Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Metalicwx220

#3001 Postby Metalicwx220 » Sat Jan 22, 2011 4:14 pm

Image
A shortwave moved through the southern stream of the polar jet of the Westerlies, dropping temperatures in its wake across the southeast United States. Cyclogenesis spurred a developing surface cyclone which quickly occluded on November 20. Surface pressure gradient between this cyclone and a sprawling high stretching around its periphery from New England into the Deep South led to strong winds in the Carolinas. The cyclone deepened to a central pressure of 999 hectopascals (29.5 inHg) before swinging westward into the Outer Banks of North Carolina on November 22. At this time, a trio of upper-level shortwaves were rotating around the main closed cyclone aloft, which spurred development of a new, weaker low pressure center offshore North Carolina. This cyclone was weaker after its interaction with North Carolina until it reached New England, when renewed strengthening led to significant impacts across Long Island and southern New England. The system then began accelerating east-northeast while continuing to slowly strengthen, passing offshore Atlantic Canada on November 24. The cyclone subsequently bombed, or strengthened quite rapidly, and accelerated east-northeast, becoming a hurricane-force storm in the far north Atlantic with a central pressure of 967 hectopascals (28.6 inHg) by the afternoon of November 25 and peaking at 944 hectopascals (27.9 inHg) by the morning of November 26.[1] Slow weakening occurred soon afterward as the system slowed down and turned towards Iceland. By the evening of November 27, its central pressure had increased to 957 hectopascals (28.3 inHg) while located a couple hundred miles south of Iceland. The cyclone continued to loop cyclonically west of Iceland, absorbing a cyclone along the way as it passed southwest off the southern tip of Greenland, before a developing gale approaching Great Britain absorbed this cyclone late on December 1.[2]

[edit] Preparations
There had been indications in the forecast model guidance as early as the first week of November that weather would be unsettled/rainy across the eastern United States around November 23. Within seven days of the event, medium range forecasts generally maintained the idea of a coastal storm offshore the Southeast, though its progression out to sea remained uncertain until November 21, after the cyclone actually formed offshore the Southeast United States and began edging northeast.

[edit] VirginiaOn the Chesapeake Bay Bridge-Tunnel, officials restricted the types of vehicles that could cross the span between Virginia Beach and the Eastern Shore to cars and pickup trucks. Poquoson Public Schools were closed, and the Midtown Tunnel between Norfolk and Portsmouth was shut down because of the possibility of flooding. Sandbags surrounded buildings at Langley Air Force Base, which lies 11 feet (3.4 m) above sea level, and all computers and electrical equipment were waterproofed.[3]

[edit] MarylandThe Maryland State Highway Administration worked to clear storm drains of branches and leaves and called in more patrollers to assist motorists in the event of an accident or stranded vehicle. The administration also prepared for falling branches, by making sure the department's chain saws had enough gas.[4]

[edit] Effects[edit] FloridaSnow flurries fell as far south as central Florida on the backside of this system. Snow flurries were reported in Orange, Seminole, and Volusia Counties.[5] It was the earliest snow had ever fallen this far south, and only the second time on record snow had fallen in Florida in November.

[edit] GeorgiaSnow mixed in with rain around noon on November 21, which led to the earliest trace of snow on record in Savannah. Just inland, 5-7 inches of snow fell across extreme southeast Georgia.

[edit] South Carolina
Snowfall map for South CarolinaHeavy rains fell across northern portions of the state, with 4.13 inches (105 mm) measured at Chester. Snow mixed in with rain during the morning of November 21, leading to the earliest trace of snow on record in Charleston. Also, as the snow mixed in, thunder was heard, which is the first report of thundersnow in the history of Charleston. An inch of snow was reported just inland. Winds gusted to 44 mph (38 knots) at Folly Beach. The combination of pounding surf and high winds led to moderate to heavy beach erosion at Hunting Island, Folly Beach, Isle of Palms, Wild Dunes, and Sullivan's Island.[6]

