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orangeblood wrote:Also, keep an eye on another stratospheric warming event forecast to unfold over the next 7-10 days. That is probably the trigger for this arctic outbreak for early February.
wxman57 wrote:
I had already been forecasting here in Houston for 13 years back then. I remember when the model forecasts came out a couple of days before the event (we didn't have 16 day models then, just 1 model out to 48hrs). We looked at the "hurricane" in the Gulf that was forecast and looked at each other and asked "could this really happen?" It did. A "West Gulf Low" developed south of the LA coast. The low had sustained winds of 40-50 kts with gusts to hurricane force. Seas 30-40 feet. To its east was a squall line that produced 100+ mph winds across the eastern Gulf and into the Florida peninsula. To its north was snow - heavy snow along the Gulf Coast, particularly along the FL panhandle. Heavy snow in the TN Valley. Then it moved up the East Coast and wreaked havoc there.
Now I'm not saying we're looking at such an event across the Gulf this time, but we could see a low develop in the Gulf that could bring snow down to the coast, and likely another big storm for the East Coast.
This is only a possibility at this time - it's not my forecast yet.
once again around 228-240ish. Maybe, just maybe the GFS is on to something. History has said that if the GFS grabs something for at least 4+ days of runs around 200 hours, it stands a chance. Hence our little snowstorm earlier this month.
wxman57 wrote:Portastorm wrote:Until we can get that ridge to align itself further west ... our (Texas) weather will be rather boring compared to our friends to the East. Regardless, the Portastorm Weather Center will be issuing a statement later today after the 12z runs have finished. Stay tuned!
http://img510.imageshack.us/img510/6213/test8h.gif
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That pattern above is remarkably similar to the 1993 Storm of the Century pattern.
Portastorm wrote:Not quite Metalicwx220 ... that would be 15 inches for rural Texas (Edwards, Val Verde and Terrell counties), just to the north-northwest of Del Rio. Sanderson, Texas, would be close to that amount.
wxman57 wrote:Portastorm wrote:Until we can get that ridge to align itself further west ... our (Texas) weather will be rather boring compared to our friends to the East. Regardless, the Portastorm Weather Center will be issuing a statement later today after the 12z runs have finished. Stay tuned!
http://img510.imageshack.us/img510/6213/test8h.gif
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That pattern above is remarkably similar to the 1993 Storm of the Century pattern.
. Hope the trend continues. Ntxw wrote:This storm doesn't have quite the model support I would expect for a 'superstorm'. You'd think something that powerful would have tremendous consensus even if it is taken lightly by the models getting this close to the game. ECMWF sharpens the ridge out west long term which would be beneficial to us. But then again, doesn't it always show an arctic front/better troughs a week+ out
. Looks like the AO could crash and tumble down into February. We'll have plenty of cold on our side of the Planet.San Angelo has just had bad luck....... Maybe that will change... You guys have been surrounded by some pretty good snowstorms..wall_cloud wrote:Portastorm wrote:Not quite Metalicwx220 ... that would be 15 inches for rural Texas (Edwards, Val Verde and Terrell counties), just to the north-northwest of Del Rio. Sanderson, Texas, would be close to that amount.
I'd believe that only after it happened lol. To the north in San Angelo our 24 hour snowfall record is 7.4"
Portastorm wrote:Not quite Metalicwx220 ... that would be 15 inches for rural Texas (Edwards, Val Verde and Terrell counties), just to the north-northwest of Del Rio. Sanderson, Texas, would be close to that amount.
Wouldn't that be a record or or they are used to these massive snowstorms? LOL!Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 26 guests
