TO SOUTHWEST WITHIN 80 TO 150 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM CENTRE OF
TD 06F DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH AND UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. CIMMS INDICATES A
MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 28C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED
ON 0.35 LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT 2.0 MET=2.0 PT=2.0. FT BASED ON DT,
THUS T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS MOVE TD06F
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 36 TO 42 HOURS THEN SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD06F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
220830 UTC.

[P.K.]

NWPS01 NFFN 221200
TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMING BULLETIN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 22/1314
UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 06F NEAR 13.3S 172.7E AT 221200 UTC HAS BEEN NAMED
"WILMA".

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Chacor]

460
WTPS01 NFFN 221200
GALE WARNING 055 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 22/1339 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE [995HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
13.3 SOUTH 172.7 WEST AT 221200 UTC. POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 13.3S 172.7W AT 221200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT 08 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
50 KNOTS BY 231200 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 080 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 13.8S 172.0W AT 230000 UTC
AND NEAR 14.6S 171.7W AT 231200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNEL. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.


THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 053.

[KWT]

Looking very good right now Hurakan, you can see it wrapping up!

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 22/1508 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 172.7W AT
221200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 08
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 080 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT AND WITIN 120 NAUTICAL ELSEWHERE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED LAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM
LIES ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. CIMSS
INDICATES A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29C. SYSTEM
STEERED BY A WEAK DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHERLY WIND. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON 0.55 LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT 2.5 MET=3.0 PT=3.0. FT BASED
ON MET, THUS T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS MOVE CYCLONE
WILMA EAST THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 230000 UTC 13.8S 172.0W MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 231200 UTC 14.6S 171.7W MOV SSW AT 08 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 240000 UTC 15.9S 172.1W MOV SW AT 10 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 241200 UTC 17.6S 173.4W MOV SW AT 13 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON WILMA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
220730 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

latest infrared

[Macrocane]

Impressive microwave, not that impressive IR. It has been oraganizing at a moderate rate since yesterday, if that trend continues I wouldn't be surprised if we see a stronger cyclone than forecasted though I don't believe it is going to be nearly as strong as Atlantic's Wilma.

[HURAKAN]

latest visible

[Sheronz]

latest IR

[Macrocane]

Latest advisory from Nadi:

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 22/2005 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 171.0W AT
221800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 15
KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE
CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS, EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS
BY 231200 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED LAST 24 HOURS.PRIMARY BAND TRYING
TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION.
CIMSS INDICATES A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 28C.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.7 LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT 3.0 MET=3.0
PT=3.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS
MOVE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA EAST THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 230600 UTC 12.5S 170.4W MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 231800 UTC 13.7S 170.5W MOV SSW AT 08 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 240600 UTC 15.4S 171.3W MOV SW AT 11 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 241800 UTC 17.5S 173.2W MOV SW AT 16 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC WILMA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 230230 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

latest visible



latest microwave

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 11.6S 171.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S 171.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 13.0S 170.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 14.9S 171.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.8S 172.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 18.7S 174.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 23.1S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 28.0S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 32.7S 175.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 171.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (WILMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
TIGHTLY CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A 221731Z SSMIS IMAGE
DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE. BASED ON THE IMPROVED MICROWAVE CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS WAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN 45 KNOT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, PHFO, NFFN, AND KNES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 08P IS LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH
IMPROVED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC WILMA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH STRENGTHENS AND
BECOMES THE MAJOR STEERING INFLUENCE. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER AMERICAN SAMOA WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AROUND TAU 72, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS
THE STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ET) BY TAU 96 AND COMPLETE ET BY TAU 120. TC 08P SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AROUND TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS OVER UNFAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND COULD POSSIBLY
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE COMPLETING ET.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
GFS AND UKMO. GFS TRACKS THE SYSTEM FARTHER WESTWARD INTO A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH AND UKMO TURNS THE SYSTEM ABRUPTLY EASTWARD INTO THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THESE SCENARIOS DO NOT SEEM LIKELY; THEREFORE,
THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 232100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

22/2022 UTC 11.5S 170.9W T3.5/3.5 WILMA -- Southeast Pacific

55 knots