Texas Winter 2010-2011

[wall_cloud]

I think the Concho Valley will see at least some light snow in the next 36 hours.

[wall_cloud]

will dust off my snow shovel just in case.

[Brandon8181]

^ ECMWF ensembles continues the support of everything we have talked about beginning of Feb. Cold and storm.

So when do we get to the point (as the models continue to be somewhat consistant).. what is the day / timeframe that we say "this will likely happen" .... ?

[Ntxw]

^ ECMWF ensembles continues the support of everything we have talked about beginning of Feb. Cold and storm.

So when do we get to the point (as the models continue to be somewhat consistant).. what is the day / timeframe that we say "this will likely happen" .... ?

This is not near us but the discussion is very well written. Our period to watch will be as the weekend comes to an end and we ring in a new month.

Hastings, Nebraska

ON FRIDAY...TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. A POTENT UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
FM SASKATCHEWAN...ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH DURING THE DAY AND
WINDS SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTN. IN A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...WINDS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO POTENTIALLY REACH AT LEAST
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH THE WINDS REMAINING STRONG SATURDAY
AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTS SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE COLD ARCTIC AIR SETTLING IN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z
ECMWF SUGGESTS A 1040MB/ISH SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ONTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE GFS SUGGESTS A 1050MB
SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NOSE SOUTH ONTO THE
PLAINS. THIS MAY BE ON THE EXTREME SIDE AS HPC MODEL BLEND PAGE
SUGGESTS THE DAKOTAS SFC HIGH 12Z SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 1036MB...BUT
STILL STRONGER THAN THE SURFACE RIDGE THIS MORNING...WHEN KODX
DROPPED TO -13F FOR ITS LOW TEMP. THE GEM STANDS ALONE IN
SUGGESTING THAT MORE OF A ZONAL PATTERN IN THIS TIME FRAME VS A
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO OPERATIONAL MODELS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH IS COLDER THAN HPC. HAVE NOT INCLUDED FLURRY
MENTION WITH ARCTIC SURGE BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS
DEVELOPS.

Kansas City

OF GRAVER CONCERN HOWEVER IS THE LOOMING PROSPECT OF THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE WINTER SEASON SLATED TO ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE MONTH.
THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE
THAT THE DUAL CORED ALEUTIAN VORTEX WILL UNDERGO ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AMPLE UPSTREAM
ENERGY ARRIVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. A FORCED DOWNSTREAM
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL ALIGN ITSELF ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTLINE AND
THROUGH THE STATE OF ALASKA...PHASING WITH THE PRE-EXISTING RIDGING
ALONG THE US PACIFIC COASTLINE. THE PROSPECTS OF A SINGLE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE ARCTIC CIRCLE DOES NOT BODE WELL
FOR US...ESPECIALLY AS THE POLAR VORTEX SLOWLY MIGRATES BACK
SOUTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THIS TELECONNECTION WOULD SPELL A
DIRECT CROSS-POLAR FLOW FROM THE HEART OF EASTERN ALASKA/WESTERN
CANADA...DISLODGING THE FRIGID AIRMASS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
INTO THE CENTRAL US BY THE WEEKEND WHICH MODELS REALIZE AS A
SPRAWLING SURFACE RIDGE OF 1045 TO 1050+ MB.

[Ntxw]

GFS, kind of the same pattern. Sloppy though, shortwave issues and less cold.

[iorange55]

Well....hmph. That run is less appealing. Still has the basic setup, though. Take the good with the bad. We'll see what the Euro says later.

[Ntxw]

Well....hmph. That run is less appealing. Still has the basic setup, though. Take the good with the bad. We'll see what the Euro says later.

Don't forget the Canadian! 0z actually goes out to 240 on the PSU eWall site.

GFS at times looks odd. Take the cold air coming in for instance this week. 850 temps push through Texas, while the surface temps gets cold, surges warm, then freezes over again 30s to 50s and back 30s in 12 hours.

[Snowman67]

00Z GFS run keeps the cold air N and E of Texas for the most part. As many have stated, the models have and will probably continue to flip flop for a few more days on what may or may not happen around the beginning of next month.