[edit] North CarolinaHeavy rainfall fell throughout central and eastern North Carolina, with the maximum amount of 7.68 inches (195 mm) measured at Sandy Run. This precipitation combined with high tides led to river flooding across the eastern half of the state, and led to Raleigh-Durham International Airport setting a record for its wettest November on record, breaking the record from 1948. The combination of wind and rain led to the downing of numerous trees. Winds gusted to 70 knots (80 mph) at Alligator River, with numerous gusts above 50 knots (60 mph) throughout the Outer Banks, leading to beach erosion and coastal flooding, with Highway 12 being overwashed by the surge south of Oregon Inlet.[7] Power went out to 1,250 in northeastern sections of the state.[8] The combination of coastal flooding and heavy rains led to the Lumber River rising to 3.5 feet (1.1 m) above flood stage. In Nags Head, 54 homes were condemned due to damage from this cyclone.[9] At sea, the container ship Courtney L lost four containers on November 22 or 23 due to the storm. One of them, which contained Doritos bound for Costa Rica, was eventually washed ashore near Cape Hatteras.[10][11]
0 likes   

Metalicwx220

#3002 Postby Metalicwx220 » Sat Jan 22, 2011 4:17 pm

Image
A shortwave moved through the southern stream of the polar jet of the Westerlies, dropping temperatures in its wake across the southeast United States. Cyclogenesis spurred a developing surface cyclone which quickly occluded on November 20. Surface pressure gradient between this cyclone and a sprawling high stretching around its periphery from New England into the Deep South led to strong winds in the Carolinas. The cyclone deepened to a central pressure of 999 hectopascals (29.5 inHg) before swinging westward into the Outer Banks of North Carolina on November 22. At this time, a trio of upper-level shortwaves were rotating around the main closed cyclone aloft, which spurred development of a new, weaker low pressure center offshore North Carolina. This cyclone was weaker after its interaction with North Carolina until it reached New England, when renewed strengthening led to significant impacts across Long Island and southern New England. The system then began accelerating east-northeast while continuing to slowly strengthen, passing offshore Atlantic Canada on November 24. The cyclone subsequently bombed, or strengthened quite rapidly, and accelerated east-northeast, becoming a hurricane-force storm in the far north Atlantic with a central pressure of 967 hectopascals (28.6 inHg) by the afternoon of November 25 and peaking at 944 hectopascals (27.9 inHg) by the morning of November 26.[1] Slow weakening occurred soon afterward as the system slowed down and turned towards Iceland. By the evening of November 27, its central pressure had increased to 957 hectopascals (28.3 inHg) while located a couple hundred miles south of Iceland. The cyclone continued to loop cyclonically west of Iceland, absorbing a cyclone along the way as it passed southwest off the southern tip of Greenland, before a developing gale approaching Great Britain absorbed this cyclone late on December 1.[2]

[edit] Preparations
There had been indications in the forecast model guidance as early as the first week of November that weather would be unsettled/rainy across the eastern United States around November 23. Within seven days of the event, medium range forecasts generally maintained the idea of a coastal storm offshore the Southeast, though its progression out to sea remained uncertain until November 21, after the cyclone actually formed offshore the Southeast United States and began edging northeast.
[edit] VirginiaOn the Chesapeake Bay Bridge-Tunnel, officials restricted the types of vehicles that could cross the span between Virginia Beach and the Eastern Shore to cars and pickup trucks. Poquoson Public Schools were closed, and the Midtown Tunnel between Norfolk and Portsmouth was shut down because of the possibility of flooding. Sandbags surrounded buildings at Langley Air Force Base, which lies 11 feet (3.4 m) above sea level, and all computers and electrical equipment were waterproofed.[3]

[edit] MarylandThe Maryland State Highway Administration worked to clear storm drains of branches and leaves and called in more patrollers to assist motorists in the event of an accident or stranded vehicle. The administration also prepared for falling branches, by making sure the department's chain saws had enough gas.[4]

[edit] Effects[edit] FloridaSnow flurries fell as far south as central Florida on the backside of this system. Snow flurries were reported in Orange, Seminole, and Volusia Counties.[5] It was the earliest snow had ever fallen this far south, and only the second time on record snow had fallen in Florida in November.

