Texas Winter 2010-2011

[wall_cloud]

San Angelo has just had bad luck....... Maybe that will change... You guys have been surrounded by some pretty good snowstorms..

It 's hard to forget that jan 12th 1985 snowstorm in south Texas... Many got 10-16 inches...

1998 storm dropped 9 to 12 inches around Midland

1987 storm dropped 20-30 inches in and around El Paso

2004 storms dropped 10-16 inches SE of Houston

And the February 1895 Blizzard in Houston we all dream about.... Many in SE texas got 18 inches and some places just north and east of Houston got 24-36 inches... Roof damage from something like that would be insane..

you think I WANT to see significant snow? Count me in the minority here. I've had my share of the white stuff. I can do without. Now don't get me wrong. Winter weather forecasting is a challenge unrivaled by most other areas of meteorology. I love forecasting it but driving in it sucks. Add ice into the mix and its even worse!

[southerngale]

you think I WANT to see significant snow? Count me in the minority here. I've had my share of the white stuff. I can do without. Now don't get me wrong. Winter weather forecasting is a challenge unrivaled by most other areas of meteorology. I love forecasting it but driving in it sucks. Add ice into the mix and its even worse!

Awesome! Could you forecast some for me?

[wall_cloud]

southerngale...

forecasting does not equal -removed-!

Gotta use my head and not my heart!

[iorange55]

18z is looking good so far...let's see if it still shows snow.

No huge snow storm. Close call for north texas on this run. But there is a lot of cold air on this run.




That is day 15. Long long long ways out. We'll see.

Day 16.

[southerngale]

southerngale...

forecasting does not equal -removed-!

Gotta use my head and not my heart!

Oh well, it was worth a shot.

If the models continue to tease us Gulf coasters, perhaps you'll be able to forecast it soon enough. I can dream, can't I?

[txagwxman]

Euro NADA for snow...yawn.

Just cold next weekend.

[natlib]

From the San Angelo NWS.....a hint at what could happen next weekend:

NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH TO DIVE SOUTH FROM CANADA AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DISLODGE ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS BY THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA. LATEST MODELS SHOW THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL WARM INTO THE 60S...THEN COOL DOWN IN THE 50S AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. A TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PENDING A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE
MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

[txagwxman]

southerngale...

forecasting does not equal -removed-!

Gotta use my head and not my heart!

Oh well, it was worth a shot.

If the models continue to tease us Gulf coasters, perhaps you'll be able to forecast it soon enough. I can dream, can't I?

You can't trust the GFS...ECMWF says nope...and it will probably not happen.

[Ntxw]

Euro NADA for snow...yawn.

Just cold next weekend.

I wouldn't trust the Euro too much either. ALL of the models are having troubles. How many times this year has the euro predicted a SW storm (few days ago it wanted to bury Tuesdays storm into MX)? You're right it probably won't happen, but Euro h5 maps are good for trending and a sharpening ridge with the high further north should allow more subtropical jet energy to swing on up! I hope...

[txagwxman]

Euro NADA for snow...yawn.

Just cold next weekend.

I wouldn't trust the Euro too much either. ALL of the models are having troubles. How many times this year has the euro predicted a SW storm (few days ago it wanted to bury Tuesdays storm into MX)? You're right it probably won't happen, but Euro h5 maps are good for trending and a sharpening ridge with the high further north should allow more subtropical jet energy to swing on up! I hope...

I just don't like trusting snowmaggedons from the GFS 8 days out!

[DonWrk]

So nothing is looking good in the 7 day time frame? Is that why were having to look 16 days out?

[Ntxw]

So nothing is looking good in the 7 day time frame? Is that why were having to look 16 days out?

Today shows nothing, check back tomorrow probably opposite of today. Might have a blizzard somewhere (sarcasm).

[iorange55]

So nothing is looking good in the 7 day time frame? Is that why were having to look 16 days out?

Next 7 days are looking fairly boring. After that though it gets really interesting. We'll see what happens. Also the possible snow storm has been 11 days out or so. Not 16. Not that it matters.

[amawea]

It's the same old song and same old dance with the models. They always show some kind of catastrophic winter weather event this time of year at 10 days out and they are all liares!

[wall_cloud]

and everyone always gets excited.

[gboudx]

and everyone always gets excited.

Of course, it's model stuff. My rule of thumb for years has been to wait for the models to show it at 72 hours. At that point, I might start to believe it. At 48 hours, confidence grows. Then at 24 hours, it becomes simply "wait and see" because as anyone who lives here can attest, we've seen forecasted sleet/snow be nothing more than a cold rain, and cold rain turn to sleet/snow.

[iorange55]

and everyone always gets excited.

I don't think it's as much excitement as it is just something to talk about. Sure a huge storm is not likely to come, but I'd rather the GFS show that then nothing at all. If it's showing that then at least we have a chance at some kind of wintry weather, rather it be just a little or a lot.

As long it's there it's worth talking about.

[Metalicwx220]

How are yall so sure it won't happen? Models are going to have the storm again. Just wait and see.Maybe even tonight.

[Ntxw]

and everyone always gets excited.

I don't think it's as much excitement as it is just something to talk about. Sure a huge storm is not likely to come, but I'd rather the GFS show that then nothing at all. If it's showing that then at least we have a chance at some kind of wintry weather, rather it be just a little or a lot.

As long it's there it's worth talking about.

You are totally right! The rollercoaster ride is part of the fun! Many say people up north aren't as excited for snow. It's the same with model watching I guess. If you know you're always going to get it, what's the fun in that?! It's all of the heartbreaks that make the one time even sweeter.

[iorange55]

How are yall so sure it won't happen? Models are going to have the storm again. Just wait and see.Maybe even tonight.

I'm not sure it won't happen. It's just not likely at this point. I'm sure the 0z will have it again tonight, but I won't trust it till it gets closer to the event.

As I was saying though either way I take it as a good thing. I'd rather it show something, then nothing at all. Trends are nice.