[iorange55]

Euro still looking good through 144hrs.

[BigB0882]

Anyone care to share a little specifics about what the Euro is showing this run?

[iorange55]

Anyone care to share a little specifics about what the Euro is showing this run?

Through 192hrs it still has the same pattern, cold coming down and the storm system to our north/west. It might not be as strong this run, but it's still there.

Well I don't believe it looks as good as yesterday. None of the models do in the 0z runs, really. But again it's all details. They're showing the basic set-up, and this time tomorrow it might be back even stronger, who knows.

[Ntxw]

Yep overall the pattern looks good. Devil in the details. We're slowly slipping into better resolution so naturally changes occurs. The overall 500mb pattern is decent, tonight's theme is bury to the Baja. It has to come out eventually! Who knows maybe tomorrow it's crash to Colorado!

ECMWF is colder this run fwiw: I do miss Canadian's superstorm yesterday though

BTW Hires (very good resolution model) suggest Tuesday would be a wee bit more interesting than we may think!

[Shoshana]

As much as I hope we get snow, I'm not going to believe it till I see it. Or till Portastorm sees it

lol of course knowing Austin, it can snow here and not there. Or the other way around.

Meanwhile I think I'll go buy some hot chocolate, just in case.

[Portastorm]

I almost feel like this forecaster is taunting me ... the whole "well, I could forecast snow but ... I won't."

****************
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
403 AM CST MON JAN 24 2011

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE TEMPORARILY DEPARTING SOUTHEAST COUNTIES INTO SE
TX BUT ANOTHER AREA OF LIFT WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE AREA AS A SWIFT
MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPS SE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A RAIN-SNOW
MIX OVER THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND INTO THE AUSTIN AREA AROUND
12Z TUESDAY...BUT THE LIFT PATTERN FROM THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
SUGGEST PRECIPITATION RATES SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MODIFY
TEMPERATURES AND THE MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED AT THE
TIME. THE GFS SUGGESTS SUFFICIENTLY COOL AIR BUT APPEARS TOO DRY
CONSIDERING THE INCREASED MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW CLOUD LAYER
EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL TX.

COLD AND DRY TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON THE HEELS OF THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FREEZE
EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE DRY LATE WEEK PATTERN WILL BE REINFORCED WITH A WEAK FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVELS POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO A
MORE MOIST PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST
CONTINUES A LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO AS PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING
TAKING PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST SETS UP A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT UPSTREAM FROM TX. THIS PATTERN WILL ATTEMPT TO DIG A POTENT
UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN US AND EVENTUALLY INTO TX NEXT WEEK. THE
RESULTING ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT OVER TX ENABLES MORE COOL
OVERRUNNING SCENARIOS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT RAINS OR MIXES. WITH A
VERY WEAK PATTERN FOR LIFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX...WILL CONTINUE
TO DOWNPLAY THE MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL AND GO WITH THE MORE
TYPICAL LIGHT RAIN SCENARIO FOCUSED TOWARD THE COAST.

[perk]

I really hate it when a forecaster does that too portastorm.

[txagwxman]

ECMWF yuk...totally backed off.

[wxman57]

Euro 192 hours through 240 hours looks quite snowy for Texas, along with a large band of mixed precip ahead of the snow. Deep cold air over the state and quite a big impulse moving in from the west. Of course, we're still 7-8 days away and the models always tend to have trouble at this range.

[srainhoutx]

You know something is up when the NOGAPS agrees with the Euro/Canadian solution.

[wxman22]

Good sign also is that many of the GFS Ensembles still show the wintry weather threat.

[txagwxman]

Euro 192 hours through 240 hours looks quite snowy for Texas, along with a large band of mixed precip ahead of the snow. Deep cold air over the state and quite a big impulse moving in from the west. Of course, we're still 7-8 days away and the models always tend to have trouble at this range.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_0z/f216.gif

I was referring to Monday...Monday the Arctic front was supposed to be all the way into Texas and it much slower.




*edited by sg to remove img tags