[edit] GeorgiaSnow mixed in with rain around noon on November 21, which led to the earliest trace of snow on record in Savannah. Just inland, 5-7 inches of snow fell across extreme southeast Georgia.

[edit] South Carolina
Snowfall map for South CarolinaHeavy rains fell across northern portions of the state, with 4.13 inches (105 mm) measured at Chester. Snow mixed in with rain during the morning of November 21, leading to the earliest trace of snow on record in Charleston. Also, as the snow mixed in, thunder was heard, which is the first report of thundersnow in the history of Charleston. An inch of snow was reported just inland. Winds gusted to 44 mph (38 knots) at Folly Beach. The combination of pounding surf and high winds led to moderate to heavy beach erosion at Hunting Island, Folly Beach, Isle of Palms, Wild Dunes, and Sullivan's Island.[6]

[edit] North CarolinaHeavy rainfall fell throughout central and eastern North Carolina, with the maximum amount of 7.68 inches (195 mm) measured at Sandy Run. This precipitation combined with high tides led to river flooding across the eastern half of the state, and led to Raleigh-Durham International Airport setting a record for its wettest November on record, breaking the record from 1948. The combination of wind and rain led to the downing of numerous trees. Winds gusted to 70 knots (80 mph) at Alligator River, with numerous gusts above 50 knots (60 mph) throughout the Outer Banks, leading to beach erosion and coastal flooding, with Highway 12 being overwashed by the surge south of Oregon Inlet.[7] Power went out to 1,250 in northeastern sections of the state.[8] The combination of coastal flooding and heavy rains led to the Lumber River rising to 3.5 feet (1.1 m) above flood stage. In Nags Head, 54 homes were condemned due to damage from this cyclone.[9] At sea, the container ship Courtney L lost four containers on November 22 or 23 due to the storm. One of them, which contained Doritos bound for Costa Rica, was eventually washed ashore near Cape Hatteras.[10][11]
This storm was weak.
Last edited by Metalicwx220 on Sat Jan 22, 2011 4:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2284
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:

#3003 Postby BigB0882 » Sat Jan 22, 2011 4:17 pm

That NAM shows the 0c line being down right about in my area during the duration of the upcoming (potential) storm. However, there is no precipitation it seems. Always so close yet so far. lol
0 likes   

Metalicwx220

#3004 Postby Metalicwx220 » Sat Jan 22, 2011 4:18 pm

UUM............ I made an accident :uarrow: :oops:
0 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22793
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble

#3005 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 22, 2011 4:21 pm

Don't let the 0c fool you. This storm is a very warm storm aloft, with very little if any cold air advection. Most of the models actually show only accumulations in the higher elevations of the Apps. There might be changeovers under extreme heavy precip in the south, but overall a huge rain maker. Drought relief.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

Metalicwx220

#3006 Postby Metalicwx220 » Sat Jan 22, 2011 4:33 pm

Image
0 likes   

Metalicwx220

#3007 Postby Metalicwx220 » Sat Jan 22, 2011 7:36 pm

Has anyone checked the 18z gfs at 204 hours? :eek: I believe that is snow for north florida and virtually all of Georgia or am I reading it wrong.
Last edited by Metalicwx220 on Sat Jan 22, 2011 7:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re:

#3008 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jan 22, 2011 7:53 pm

Metalicwx220 wrote:Has anyone checked the 18z gfs at 204 hours? :eek: I believe that is snow for north florida and virtually all of Georgia or am I reading it wrong.



Image
0 likes   
Michael

BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2284
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:

#3009 Postby BigB0882 » Sat Jan 22, 2011 8:01 pm

Hey, close to Baton Rouge, bring it a little further West please. 9 days out, not in quite the worst fantasy land but still too far off for any comfort.
0 likes   

Ynotndalton
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 43
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 8:13 pm

Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble

#3010 Postby Ynotndalton » Sat Jan 22, 2011 8:55 pm

Feeling kinda iffy about this upcoming storm .. think the nws office in georgia has it right.. dew points will be too high . at 34 to 35 dewpoints with temps around 37 can't get any evap cooling in turn will be alot of cold rains going on in the southeast. saving grace will be dynamical cooling but that will only give us a back end changeover on wet grounds . not a good setup for a snowstorm.. only a 1 or 2 inch event at best unless everything trends colder.
0 likes   

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

Re:

#3011 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Jan 22, 2011 8:59 pm

Metalicwx220 wrote:Has anyone checked the 18z gfs at 204 hours? :eek: I believe that is snow for north florida and virtually all of Georgia or am I reading it wrong.



