SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

[srainhoutx]

26F this morning around 6:30 AM with a heavy frost. I see the 06Z GFS is back with the cold and snow later next weekend. Interesting pattern unfolding.

[KatDaddy]

29.2F this morning in N Galveston County.

[southerngale]

25° this morning, exactly as predicted. How often does that happen?

Now off to read the other thread to see if Snowmageddon is still on cue for early February.

[vbhoutex]

I managed 24.4f this morning. We spent a good 10 hours or more below freezing in my location. It has warmed up nicely now though. Looks like we are going to be having a lot of fun/challenges with our weather prognosticating skills over the next 2-3 weeks or so. I know I have said it before, but the weather we are having is eerily similar to the type of Winter weather we had in the 1970's during a cooler regime. Are we heading back into a cooler regime? Some think so.

[jasons2k]

We had a low of 28F - actually more like 27.8 like the Oak Ridge weather station: http://oakridgewx.net/wx.htm

..and we had a heavy frost too -- I was out wrapping plants in the dark last night - hehe. It sure is beautiful today!

[srainhoutx]

We will need to pay close attention the next 48 hours as some major changes have occurred in the guidance. Heavy rainfall is looking much more likely. There are even hints of perhaps some residual moisture as colder air wraps in behind the storm system. HGX covers the concerns...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
337 AM CST SUN JAN 23 2011

.DISCUSSION...
GOING TO BE MAKING SOME FAIRLY LARGE CHANGES TO THE FCST MON & MON
NIGHT IN THIS PACKAGE. ONSHORE FLOW HAS RESUMED AND EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME MCLDY LATER THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE FLOWS BACK INTO THE
REGION. GFS HAS NOW TRENDED CLOSER TO THE OTHER MODELS FROM PREVIOUS
DAYS IN SHOWING A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. EXPECT THIS
BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO NRN PARTS OF THE REGION EARLY THIS EVNG THEN
STALLING NEAR THE COAST BY SUNRISE MON. STILL NOT A WHOLE LOT OF
MOISTURE TO INITIALLY WORK WITH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WOULD
ANTICIPATE SOME SCT AREAS OF -RA IN ADVANCE. MODELS ARE IN ALL IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE LOWER
TX COAST. THIS LOW IS FCST TO MOVE NEWD UP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
MON & MON NIGHT AS A POTENT TROF DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PLAINS IN
TO N/NE TX AND LA. SINCE IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE SITUATED
CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN ADVANCE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FURTHER INLAND.
HAVE NUDGED POPS UP TO 60% ACROSS THE SRN 2/3 OF THE AREA WHICH
MAY NEED TO INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL IF GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
PERSISTS. AS THE SFC LOW AND H5 TROF PASS OFF TO THE EAST EARLY
TUESDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END AND COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL
BE ALLOWED TO FILTER IN. NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO MAKE SURE THERE`S
NOT ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT OVER BY THEN AS THE 540 THICKNESS
LINE WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS NE ZONES.

[southerngale]

This is what NWS LCH has for me next week. I'm interested in seeing if/when they start to come down with the temps.


Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy, with a low around 41.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54.

[BigB0882]

Yeah, temps seem a bit on the high side for BTR as well but I don't expect them to put anything shockingly cold until 2-3 days before.

[vbhoutex]

This is what NWS LCH has for me next week. I'm interested in seeing if/when they start to come down with the temps.


Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy, with a low around 41.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54.

Very similar to what we've been seeing here. KHOU did hint at possible much colder temps after tues/weds. It is funny how I can usually tell which model they are using by what they forecast. I expect the changes will start occurring around Sat. None of the OCMs around here go out on a limb.

[Tireman4]

[

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54.[/quote]
Very similar to what we've been seeing here. KHOU did hint at possible much colder temps after tues/weds. It is funny how I can usually tell which model they are using by what they forecast. I expect the changes will start occurring around Sat. None of the OCMs around here go out on a limb.[/quote]

Yeah, Wxman57 alluded to that earlier this week. Said they have to be really (NWS) sure of something before they commit. I would say the same for the OCM's too. I would give it to the weekend, then maybe they commit, no?

[vbhoutex]

Actually I saw Tim Heller on ch 13 tonight and he has brought the temps down substantially beginning Weds. Initial he showed tonight was high of 45 low of 32. My guess is that those will change and go lower before all is said and done.

