#9 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 22, 2011 6:32 pm
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5S
146.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 146.4E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A RADAR LOOP FROM CAIRNS AUSTRALIA DEPICT A WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL HAS BECOME MORE DEFINED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND LOW (<10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE
DERIVED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) AND SST PRODUCTS INDICATE WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (>30 DEGREES C) AND FAVORABLE OHC VALUES JUST
OFF SHORE OF CAIRNS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL AND
OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.
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