Doubt that verifies, at least for FL or southern GA.
0 likes   

Metalicwx220

Re: Re:

#3012 Postby Metalicwx220 » Sat Jan 22, 2011 9:01 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:
Metalicwx220 wrote:Has anyone checked the 18z gfs at 204 hours? :eek: I believe that is snow for north florida and virtually all of Georgia or am I reading it wrong.



Doubt that verifies, at least for FL or southern GA.

204 hours is not that far away. LOL
0 likes   

Metalicwx220

Re: Re:

#3013 Postby Metalicwx220 » Sat Jan 22, 2011 11:55 pm

Metalicwx220 wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:
Metalicwx220 wrote:Has anyone checked the 18z gfs at 204 hours? :eek: I believe that is snow for north florida and virtually all of Georgia or am I reading it wrong.



Doubt that verifies, at least for FL or southern GA.

204 hours is not that far away. LOL

Our storm disappeared. ROFLMAO!!!! Time to look forward to the 6z models.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38107
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble

#3014 Postby Brent » Sun Jan 23, 2011 1:59 am

Well the Tuesday storm is looking worse and worse unless you're in the Appalachians. Looks lik a cold miserable boring rain for most.

I'm not even looking at the early Feb storm seriously yet... way too early and it probably won't verify, lol. History says it won't. If it's showing up inside 5 days then take notice.
0 likes   
#neversummer

Metalicwx220

#3015 Postby Metalicwx220 » Sun Jan 23, 2011 9:57 am

6z gfs at 264 hours snow depth has accumulations of 3 inches throughout North florida and southwest georgia and a small area by new orleans. These runs are amazingly interesting.
0 likes   

Ynotndalton
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 43
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 8:13 pm

Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble

#3016 Postby Ynotndalton » Sun Jan 23, 2011 10:44 am

Ya this tuesday storms lookin like a bust.. yet hpc is forecasting moderate risk of 4 plus inches across north alabama and georgia .. i do not see what they see.. unless it will be very dynamically driven heavy wet snowflakes.. but around here that only ever gives a inch or two of very wet snow . nothing on roads not really an event.
0 likes   

Metalicwx220

Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble

#3017 Postby Metalicwx220 » Sun Jan 23, 2011 11:17 am

Ynotndalton wrote:Ya this tuesday storms lookin like a bust.. yet hpc is forecasting moderate risk of 4 plus inches across north alabama and georgia .. i do not see what they see.. unless it will be very dynamically driven heavy wet snowflakes.. but around here that only ever gives a inch or two of very wet snow . nothing on roads not really an event.

Probbly they mean rain. :raincloud:
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble

#3018 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jan 23, 2011 11:39 am

12z GFS is still showing a classic Deep south snowstorm...and I'm talking Gulf coast this go round :wink:

Image
0 likes   
Michael

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38107
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble

#3019 Postby Brent » Sun Jan 23, 2011 1:22 pm

My forecast:

Tuesday Night: Rain and snow. Low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Wednesday: A slight chance of rain and snow before 10am. Partly sunny, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

From Birmingham:

THERE IS A CHANCE OF MIXED WINTER WEATHER PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT. COMPUTER MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TOO WARM FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

Huntsville(again...)

Tuesday Night...Rain and snow likely in the evening...then snow likely after midnight. Moderate snow accumulations. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Wednesday...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow in the morning... Then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of snow 30 percent.
0 likes   
#neversummer

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38107
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Deep South Winterwx thread: January trouble

#3020 Postby Brent » Sun Jan 23, 2011 1:31 pm

The 12z Euro valid FRIDAY morning... big upper level low swinging through MS/AL, this would likely have its own cold air and produce snow in this setup.

Image
0 likes   
#neversummer


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 35 guests