Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Brent]

THREE days of wintry weather.

[Metalicwx220]

Come on! Why is it 38 degrees with light rain? Weather.com says its 39 with rain/snowshowers now. BUST! No bust for the legendary Charleston which may see accumulations today.

[Metalicwx220]

LOOK AT THIS MESS. Areas of light rain...sleet...and or flurries will push onshore across coastal areas of Charleston and Colleton counties this morning. Through 10 am...expect periods of a winter mix with little to no accumulation. Expect intensity and coverage to increase later this morning with conditions possibly transitioning over prevailing light to moderate sleet and...or snow

[Metalicwx220]

[Metalicwx220]

Not as impressive as yesterday! .1 inches of snow is better than nothing.

[Ynotndalton]

The Tues/Wed storm looks to be a northern Alabama/Georgia to Western Carolinas points northeast snowstorm.. still not convinced it will give us as much snow as the 5th .. we had 8 inches here at the georgia tenn border.

[Brent]

GFS:



NAM:

[BigB0882]

The snow map has certainly not gone the way I want it to here in Baton Rouge but still showing a little accumulation. Hopefully we can get the snow swath to expand to the East while still giving everyone in TX the same big snow. A long way out so who knows how it will end...

[Ynotndalton]

Would like to see the pressure around 995 while still around fl panhandle and southern ga

[Lane]

Looking at the gfs and nam looks like a possible winter weather outbreak for the south. On nws site it has sunny here for the 26th.

[Ynotndalton]

Doesn't look to be as widespread as the last even, more confined to north al and ga and east tenn over to carolinas. Rain snow line around Rome Ga set up in a sw to ne fashion in backside of precip shield.

[Ynotndalton]

Last storm had plenty of cold air in place already, So didn't matter if the surface low was weak and weakening. This time we are dependant on strength of surface low to pull cold air in.

[Ivanhater]

JMA



Keep in mind, this is this upcoming weeks storm. There is another possible big storm at the start of February that is getting compared to the '93 Superstorm. What a winter for the Deep South!

[Brent]

Looking at the gfs and nam looks like a possible winter weather outbreak for the south. On nws site it has sunny here for the 26th.

It'll be out of here Wednesday. The models I posted are valid at 6pm CST Tuesday. If it does snow it's going to be mostly Tuesday Night here.

I'm thinking just north of here is the bullseye as of now(I-20 or just north). Could be very similar to Christmas and the last event. I ain't hanging around here if that's the case.

Still plenty of time to change though.

There is a small chance for a mix of rain/snow or maybe some freezing rain early Monday in much the same area probably(near or north of us), but I don't forsee a big deal there and it will transition to rain quickly during the morning hours Monday.

[MississippiWx]

The models this afternoon have really trended towards a stronger Gulf low, organizing farther west than currently thought. This could bring snow chances back to Mississippi and Alabama on the backside of the departing low. This would also mean more precip for areas farther to the east in Georgia and on up the coast (i.e. more snow for the interior).

[Ynotndalton]

I'm thinking i-20 north also brent.. northeast alabama and north ga being in the sweet spot where the best moisture meets the just cold enough temps.

Been keeping an eye on the feb storm also, latest gfs runs tend to supress it more with a big bannana high to the north .. does look similar to 93 . We need a low that bombs around the al coast instead of the carolina coast

[Brent]

18z NAM

[bella_may]

What february storm are you guys talking about? The 15 day forecast doesn't show that much moisture and it won't be cold enough the first week of feb.

[Ntxw]

What february storm are you guys talking about? The 15 day forecast doesn't show that much moisture and it won't be cold enough the first week of feb.

GFS/Euro has been hinting long range. You probably won't see it in any forecast yet. This next week's storm will bring a surprise or two but looks like an Appalachian problem especially NE AL/N GA upwards. The storm will bring in a lot of warm air up from the gulf being so powerful. The next big one is the one many are talking about being a gulf 'superstorm' as mentioned by Ivanhater once the cold air has settled well beyond the coast to ring in the new month potentially.

[Metalicwx220]

What does a stronger storm have to do with snow and cold air?