[CajunMama]

This is what NWS LCH has for me next week. I'm interested in seeing if/when they start to come down with the temps.


Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy, with a low around 41.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54.

The day before???? You know how conservative they are.

[pwrdog]

This is what NWS LCH has for me next week. I'm interested in seeing if/when they start to come down with the temps.


Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy, with a low around 41.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54.

The day before???? You know how conservative they are.

It's starting to look like they will be dropping... Very interesting week to watch...

[PTrackerLA]

The latest GFS doesn't seem to move the cold air into Louisiana at all. Not sure if we'll even touch freezing next week now but another soaking rain seems like a good bet which will be appreciated given our deficits from last year.

[BigB0882]

I know it is my own fault for getting caught up in these models in the long range but it will be really disappointing if we don't even get the cold! I know any winter precip is slim to none on the chances, no matter what the models say, but to have the cold come so close and stop, that is just evil. Oh well, I always say there is no point to the cold if it doesn't snow so I suppose I'd rather not have it. I will try to convince myself I feel that way...

[PTrackerLA]

Well the Euro says otherwise, if this comes to fruition, we're talking well into the teens! Don't think I've ever seen Lafayette with -12 C 850mb temps, crazy!

[BigB0882]

I am confused, those are 850 MB temps, does that translate to surface? I thought the Euro barely had the freezing line to Baton Rouge but that shows around 10F but I am not sure if that map is reflective of surface temps.

[southerngale]

I realize my local NWS wouldn't just jump on some of the crazy lows predicted by the Euro and other models at various points, but looking at their forecast and reading the discussion, it's as if they're completely ignoring them, or just discrediting them. The high for Wednesday is warmer than our temps have been lately and certainly much warmer than we've been many times this winter. The discussion sounds like a regular ol' front coming down. I realize that Wednesday's forecast is 6 days out, but I've seen them go lower than this in the long range, and without guidance this cold from various models in the less than 7 day range.

I don't expect them to predict insane temps or wintry precip (as it is iffy at best at this point), but they haven't budged for Wednesday and Thursday is warm too. I don't get it.




Tuesday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38.

Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 52.

Wednesday Night: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 52.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
354 PM CST THU JAN 27 2011

<snippet>
EXTENDED GUIDANCE LOOKING A LITTLE MORE IN SYNC AS ANOTHER UPPER
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW/COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION...
AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO GOOD CHANCE FOR TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT.
HELD ONTO SMALL POPS FOR WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MINOR MODEL
DIFFERENCES.

[vbhoutex]

I am confused, those are 850 MB temps, does that translate to surface? I thought the Euro barely had the freezing line to Baton Rouge but that shows around 10F but I am not sure if that map is reflective of surface temps.

No it is not reflective of surface temps. It is reflective of temps at the 850mb in the atmosphere, which I think is around 5000 feet. There is no conversion to surface temps for that that I am aware of. If there is someone please correct me. It does however indicate that it will be very cold even to the surface.

[srainhoutx]

It's looking mighty wet this weekend...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
550 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERN BRANCH BRINGING CIRRUS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD MOST OF THE MORNING. A VERY PLEASANT DAY WILL BE ON TAP.
UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA WILL START MOVING EAST AND WILL TAP INTO
RATHER RICH GULF MOISTURE SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
RAPID INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING SATURDAY
AND THEN LL MOISTURE RAMPS UP QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL FROM
WEST TO EAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SATURDAY NIGHT
LOOKING WET AS 1-1.4" PW ARRIVE WITH THE S/W SWEEPING THROUGH
AROUND SUNRISE...HIGH POPS ARE IN ORDER. MODERATE WAA IN
PLACE...INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIM BUT LI OF 0 TO -2 POSSIBLE/CAPE
LESS THAN 400 J/KG. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL DISAGREE ON THE TRACK OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AMOUNTS...GFS HITS THE NORTHERN CWA HARD AROUND
06Z SUN...ECMWF NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST 06-15Z (AND WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY) AND THE NAM CENTRAL 8-18Z. IN THIS FORECAST HAVE
FAVORED THE HEAVIER PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAINS SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF IN THE MORNING AND LIKELY
BY 10 AM FOR THE HOUSTON AREA BUT AREAS TO THE EAST MAY STILL HAVE
SHRA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING BUT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD
INHIBIT ANY LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT.